Dream Team Stock Market – R21


Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers, shakers and losers in the Dream Team Stock Market, where we take a close look at the movement of a selection of players, attempt to do a little short-term forecasting on the sliders and check out a few bargain blue-chips. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to getting the most out of your money/team.

Here we are on the eve of Dream Team Qualifying and Elimination Finals! It’s been a tumultuous year, with byes and multi-byes adding to the usual headaches of under-performing guns, LTIs and peripheral distractions, eg ‘gamblor’ suspensions. And now with coaches like Mick Malthouse declaring that he might rest a few when the Pies play Geelong, get set for bigger headaches in the weeks ahead!

Well done if you’ve made the Eight, better still if you’ve made the Top Four. This is where your saved trades come in handy. Top Four coaches will want to win this week and skip through to the Preliminary Final (Week 3 of DT finals or R23 of the AFL home/away season). The advantage goes to coaches who have held 5-6 trades. A double trade this week may give you a distinct advantage on the weekend and also set your squad up with the strength to maintain momentum through the Prelims and Granny.

The Stock Market analysis has a slightly different look’n’feel for DT finals. Each week will bring a new challenge and The Weekly Wrangle looks at the ‘outs’ that affect the majority of coaches, as well as assessing the possible replacements. This week, it’s the rucking issue revolving around the popular second ruck Zac Smith, who may be rested and FWD/RUC swingman Drew Petrie being unable to cover him with the North Melbourne bye.

Of course, we’ll still cover the regular sections, though as mentioned before, the On The Up section will only feature the few bolters who will provide a good return during finals. Righto, on with the show!

Sell, Sell, Sell

Sam Iles $295,900 DOWN$4,800 (UP$185,500) BE109. Sammy Iles is bleeding cash and if you need to fund a big upgrade this week, it’s time to offload him before his projected fall of $11,400 next week. His forecast value won’t drop much further though, tapering off to $275k after R22.

  • Stock tip: Just $4,800 off his peak, sell this week for a massive $185,500 gain.

Cam Pedersen $250,100 DOWN$15,400 (UP$151,700) BE110. Pedersen managed just 21 last week at Aurora, which has dropped his value by $15,400 this week. With the Kangas bye this week, he is ready to sell, otherwise hang on and watch his price fall away to $225k after R23.

  • Stock tip: Gets you an excellent $151,700 of sold this week.

Simon Buckley $277,200 UP$800 (UP$179,600) BE86. Bucks’ chart has him peaking this week, with a projected fall of $4,400 next week. With DEF/MID DPP and a scoring range of 50-90, he may provide handy cover if ‘Pies guns are rested, so have a good think about this one.

  • Stock tip: Offload this week and smile all the way to the bank with a gain of $179,600.

On The Up

Jack Darling $234,800 UP$27,600 (UP$142,300) BE-2. Everyone’s favourite Darling has bounced back from a quiet mid-season with a 99 and 88 in his last two, which bodes well for his value. He’s one of the few rookie stocks to jump at the moment and is projected to increase $20.800 next week with a forecast peak of $260k after R22. Good news for the 24% of coaches who have hung on to him!

  • Stock tip: Trade out after R22 for a super $165k+ gain.

On The Slide

Dale Thomas $391,900 DOWN$19,500 (DOWN$3,700) BE170. That big BE of 170 this week should see Daisy’s projected value to fall $20,500 next week. It’s forecast to bottom out at $370k after R21, so he could be a good replacement for a Geelong gun.

  • Stock tip: Forecast to bottom out after R21 at around $370k.

Greg Broughton $381,000 DOWN$24,500 (UP$10,000) BE142. The Gregory has absolutely shredded recently, returning 102, 96, 114, 149 and 139 prior to his 57 last weekend. That’s pretty stupendous! However, if he does return to his lock-down role in defence, those 50s and 60s might creep back in. Definitely one to watch.

  • Stock tip: Bottoms out at around $360k after R22, but monitor his form/role.

Alan Didak $254,000 DOWN$18,700 (DOWN$157,100) BE124. A-Diddy has been talked up in the last couple of months as a potential super-sub. Well, you’ve got your chance to grab a past gun for an absolute steal after R21, when his value is forecast to bottom out at around $230k. Sure, that 51 last week was in junk time against Port, but if Micky Malt is building this previous superstar up for a big run in the AFL finals, we could be reaping the rewards in DT finals!

