tbetta’s Bullets: Round 22

  • Hope You Had The Week Off

Round 22 was not kind to those who weren’t lucky enough to proceed straight through to the Prelims. We all knew it was going to be a tough round given the lack of Cats, but unfortunately it was our other Premos, not our Cat replacements, who gave us all headaches this week.

Scoring was right down with a couple of tight contests. Not many points came from Friday Night’s Hawks-Blues clash, while St Kilda vs Sydney was always going to be a dour affair. As a result, par was around 2150 this week, which would have placed you inside the top 10,000 for Round 22.

  • Tbetta Than You Vs Merv Gray Autos

This week I came up against Merv Gray Autos, brainchild of the rookie guru Chook. As you can see from our uniques, his team was a lot more… proven, averaging a good 6 or 7 points more than mine over the course of the year.

After Friday night it was pretty close, and I was happy with my decision to not trade I. Smith – 75 was a decent return, and probably more than Adcock would get (I was obviously wrong). But then Thompson went out and smashed a 151, and I was dead in the water, or so I thought. Saturday night threw in a few surprises, with Pavlich and Petrie underperforming and Cloke having a blinder. This left me 17 points ahead with my O’Keefe vs his Goodes.

And as it always goes, Goodes sunk me. For the umpteenth time in my DT career, not having the dual Brownlow Medallist came back to bite me, eliminating me from the All-Stars League. Up next week is HARF SERIOUS  vs destROY, while in the other pre-lim stjoeysonslaught takes on Merv Gray Autos.

Let’s give our boys @RoyDT and @djch00k some love on Twitter this week!

  • Big Winners

As we have come to expect all year, big wins means big points. This simple fact should be a huge deciding factor in your trades and subs for the remainder of the year.

Below is a scatter graph of the amount of tons the winning team gets, depending on the margin of the game. We can see there is a significant positive trend here, one that we accept in theory, but also actually works in practice. The one outlier there is from the Eagles vs Bombers game, where the margin blew out because the Bombers were down to 2 on the bench and ran out of legs in the last term.

When you look at the 90+ scores, the trend is even more obvious.

This gives us a good idea of who best to trade in this week, or play on your field, based on whether you think the game will be a thrashing or not.

For instance, Collingwood should smash Freo, so expect a few tons out of that one. But they play Geelong the week after, so maybe trading in someone like Daisy Thomas or Cloke isn’t that good an idea?

A better idea is trading in Hawks players, who play the Bulldogs and Suns in the last two. The Bulldogs game should be an easy win (and they are notorious for leaking DT points) and it will be a buffet against the Suns. Suckling, Shiels, Hodge and Cyril should all be on your radar for those who don’t already have them. Melbourne also has a great run home (Port and Suns!) so get on them for a unique edge.

One team that you should stay away from is the Saints. They play the Kangaroos this week, which is basically a knock-out game for a spot in the 8. I expect it to be a low-scoring struggle with not much between the sides at the final siren, suggesting a low-scoring DT affair. Then the Saints have Carlton in Round 24 which should be close as well – so stay away from Fisher, Montagna and Riewoldt if you were thinking of trading them in.

  • Red Cross

We all get that sickly feeling to the stomach when we are following the scores and see that ugly little red-cross or red sub-vest pop up. One injury can easily wreck a week; just ask Bartel or Mundy owners from earlier in the year!

There were a few significant injuries this week, let’s have a look at their best replacements.

OUT Broughton IN Suckling/Enright

Broughton has been on a downward spiral of late, and this culminated in a grand total of 2 points for the final quarter against the Roos on Saturday, being benched for most of it because of a big hit. He is considered a good chance to have a rest this week, so who to get in?

Suckling has got to be the number 1 choice. Many have him already but if you don’t, it’s time to capitalise on his great run home. An absolute bargain at 336k.

Enright is the other obvious one. It’s safer due to the fact that he’s already been rested twice this year and has just had a week off with the bye, so he should play out the next two weeks.  The run home of Sydney this week then Collingwood in Round 24 is the obvious concern, as is his $353,500 price-tag.

