Dream Team Stock Market – R22

Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers, shakers and losers in the Dream Team Stock Market, where we take a close look at the movement of a selection of players, attempt to do a little short-term forecasting on the sliders and check out a few bargain blue-chips. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to getting the most out of your money/team.

Another week of excellent DT scoring has ensured some tight finals matches and judging by the drop in chatter on the blog, I’m guessing that there are some disappointed coaches out there. Actually, I make that list, having gone down by a measly 9 points in my Qualifying Final… Gutted!! Ah well, such is life in the world of fantasy football.

Nice fighting win there by the Tiges to get over Sydney, a spirited effort and well overdue. The Dees took their under-performance to a new low – the shellacking at Skilled was pretty bad, but the lack of interest and poor team cohesion against the Eagles was dismal. Game of the round was Bombers/Bulldogs, which was played in good old end-to-end attacking fashion. The Fletch/Bazza duel was a highlight, but Morris’ double-fracture was undeserved and soured a brilliant match.

The stock market held fairly steady, with no real surprises. Our favourites Mzungu and ISmith lit it up again and would no doubt have got most of their coaches over the line. Most premiums delivered too, with prices steady or up across the board. There are a few bargain uniques to be had, which is timely considering this week’s Wrangle, where we look at our missing Cats. Thankfully we have been spared any other conundrums, for now!

On The Up has been dropped as long-term stock projection doesn’t have much relevance in our current here-and-now Finals market. Likewise, On The Slide has been combined with Blue Chip Bargains for a new section called The Watchlist, where we look at the premos we can potentially bring in this week or next. Let me know if you disagree though and the regular format may be resurrected. Bear in mind that the same objective applies all through finals, including this week’s knockout matches: get your best team out there, maximised by your trades!

Sell, Sell, Sell

Yes, trades are tight and while most of us are using them for sideways swaps to cover bye players, a few of you may have the luxury of pulling a big upgrade this week. And you can fund that by cashing out one of these fat cows!

Dion Prestia $239,500 DOWN$10,900 (UP$111,000) BE85. Prestia’s value is on the decline and is projected to fall $8,400 next week, forecast to bottom out at around $220k after R23. As most will have a combination of The Gu, Isaac Smith, Krak and/or Callinan (who may be back this week), you probably won’t be relying on not-so-neon Dion to be providing FWD/MID cover.

  • Stock tip: Sell this week and you’ve gained $111,000.

Danny Stanley $319,100 DOWN$15,100 (UP$212,700) BE108. Dan’s been The Man down back for the last half of this season, but he’s slowed down a bit with a last three of 64, 77 and 83. He has a projected drop of $7,500 next week and is forecast to maintain a $300k value for the rest of the season. If you’ve got a bit of coin, it might pay to look at replacing him with his in-form team mate, Nathan Bock.

  • Stock tip: A stonking $212,700 is yours if you offload Stanley this week.

Nick Lower $279,400 DOWN$22,900 (UP$186,900) BE111. There’s no hiding the stinker Lower had against Carlton last weekend, which has sent his price into free-fall with a loss of $22,900 this week and a projected tumble of $12,600 next week. If we’re going on pure value, it’s time for him to go!

  • Stock tip: A very, very good gain of $186,900 if sold this week.

Zac Smith $239,200 DOWN$22,400 (UP$132,800) BE113. You have to love this guy’s value chart – it’s a classic bell curve, with a steady rise from the start of the season to a peak in R12-14 and now on a downward trend. Big Zac looks like he’s run his prep and is overdue for a spell, so take advantage of his remaining value and get a premium ruck in!

  • Stock tip: Sell and bank a respectable return of $132,800.

The Watchlist

Aaron Sandilands $354,800 DOWN$24,700 (DOWN$51,700) BE135. Sandi is crucial to Freo’s success and the key element in their desperate fight to make the Eight, making him an excellent stock to monitor with a projected drop of $14,200 next week to bottom out at around $340k. If you’re not playing this week, this may work out quite well for you if you don’t have to sideways trade to cover Carlton players next week.

  • Stock tip: Bring him in next week when he flatlines at $340k.

David Mundy $341,800 (DOWN$28,400) BE190. Due back this week, Mundy’s huge BE of 190 will see his price plummet to about $305k next week. With eight 100+ scores in 10 games (excluding his last injury-affected score), he’ll definitely do the job and will be outstanding value.

  • Stock tip: A steal next week at $305k!