  • Stock tip: Grab him after R21 for $230k.

Blue Chip Bargains

Aside from the ‘blue chippers’ that we’ve been monitoring this season, a couple of solid stocks from years past make the list. Why? There will be more than a few coaches scrambling to find a decent budget-priced player for a single-trade swap this week to replace a ‘Roo, eg Petrie, Andrew Swallow and Rawlings. It may pay to look at a unique-ish player who has put runs on the board before. At least you know these guys are capable and if they’re playing into form, they are certainly worth a look.

Matt Suckling $328,600 DOWN$14,800 (UP$116,000) BE102. Suckers has been a revelation this year, boasting an average of 93 this season. He has bottomed out this week and is pretty decent value to finish off your backline. The Hawks do rely on that booming left boot and his high ceiling should seal the deal.

  • Stock tip: Get on this week or next week.

Sam Fisher $315,400 UP$4,000 (DOWN$38,400) BE51. For a player of Fisher’s DT ability, $315,400 is arguably better value than Suckers! He’s been given a run through the middle in recent weeks in addition to his normal rebounding role and this freedom certainly helps when he cops a forward tag.

  • Stock tip: Excellent value at $315k – buy now! Well, on Fri after final team lists…

Darren Jolly $295,000 UP$6,500 (DOWN$36,100) BE35. DJ’s been struggling all year with a niggly knee, but he looks to be over it with a pair of 99s in his last two. He did finish off very well last season with a last four of 88, 85, 118 and 91. With the ruck wrangle this week, Jolly’s a viable option to replace Zmith.

  • Stock tip: Buy this week before his projected increase of $10,900 next week.

Nathan Bock $314,300 UP$8,600 (DOWN$11,800) BE30. Bock’s last five have been impressive – 108, 110, 55, 90 and 80. His form has certainly picked up since mid-season and these are the sorts of numbers that we’re used to seeing from him. For those of you who want something outside of the usual Broughton/Suckling/Fisher fare, Bock may be just your unique.

  • Stock tip: Trade him in this week or watch his price jump $16,500 next week.

Shane Tuck $293,500 UP$9,900 (DOWN$106,600) BE24. Here’s one from left field! Yarp, Tucky hasn’t been in favour at Tigerland, but he has come up with 96 and 112 since being recalled. As a massively fallen premo, there is an element of risk in bringing him in, but he looks to have his touch and should run out the next few weeks solidly.

  • Stock tip: Bring him in this week or watch and consider him next week.

The Weekly Wrangle

This week’s wrangle revolves around the absence of one, and possibly two, of the more popular ruck options in Drew Petrie ($351,100; in 33% of teams) with the Kangas’ bye and Zac Smith ($261,600; in 29% of teams). Most coaches will have Cox paired with Zmith in the rucks with Petrie up forward to swing into the ruck for cover, or a combination of Cox/Zmith or Cox/Petrie in the ruck.

Being the first week of finals, we want our absolute best team available, so the likes of Lobbe, Bailey, Vickery, etc simply won’t do in the ruck. The options are: Straight swap Petrie for a premo ruck; or upgrade Zmith for a premo ruck with cash or a double-trade to free up cash. In either case, these guys should be on your shortlist as you don’t want to settle for less. Of course, Todd Goldstein feature for obvious reasons…

Ben McEvoy $359,100 UP$200 (UP$115,400) BE99. Big Ben has been a revelation in the Saints’ revival, proving to be one of the keys to their current run of six wins on the trot. He averages 94 and has produced a last five of 95, 90, 106, 61 and 106 plus a season-high of 139 against the Pies. His credentials are underlined by scores including a 112 against Goldstein and a 106 against Sam Jacobs, making him the form ruckman behind Cox and Goldy.

Sam Jacobs $354,000 DOWN$200 (UP$64,700) BE93. The move to Adelaide has worked out pretty well for SammyJ, where he has stepped up to the number 1 ruck spot. His DT scoring reflects this, with his last five being 118 (against Leuenberger), 69 (against Cox), 99 (against McEvoy), 101 and 120 (season-high against Sydney). As the Crows’ lone ruckman, he should be able to maintain a 90+ average over the next few weeks.

Shane Mumford $339,300 UP$9,900 (UP$7,300) BE53. The somewhat unfashionable Mummy is only in 4% of teams, but with all the DTT chatter this week, he looks to be high on the hit list of quite a few coaches out there. His last five are 93, 122, 81, 108 and 66, contributing to an average of 87. He has a season-high of 131 against the Blues. With a home run of Richmond (a), St Kilda (h), Geelong (a) and Brisbane (h), he’s definitely worth some thought.