OUT Jobe Watson IN Shiels/Embley

Jobe Watson left the game Eagles game early with a concussion courtesy of Beau Waters and didn’t return. While he should be good for this week, he probably will be affected slightly (remember Jordan Lewis), and he has his bye in Round 24 anyway.

Shiels is a great sideways (if you have a little coin spare) for the Bomber captain. He racks it up against weak opposition, and some recent cooling in his form has lowered his price. Perfect option for the run home.

If you have no cash lying around, there isn’t much to choose from. Andrew Embley is probably your best bet, coming off two good scores and a dream run home of Brisbane and Adelaide.

OUT Pavlich IN Rioli/ LeCras

Pavlich has finally succumbed to that niggling leg injury, which leaves many teams with a gaping hole in their forward lines. With Sylvia possibly suspended, things get even worse. Who can you rely on to fill the void?

Cyril has to be the man. He’s cheap -a straight trade for Pav – at $345,200, and he has the run home and the improved fitness to deliver. His last 3 games against teams not in the running for the Top 8 are 95, 93 and 151. Get on Squirrel!

If you already have him, then the next best thing is LeCras, all things considered. Chapman and Stevie J have a bad run home, and Cloke against the Cats isn’t very enticing. LeCras, like Rioli, is also very cheap (322k) and has that same dream run home as Embley.

 

  • Makers


Dream Team is a very emotional hobby sport, which means there is always the possibility that you will let your personal feelings get in the way of good logic. Case in point; one of my mates traded in Scott Thompson a while back and I insisted straight away it was a bad idea. I didn’t really have any reason to say that, except that I’ve always disliked him as a player, and admittedly I let that get in the way of my better judgement. Anyway, Thompson decided to prove to us all on the weekend that he is an elite ball-winner and deserves to be taken seriously. 51 disposals against any team is a massive effort, and the 151 points he scored rewarded the teams who included him for a unique flavour.

With everyone sporting Cox in their ruck division, it’s fair to assume that anyone reading only had one of Mumford, Jacobs or Clarke in their side at the weekend, which is why they share 2nd spot. Mummy was magnificent against the Saints with a huge 54 hitouts and a goal contributing to his 146, while Jacobs single-handedly destroyed the Suns rucks with 47 taps of his own for the same score. Clarke was also impressive, scoring 129 as the only Docker who eclipsed the 100 point barrier, playing a Cox-like role with 12 marks and 24 possessions.

If there’s one player in the competition that destroys bad teams, it’s Travis Cloke. He was disappointing last week against the Saints’ strong defense, but opposed to what the Lions had to offer back there (not much) he was bound to capitalise. His 134 this week included 14 marks – a season-high. Hopefully the big guy doesn’t get rested like a lot of the Pies are slated to…

Colon Sylvia has been the bane of our existence for a few weeks now, but he finally hit back. Unfortunately, that hit was considered high and excessive and he was reported, which means we may still come to loathe the stocky Demon. He returned in style though, with his stats reading 29 possessions, 5 goals and a speccie! Some mercy from the MRP would be appreciated given his next two are the Suns and Port.

Alan Didak. Another one of those guys we have come to resent in 2011. His fitness has been an issue all year, given his lack of pre-season and later a calf issue. But now he seems to be getting back to where he was last year, and that includes scoring tons! He had 109 this week from 30 touches, and at 236k, he is an absolute steal if you have the trades/balls!

  • Breakers


1. Pavlich 39

2. Petrie 48

3. O’Keefe 58

4. Broughton 51

5. Howe 2

The worst-kept secret was confirmed on Saturday – Pavlich is carrying an injury. And now he’s aggravated that ankle, and is expected to miss the last two games of the home and away season. He put a lot of coaches in compromising positions this week with only 39 points before being subbed off – now he’s costing them a trade.