Greg Broughton $355,200 DOWN$25,800 (DOWN$15,800) BE149. It’s a bit hard to make a call on Broughton as his role changed to a defensive lockdown assignment last weekend, which was good for a 71 but not quite up to the 100+ numbers we’ve been expecting. With a projected drop of $17,400 next week, we have another round to check his role/form.

  • Stock tip: Monitor and he may be a handy buy at around $335k next week.

Alan Didak $227,000 DOWN$27,000 (DOWN$184,100) BE79. If you’re struggling for cash, Dids may be worth a look. Malthouse looks to be tuning him up for a good hard run in the Pies’ finals campaign and his decent scores of 47 and 51 as a sub are nothing to scoff at. He is projected to drop by $8,900 next week, so keep an eye on him this weekend.

  • Stock tip: If you can’t afford better, $227k isn’t bad money for Dids this week.

The Weekly Wrangle

This week’s hot topic is the tricky ‘out’ of Geelong players. There will be quite a few teams with two or more Catters in their lineup, the most popular being Chapman (35%), followed by Enright (23%), Stevie J (19%), Bartel (17%) and Jelwood (11%). The sharp coaches will have planned for this, holding trades to go with two sideways premo-to-premo swaps or, better yet, holding trades plus a healthy bank balance to go with two upgrades of fat cows/mid-pricers to premos to really build some depth. These moggies (common Cats… Geddit?) are carrying good value and will get you a solid premo if you go sideways. For a bit of a twist, let’s have a look at some in-form uniques, rather than the vanilla premos!

Chappy’s and Stevie J’s respective values of $376,500 and $439,000 will get you a straight swap for almost any premium forward this week, well any premium in Johnson’s case. Here are a few interesting options for you to chew over…

Cyril Rioli $331,400 UP$15,000 (DOWN$25,900) BE38. Deeelicious tore it up last weekend, carding a massive 151 to show that he’s in ripping form. With a run against Carlton, the Doggies and Gold Coast, he could be the difference that gives you the edge.

Shaun Higgins $329,500 UP$1,800 (DOWN$11,500) BE66. Missy has caused his coaches plenty of grief this season, but when’s he’s up and about he’s pretty dependable for a good score with a last five of 102, 89, 78, 98 and 100. An added bonus is that his FWD/MID gives you the same flexibility as Chappy too. Just check the news and whispers coming out of the kennel before you pull the trigger – caveat emptor!

Leon Davis $369,200 UP$15,600 (DOWN$102,500) BE52. Wow, Neon has snuck under the radar at only 4% ownership, but with scores of 136, 100, 95, 117 and 89 in his last five, there’s no arguing about his form. He has been let off the leash, roaming up forward and kicking the odd goal. Put him on your shortlist to backfill Chappy.

Ricky Petterd $310,800 DOWN$8,300 (UP$24,300) BE68. Ricky isn’t considered a premium by most coaches, but a look at his upcoming run may tempt you: Richmond, Gold Coast and Port Adelaide. At a reasonable price point, a score of 103 last round against the Eagles and the Dees run home, he may be a risk worth taking.

At $353,500, Enright is up there in value with most premium defenders, but these are the form backmen of the moment.

Matt Suckling $330,100 UP$1,500 (UP$117,500) BE52. It’s all about the ceiling for defenders this year and Suckers’ is sky-high with big scores of 111, 126, 120, 133 and 141 on his season’s resume. Of course, in the DT Grand Final the Hawks play the Suns, whom Suckers piled 111 points on back in R13. Tasty? You betcha!

Nathan Bock $337,200 UP$22,900 (UP$11,100) BE52. Bock’s form is hard to ignore, with three tons on the trot – 103, 108 and 110. They’ve come against quality opposition too, including the Saints and the Cats. Definitely a genuine smokey to replace Enright.

Jelwood’s $451,300 and Bartel’s $381,500 will also get you good replacements, including…

Jack Redden $424,500 UP$3,100 (UP$94,900) BE102. Breaking out in style this year, Redden has been in red-hot form with no less than 10 centuries in his last 12 games, including a last five of 118, 111, 119, 93 and 130. Those are some serious numbers and he’s showing no signs of slowing down!

Tom Rockliff $430,800 UP$6,300 (UP$68,600) BE86. Second-year wonder Tommy Rockliff has run neck-and-neck with team mate Redden, posting 8 straight tons! He’s a scoring machine and piles on the points against all opposition, making him a very worthy prospect.

Matt Priddis $417,300 UP$9,900 (UP$28,900) BE119. While not the most fashionable midfield gun going around, Priddis is in solid form with 110, 97, 150, 82 and 107 in his last five. A run of Essendon, Brisbane and Adelaide should see him finish this season with a flourish.