Matthew Leuenberger $338,500 UP$2,700 (UP$17,200) BE77. Berger has pumped out am impressive set of consistent scores in his last five: 100 (against Jacobs), 90 (against Goldstein), 90, 91 and 11. He has a tricky run though, up against GC (h), Collingwood (a), WC (h) and Sydney (a). However, that consistency is gold and if he sustains it, he’s a set-and-forget option.

In Review

Now that the finals are upon us, it really is time for us to break out those trades to progress past this weekend. It can’t be stressed enough that you Top Four coaches have to approach the next game with a ‘must win’ mindset. Have a look at where you may lose out to your opponent. Trading to get McEvoy in for Zmith may get you an extra 50 points, which is well worth considering if it means you get next week off.

Ask questions around this blog; most posters will give you feedback worth chewing over. Have a good read of Calvin’s Captains and put some thought into your choice of skipper as this is another key in tight finals games. Most of all, make every trade count and good luck for the first week of finals!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT

 

 

 

 

Join Sportingbet

79 Comments

  • FIRST !!!!

  • Is Sandilands going to play this week?

  • Yay Callinan is avaliable!

  • Great write up as usual TT. Much appreciated.

  • Great stuff. With Cox, Smith, Bailey and Lobbe I’m thinking of trading Smith to Jolly which would only take 1 trade. With only 4 trades left I would need to make 2 trades to afford a McEvoy etc and I don’t think 2 trades is worth it. So does Smith to Jolly sound alright? Cheers

    • Mate, I am thinking of doing the same. With only 5 trades (and $30,000 cash) left and the prospect of some general soreness carnage for Preliminary and Grand Final weeks, I can’t justify a double trade to cover Zmith, and Jolly is really the only replacement within that price range. My only conern is that he may be rested, but given he’s missed a fair bit of footy this year, hopefully that won’t happen. Thoughts?

    • I’m now thinking of doing the same thing! I only have 3 trades and with a host of Hawks & Pies players – I suspect saved trades will be needed in the next few weeks.

      Surely Mick will want to give Jolly a good run in the lead up to the finals campaign – I reckon he’s vital to their chances of back to back flags!

      • Yep. I’m going to roll the dice and bring him in. He’s the only viable option at that price tag.

        Will be screwed if he is rested but I think it’s worth the risk.

        I reckon Preliminary and GF weeks are going to be carnage for everyone so I want at least 2 trades up my sleeve to deal with the “general soreness” curse

  • Good shit. I was expecting the DT stocks to slide like the ASX did. I was ready to do a minute by minute trade to get a bargain, but….. it didn’t happen.
    So i scrummaged through the rubbish to try and find some cheapies that are hitting form. enjoy kents:
    DEF: Adcock @ $283,800. 3 rnd avg = 91.
    DEF/MID: Gram @ $323,800. 3 round avg = 99
    MID: Van Berlo @ $322,200. 3 round avg = 106.3
    All players have completed byes, and are pretty unique.
    SH

  • I’m upgrading to Goodes this week. Who should i trade out from Mzungu or Sylvia (assuming Sylvia named tonight)

    • Forget that..

      Whats more preferable?

      J.Trengrove > McEvoy (Zmith sub)
      J.Howe > ROK (Mzungu & Darling subs)

      or

      Zmith > McEvoy (Trengrove sub)
      Darling > Goodes (Mzungu sub)

      no trades left once completed, first on ladder, analyser has me winning by 31 with current team.

      • how can you trade trengove to mcevoy?

      • I’ld prefer the GOODES over the ROCK any day

        • I definitely am leaning to that, the only predicament is not having a decent ruck backup for the remaining finals if one goes down. This will be my final two trades. I finished first but i have jelwood, chappy, stevie j and enright benched next week and definitely need the win this week, so i need to have the second premium ruck with zmith likely out this week

  • Anyone considering (if they are both named) playing Mzungu over Sylvia?

    Been some haters out there for the Gu, wanting to trade him and all, but we have to look at the stats:
    – His last 3 have been 83, 84 and 114.
    – His record at Subi last 4 have been 108, 61, 83, 114

    Sylvia on the other hand:
    – His last 4 have been 65, 114, 69, 72.