The up-and-down nature of key forwards is something we have come to expect in DT, but none have the sizzling heights and lacking lows that Petrie does. Was barely sighted against Freo, and was lucky to get to 48 in the end. Keep playing him though, he’ll probably smash out a 150 next week.

I talked about him earlier in respect to my side, but O’Keefe has to pop up here again in the Breakers. 58 is his 2nd-lowest score for the year, coming at a really bad time for us DT coaches. He started well, but drifted out of the game, scoring only 19 in the 2nd half. Not good enough at this time of the year O’Queef.

Greg Broughton has to go. He was an inspired mid-year pick-up when he was released through the midfield, but has struggled ever since the Hawthorn match when he suffered a mystery niggle. Lately he has been languishing in that dreaded back-pocket, and given Mundy’s return and the fact that he was benched for the last quarter after suffering a hit from Pederson at the weekend, we can expect it to continue. He had only 51 at the weekend, and probably less than that against the Pies, if he’s even fit to play.

Jeremy Howe sneaks into the Breakers with a huge score of…. 2. That’s all the Demon managed in almost 3 quarters of footy, in which he spent most of it in the negatives. Needless to say, he was subbed out. Not many played him, but there were a few who used him to cover Chappy instead of using a trade – Ouch!

  • Round 23

The Prelims are upon us, as is the Carlton bye. So Gibbs, Scotland, Judd and Murphy all go to the Chopping Block, where they’ll be sorted into Trade or Bench piles. I suggest keeping Gibbs, who will haunt you in Round 24 if you trade him out now. As for the others, it depends on trades left, etc, but consider benching as Heppell and Isaac Smith have been great cover lately.

Trades become more important than ever now, and the smart coaches will use them wisely. Beware resting and late withdrawals – I’ve been saying it for weeks, but they’re coming!

The big fantasy games this weekend are the first three – Pies vs Dockers should be a treat for coaches will a lot of Collingwood players, while the Hawks should go to town against the Bulldogs on Saturday. Geelong vs Sydney is the other important clash, and I’m expecting low scores all round, just like Sydney’s game last week.

Until next week.

 

 

Tweet me at @tbetta9.

73 Comments

  • Luckliy had the week off! Terrible all round!

  • Surprised McEvoy didnt get a mention in the breakers. Him and Okeefe cost me my game (lost by 30). Not Happy!!!

    • Great point – he was in there at 5 before I threw Howe in.

      Probably the fact that it was against the Swans meant that I already assumed he wouldn’t score so well, so it wasn’t such a surprise to me, but I can definitely see how he tainted a few scores this week.

      Fisher was another to score poorly, but again, against the Swans and almost everyone has him.

  • Great write up as usual and food for thought as well!

  • Honorable mention to Stanley in the makers?

  • Chris Knights for an honourable mention? I was rubbing my hands in glee in expectation of an easy 100+ from him against the Suns before his exclusion from last Thurday’s team list, though I guess that’s technically not a ‘breaker’…

  • Awesome write up tbetta. My opponent this week has Pavlich, Broughton and Sylvia, I only have Sylvia so that could benefit me. Any news on these whispers that Cox is likely to get rested this week?

  • great… i have gibbs, duigan, pav and sylvia… 2 trades left and 115,300 in bank…

    have no idea what im gonna do… as my plans have been stuffed up with pav and sylvia…

  • Another honourable mention goes to Leuenberger. Smashed out a 118 after his 140 last week to bring his 3 round average to 119.3. Not bad for someone who i (and samsa) picked up for 330k in round 17.

  • awesome write up as usual tbetta. They just keep getting better every week. Hopefully the boys will start you up with a contract. These articles are so good. Tbetta you are the shit, man. This article is way better then last weeks one and they just keep getting better every week. I really enjoy getting my monday dt fix and your articles are just the best because they get better every week tbetta.

    Great write up as usual tbetta A+++++, trusted seller, would buy from again, great communication, fast shipping, quick response, fast payment, fast everything, highly recommended, hassle free transaction, would buy from again, great ebayer.