Dale Thomas $376,000 DOWN$15,900 (DOWN$19,600) BE75. He seems to make an appearance in the stock market analysis semi-regularly, but this week Daisy is good bang-for-your-buck. He bounced back from a niggle with 128 against the Saints last weekend and will be one of the Collingwood guns who is unlikely to be rested leading up to AFL Finals.

Liam Shiels $370,400 DOWN$1,300 (UP$148,900) BE60. Shiels looked like he was tiring towards the end of the season, but popped up with 123 and 106 in his last two. This year he has racked up some big scores, managing a whopping 147 against the Pies and smashing out 144 against Geelong. He looks like a big-game type who could bring it home in style for you.

Michael Barlow $385,400 UP$9,200 (DOWN$70,800) BE74. Highlighted as one to watch in recent weeks, Barlow’s high work rate and DT skills have been on show with 117, 110 and 103 in his last three games. I’m a huge fan and have no doubt that he will continue to build on his current good form and crank out good scores for the last three matches.

In Review

Covering for the Geelong bye and upgrading in the rucks will comprise the majority of trading activity this week. It’s a tough balancing act, but at least this Year of The Bye is almost over. Make sure you put lots of thought into your trades this week. If you’re in the same boat as me, you’ll be staring down the barrel of a make-or-break weekend, so crunch the numbers, work the stats and throw your ideas around if you’re after feedback, because it all comes down to this one game for those who have to play this week. Choose your captain wisely, make sure that every single trade counts and good luck!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT

 

 

 

74 Comments

    • Thanks, appreciate the feedback!

      Some constructive criticism would be appreciated to improve next week’s article though… :-)

  • Second!

  • Is there any backman worth getting for Heppel this week or would you hold him for now?

    (3 trades and playing a semi final)

    Already have Gibbs, Goddard, Delideo, Broughton, Suckling, Fisher

    • That’s a pretty strong backline!

      Some things to consider regarding your Heppell trade:
      – how many Blues (other than Gibbs) you have to cover next week
      – how your team lines up with your opponents (does he/she also have Hepp?)
      – how much cash you have

      If you feel that Hepp is your weak link, check out Bock, Birchall, Martin and maybe Adcock. Though I do expect (and hope) that Hepp gets plenty of marks/kicks at Patterson’s paddock this weekend.

      • Adcock? Really? I have him and was sooooo disappointed with him on the weekend, he cost me my final and am thinking about trdaing him out this week. Can you really see him doing any good againist the Pies this week?

        • True, hence the ‘maybe’ on Adcock in my last comment. When he was last mentioned in the article I think I also added that he should be ‘taken on trust’. He’s another who will be affected by Vossy’s week-to-week role/assignment and is distinctly at the tail end of that list of four.

  • Nice work TeeTee.

    Guys, im going to Upgrade Z.Smith this week. I can afford any ruckman, who do you recon i should get it? Sandi? Goldstein? Someone else? I already have Cox.

    • Sandi really surprised me last week with his score, if you want to gamble he has the highest ceiling but also the highest chance of missing through injury.

      I went Jolly last week out of necessity.

      Mcevoy remains a solid option

      I’d lean towards Sandi then McEvoy at this stage.

  • Smith will surely not play this week so Petrie to my rucks then just enough cash to go season long bench warmer McKernan to didak

  • Nice article, maybe a two week trading strategy for next week eg. 4 trades look at ……. 2 or 1 trades left look at……..

    I’m tossing up my last trade at the moment. In the second half of the season i’ve lived by if I don’t need to trade then don’t, out of necessity. I’ve had only 4 trades left since round 14! But rose from 1100s to 200s overall in that time.

    I have 3 cats missing with adequate cover (Sylvia, Heppell and Mzungu), no finals this week I have 5 byes. Next week its Murphy, Scotland and Gibbs (Mzungu or Sylvia, Heppell and Puopolo).

    My dilema is do I bugger off Bartel this week to someone who won’t drive me insane anymore, or save it for Murphy next week, or wait and see if a premo is rested in the last week?

    If I delay it looks like Mundy will be available for the next three weeks, who is a solid option. I am guessing Pendelles will be rested, if swan gets rested in the last game it would be great if I still am holding my trade most won’t have that option.

    I’m leaning towards saving my trade for the last week and hoping swan or pendelles gets rested that I can trade out to Mitchell, to help me in the overall maybe to sneak the top 200/100.

    Thoughts Mighty Stock Market One?

    • In the absence of Aki (the Mighty Stock Market One)… One trade left? Easy, hold! The carnage will unfold and the sky will fall on our heads in R23-24.

  • Good option I think mtooler. Good article and is my dilemma this week trading Bartel and Chappy out. In order I’m thinking:

    Bartel to 1. Thomas 2. Montagna 3. Scott Thompson 4 Barlow

    Chappy to 1. Pavlich 2. Rioli 3. Cloke 4. O’Keefe

    What does everyone think of those options? Please answer me…

    • Monty has been hugely hit or miss this year, daisy may rest, Freo needs Barlow to kill it every week, same with Pav, just to make the finals.

      Rioli has been injured alot this year and he is hit or miss, much like Lecrap I brought in when Higgins went out, in what I gambled to be a season ender, wrong!, and Lecca has spudded ever since grrr.

      If consistency is your mantra then Pav and Barlow for me, even Mundy to be honest even though his price will plummet.

    • Get thomas in. I did last week and i reaped the rewards, soon you will too.

  • not sure who to choose from between 1. Gary Ablett or 2. sam mitchell

    • I’d pick Mitchell. Hawthorn keeps improving every week, have the Suns in rrd 24, and Ablett has been playing sore for a few weeks. He is at risk to miss another game unfortunately.

      • yeah that is true but i thinking that Sammy mitchell would get rested in the last round against the suns and gazza did score 156 last time playing the crows but not sure, wat u think about dale thomas?

  • Great work Tee Tee – a definite favourite article for me!

    No mention of Scotty Thompson – what do people think of him at $388K?

    • Good call Big Feller, Thommo should have been on the Jelwood/Bartel replacements list as a unique option. Though his 89 last game was disappointing (I have him in my mids), he should have a big one against the Suns this weekend.

    • Probably the most frustrating premo in the league.

  • Defenders have me thinking:

    1) Adcock – 2nd half tagging roles over the past two weeks
    2) Broughton – Tagger role over the past two weeks
    3) Lower – apart from self destructing, Mundy back no room in mids – time for the pine

    Something we all struggle with our mobile DEF is there change in role to tagging.

    Thoughts on the above, or any others???

    • Yes I agree, I predicted the Broughton, not the Adcock dilema. Im getting killed in the weeks Scotland is tagged too.

      Ever heard of Judd people, tag him !

      • Do Hawjks have a tagger? Opponent has Judd and Murphy, if they both go off for 130 I’m screwed.

        • I’m not sure mate, I don’t see alot of games, but do follow them live on dream-stats.com.

          This was interesting http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/depthchart.php?team=HW.

          Would we call Bateman a tagger? Every one of them seem to be honest footballers at the Hawks, without spectacular in locking down opponents.

          Probably go back the last 3-6 Hawks opponents and check how their mid premos faired against them to get an educated guage I reckon.

  • 5 trades left, playing this week.

    Backs: Gibbs,Scotland,Lids,Broughton,Stanley,Goddard,Adock
    Bench: J.Taylor,Pops,Jacobs

    Mids:Bartel,Ablett,Swan,Pendlebury,Boyd,Montagna
    Bench: Gu,Harris,Callinan

    Rucs: Cox,Petrie
    Bench: Lobbe,Bailey

    Fwrds: Chapman,Johnson,Goodes,Sylvia,Buddy,Riewoldt
    Bench: Howe,I Smith,Talia

    Trade options this week:
    1. Stanley > Fisher, Suckling or Bock?
    2. Chapman > Higgins?

    Next week:
    1. Gibbs or Scotland> Enright?
    2. Any other ideas what to do this week or next week would be much appreciated!

    Please boys!

    • 26k in the bank!

    • How about this week
      Chapman- Cyril
      Stanley- Suckling

      Next week
      Gibbs- Fisher

      The only reason I say Cyril is because of his good run home plus will make some cash. Will leave you with plenty of cash for the gf.

      • I like the fact if i go to Higgins it will be DPP.

        But Hawthorns run home makes it very tempting.

        • If you want DPP you could go Pavlich or Fyfe. I reckon Pavlich will be chopping now because he wants his team to go and make finals. Maybe even go ROK?

          • Pav potentially under an injury cloud!

          • Pav has been under an injury cloud for 10 weeks, only thing stopping him going under the knife is that they are only half a game out of the 8 – last week apart from his first kick (goal) struggling big time

    • You’re missing 7th fwd. Who is it, I like Mzungu and I smith solid back up there.

      With 5 trades left you could downgrade Harris, out for the year, to upgrade a fwd or back.

      I wish I had 5 trades left, that was like round 14 for me, lol!

      • Yeah sorry my 7th fwrd is Fyfe.