    • I’m feeling a little sarcasm here…

      ‘Haters gon hate’

      • What, wasn’t I meant to say that. I just see everyone writing the same comments every week I thought I better go with it. Sure its a good article but when every second comment is “great write up as usual tbetta” it gets a bit boring. Surely you must get sick of being told how good your article is seen as you get about 50 comments the same every week.

        • Your a tosser mate

        • No, I actually love hearing it. Who wouldn’t?

          It helps me keep ‘Up and About’ and keep wanting to improve the article every week. After all, I don’t write it for me, I write it for all you guys, so it’s great to get a little appreciation.

          Also, I didn’t trade you out this week Chappy so could you please score well for me this week?

          • yes, we all enjoy the article, but you arent as likely to improve as much when every comment is “great write up as usual tbetta”.

            Should have traded me out last week, i’m aiming for 60 this week so i hope slighthawk has me in her team. I’d like to ruin her ranking some more.

          • 44Chapo, instead of being rude, sarcastic and having an attack at those that appreciate the time and effort these guys put in, why don’t you offer an improvement that could be made to the article? Or some constructive criticism?

        • A little jealous cos no-one listens to your dribble mate???

  • @tbetta
    I reckon Mummy did a better job against the Saints than the crows this week!! ;-)

    • Agreed! Great performance against a top-line ruckman in McEvoy. He was all round impressive, even 6 tackles for the big guy is a great effort.

      As for the Crows… It was the Gold Coast. Not sure if you watched the game, but the Suns defensive pressure is almost non-existent… Probably one of the only areas where they haven’t improved all year.

  • I’ll happily join the chorus of admirers, tbetta. Your posts are top notch… and gracious too! One less Cat and a bit more luck and you’d have had me easily.

  • Great stuff Tbetta, good to hear Broughton is out as my main opponent has him, as well as Pavlich, Cox, Murphy, Scotland, Gibbs and to a lesser extent…Duigan. I have Cox, Gibbs and Sylvia, but hopefully Sylvia gets off. Its so hard to trade now as the ‘rest period’ is forcing me to trade someone in that is on fire and playing this week, but might not play next week…Im looking at you Cloke and Mitchell!

    Im playing ‘stjoeysonslaught’ as well this week in one of my public leagues. I was thinking of a Bartel > Shiels trade as Geelong have Sydney and Collinwood and Hawks have the Bulldogs and the Suns. Do you think Shiels will pick up for the last 2 games?

    • I do – he scored 122 against the Bulldogs last time, and his last game at the MCG was worth 123 points. If you’re worried about him though, Hodge is another to consider given he is 12k cheaper, but he is one that the Hawks would rest if they choose to go down that path.

      Sounds like a bit of a luxury trade though, and feels a bit silly to trade Bartel out right after his bye… But if you’ve got the trades and no holes to cover, go with your gut! Could come off.

  • Ryan Griffins 3 points in the second half was a breaker for me

    • It was 7, but that still hurts… Fisher was in the same vein, only 8 in the 2nd half.

      I’m not liking the increase in fade-outs this late in the season.

  • Sorry to be the one to break it to you guys, Colin Sylvia has been offered a 2 match suspension. Thanks very much, Sylvia, never again will you be in my DT. http://twitter.com/#!/AFLcomms/statuses/105537104251076608

    • If he pleads guilty will he get only one?

      • Nope it is two no matter what

      • No. 292 points and early plea is 225. We need him to fight it!

        Pav gone for the season by the looks of it. Maybe like my DT hopes……..4 prelim’s this weekend, many starting to look shaky.

        Hope All those Hawks and Saints who sat on the bench at the end of the game get up for this week.

      • They will fight it ………… no reason not to.

        Early plea – 2 weeks
        Fight and lose – 2 weeks

    • Surely they will challenge this one, appears they have got nothing to lose…………..its 2 weeks either way so only the carry-over points that will change!!!