        But where do you downgrade Harris to?

        • Harris to 80k spud then you may be able to upgrade two rooks elsewhere and have really good cover elsewhere in case of resting players after lockout?

      • Saw Mzungu play against the blues last week and he will find himself there permanantly next year and from a DT perspective very cheap and even better if he holds onto his DPP

  • Is Didak worth the risk? Surely he HAS to improve at some point… I have 3 trades left. Conservative option is:

    This week Heppell to Suckling
    Next week, Gibbs to anyone
    And Lower upgrade to anyone with the cash from Gibbs trade

    Risky option is this week:
    Sylvia to Didak
    Heppell to Suckling
    Next week, use the money from Sylvia to Didak to upgrade Lower or Gilbert (on bench) to someone able to fill Gibbs spot for a week

    My only problem with conservative option is there aren’t that many good defenders to bring two new ones in. Already have Gibbs, Deledio, Birchall, Goddard, Fisher. Need to find two besides Suckling.

    • A lot of people have been saying “Surely he has to improve at some point” about Didak all year!

      • Well I guess at the moment his scores have been very good for a quarter of football. Surely he has to lose the vest, but still may or may not convert it into a 4 quarter effort.

        • As they say in the stockmarket – earnings certainty is everything.

          You have had 21 weeks of performance to judge players on certainty of delivery -which is what’s needed for finals.

          • Good point. No Didak for me. Might have considered it for fun if I had excess trades. Especially with Lower out now, need to accelerate my plans to move him on unfortunately.

  • Team as of round 22:
    Gibbs, Goddard, Deledio, Heppell, Broughton, Martin, Adcock (Lower, Puopolo, Taylor)
    Murphy, Pendlebury, Swan, Boyd, Mitchell, Ablett (Chapman, Prestia, Jacobs)
    Cox, Petrie (Smith, Derickx)
    Fyfe, Goodes, Franklin, Sylvia, Riewoldt, Smith, Howe (Darling, Johnson, Lynch)

    What do you think of my overall team as of round 22 and the strengths and weaknesses so that I can win my leagues, no trades

  • dont get suckling

  • http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/121323/default.aspx

    J Tippett is finally getting a game, after we have had him just for the DPP with Petrie all year.

    Any know if he has any decent DT scoring potential? He’ll be fighting for a ruck spot with Lobbe in a few teams with Z Smith out.

    • I just logged on to post the same link!!

      Cant believe that he is actually going to get a game!!

      Good times.

      Regards

      The Unemployed

  • 3 Trades left, not worried about scores this week so thinking of going:
    Gibbs—>Suckling (to get money)
    then
    Sylvia—>Rioli
    Thoughts?

  • Suckling or Fisher for Stanley this week?

  • Never mind all this.
    Where the hec is Calvin, and what have you doen with ihis Captains?????
    Can pirates be abducted?

  • thoughts:

    got 2 trades and 115,300 in bank

    Team:
    DEF: Gibbs, Deledio, Fisher, Suckling, Adcock, Lower, Duigan (Pedersen, hibberd, howard)
    Mid: Swan, Boyd, Mitchell, Hodge, Bartel, Mzungu (Prestia, callinan, irons)
    Ruck: Cox, Sandi (Smith, Bailey)
    FWD: Stevie J, Fyfe, Pav, Goods, Chappy, Sylvia, N.Riewoldt (Howe, Richardson, Gordon)

    I won last week so am straight into Prelim Finals.

    I was thinking next week trades:
    Mzungu – Ablett
    Gibbs – God

    Thoughts and other suggestions please?

    • Sounds good,

      I would be playing Pederson over Duigan though.

      Pedo has Freo this week.

      Duigan has the Hawks.

      Plus Pedo does go forward and kick a couple also.

      Regards

      The Unemployed

  • Looking to upgrade lower. Who to upgrade to? Already Got birchall Gibbs Goddard deledio adcock broughton heppell

    Which 2 do I upgrade? Z Smith Sylvia mzungu lower or heppell?

  • And who do I upgrade to???

  • Apparently J tippett is expected to debut this week

  • Lower out.

  • Bringing in either Bock or Delidio this week.
    Who would you suggest?

  • Ok I need your help!

    Forward Line:
    Goodes, Franklin, Fyfe, Pav, Sylvia, O’Keefe, Howe
    Emer: Gamble, Matera, Stevie J

    Want to trade Stevie J but not sure who to pick :

    Cloke?
    Rioli?
    Higgins?
    Other?

    Have plenty of trades so can get Stevie J back next week – IF i win!