      • He knocked the guy’s mouthguard out with a late hit… he’s goneskies, no point challenging. Unless they have a work experience kid who needs something to do.

        • Bahahahahahahaha…..Ive got to remeber not to have a moutnhful of beer when reading these comments!
          Fvck it hurts when it goes up your nose.

  • Brad Green or Mark LeCras as Colin Sylvia’s replacement?

    • Frenchie

    • LeCras mate.

      • That is what I was thinking but Green has Port Adelaide and GC in his next two and then the spare change that I get from bringing in Brad Green allows me to upgrade Pavlich to a Jack Redden/Tom Rockliff, otherwise a majority of the premium mids are out of my price range for when I have to get rid of Pav

  • Last week i went Stevie J -> Pavbitch. This week PavBitch -> Stevie J.

    • LOL

      Pav was under an injury cloud all last week, shouldn’t have gone him (well duh)

  • Has anyone got word of how Callinan went in the SANFL?

    If I lose Pav & Sylvia he may well get a run this week…..HOLY SH¿T.

    • As far as I can tell, Callinan didn’t play because Central Districts had a bye (sometimes they play reserves for another side – not sure on this).

      But 2 weeks ago he had 16 possessions and 2 behinds, so nothing special.

      • Got a corkie that prevented him from playing out the entirety of the game. Unfortunately, he isn’t likely to play again at AFL level this year, if ever. For almost the only time this season, there is real competition in regards to getting in to the best 22 at the Crows, and it is unlikely that Bickley will play a 29 year-old Callinan, when he could test a young Jarryd Lyons instead,

  • Pavlich out for the rest of the season.

    Broughton wil miss this week with injury.

    Source: http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/121647/default.aspx

  • lol ‘O’Queefe’ :D

  • If Cox doesn’t get rested…
    Thinking, Sylvia & Pavlich >> Rioli & Didak

  • I think I’m a breaker this week…. after weeks of putting up with the crap that Sylvia dished up I finally bit the bullet and had him sitting on the bench with I Smith playing instead – so i got to watch that massive score build up on my bench then he’ll probably get rubbed out for the year anyway just to rub salt into the wounds….

    4 trades left I’ll be able to cover it but wasn’t expecting to get pantsed so badly by the bloke….

  • LOL @ Pav holding the cup. As close as he will ever get. Unless he begs the Eagles to let him play half forward flank for his last season

    • Agreed Rapture except swap “Eagles” for the mighty Crows – bring the lad home cause the 2012 cup has AFC written all over it :)

    • Maybe when Pav needs something to stir his big pot of porridge he will come knocking on the Eagles door.

  • Can someone lend me some trades?
    That would be nice.
    Thanks in advance.

  • Im expecting to loose a Premium mid to a rest either this week or next week or both im seriously considering going Krak to Maloney. Melbourne have Gc and Port to finish the season surely he is going to rack up some points in the last 2 rounds. Anyone think this could pay off?

    • Definatley worth a look, i got Moloney for Harris 2 weeks ago and he should be good for 90+ for the next 2 weeks, bargain buy at his price

    • Just checked my team and it’s full of Maggies, Hawks and Cats. Could be carnage in a R24 “general soreness fest” with literally nothing on the line for any of those three teams. Could play havoc with the overall winner too… some sleepless nights ahead for DT coaches with a shot at the Toyota!

  • Anyone aware of how many trades Dr Dream Team has? He could be covering

    Lower
    Broughton
    Gibbs
    (Toy)

    Murphy
    Callinan
    (Wallis)

    Cox
    (McCauley)

    Pavlich
    Sylvia
    Dahlhaus
    Howe
    (Lynch)

    I’m playing him this week, and would like to have an idea how many trades I need to make and cover. I know he sometimes mentions his remaining trades on the Chat Live with Dr Dreamteam.

  • great stuff tbetta!

    would you go didak, brennan or harvey for sylvia?

    and 1 out of petrie, o keefe and petrie