    Gu got his 114 chasing Dal Santo last weekend, and they have already penciled him into chasing Judd (ie in the guts). That combined with his good scoring at Subi he could hit +100 easily.

    Thoughts?

    • I’m going with the play the premium rule – despite Sylvia’s recent poor form. A break in the reserves might have him coming back with a big score. Gu is a great forward/mid emergency.

    • Absolutely. Many will be conflicted to play a “premium” like Sylvia over a rookie in Gu. May create some uniqueness. On the other hand, once teams released, you may be hoping Sylvia play just to cover gaps (assuming Gu and any other decent rookie may be called upon as well).

    • Yeah, why not? Most of us are playing a Heppel/Stanley as 7th defender, so Mzungu as a 7th forward would be a good option!

    • Its been my dilema all week. I’ve got LeCras slightly ahead of both too, but JPKennedy will be back this week.

      At the moment I have Gu as last fwd, Sylvia as mid emergency. It is a very tough call I reckon.

      Clearly with hindsight there will be a winner and loser option. Whats the probability of Mzugu scoring over 75 points? What’s the odds of Sylvia scoring over 75 points? What if Sylvia is given a tagging role as continued punishment or is the sub and he has to mess his pretty hair up? One thing I know if Mzugu is playing on Judd expect a fair few points from tackles for him.

      I don’t think there is a clearly bad choice atm.

  • Only got 2 trades left sitting 3rd on the ladder. Thinking B Jacobs to fisher then bewick to didak leaves me plenty of cover next week and the week after if I survive

    • With only two trades they should be only used when absolutely necessary, and only to bring in premiums. Didak would not be high on my list.

  • should i trade in heath shaw!!??

  • If Petrie, Cox and Smith out and you don’t have back up in Lobbe etc (or choose not to use them), does anyone else see an issue in trading Petrie for Mcevoy or another premium ruck. Means you lose your DPP flexibility. Is the question then are you better off trading Cox? Just throwing it out there.

    • ive never know the DPP you do with Petrie, who do you swap him for in the forward line?

    • Yep. I have Cox, Petrie, Smith, Mculloch.

      We have to be patient till tonight, Cox may well miss, or be hampered, so a double trade Cox down Smith up could work.

      I will wait till 5pm tonight before I move along the line of thought much further.

  • ive never known*
    so who do you swap him for

  • Need to upgrade Zac Smith as I finished 2nd in my league but everyone in the top 4 have 2 premium rucks. Thinking Mumford or Luenberger. Mumfy is probably a better option but Luenberger is unique.

    • Both are pretty unique going on ownership stats.

      Mumford in 4.24% or 12,843 teams.
      Leuenberger in 3.55% or 10,736 teams.

    • i’ve looked at these two. Berger seems to be pretty consistant but has cox & nic nat in the prelimianry final. Longmire was talking up Mumford’s return last week in the press but he has a knee concern (4 weeks out this year (+2 suspended) and final round of last year with poor finals DT scores)

  • four Trades left, made the top four.

    I have Cox, Zmith and Lobbe in the ruck with Petrie in the forwards.

    Worth trading Petrie sideways to someone to try and cement a prelim?

    I have 66.800 in the bank so can afford any forward or ruck.

    I already have Fyfe, Pavlich, Goodes, Sylvia ( booo ) and Chapman.

    • Depends how many Cats, Blues players you got. I have 4 trades left too and also have Petrie. I think you should do it.

  • OK. I never ask for advice but am flying this flag for some comment.
    Have the dilema of Cox, Smith and Petrie like many others. 4th ruck is Gorringe.
    In top 4. 4 trades left $371k in bank.
    Won’t make any move until tomorrow.
    All other positions strong but wanted to get Pav into my forwards this week probably for Robbie Gray.

    Thoughts?

    • Shit.. You’re in an odd position.. Almost too much cash for the amount of trades left.. Personally I’d go Smith>McEvoy and hope you can DPP Petrie into your forwards?

  • Dr Dreamteam just tweeted that Gazza *and* ZAC SMITH are both gonna play this week!

    No jokes.

    • A priest walks into a bar and says to the bartender ……. oh, sorry …… you said no jokes didn’t you?

      Go little Gaz. Was kind of hoping ZSmith had a rest though, 50/50 out of him and Lobbe to play and might force others to use a trade.

    • dr dt iz da bezt

  • what does everyone think mzungu will score this week as he is my replacement for boomer i have 3 trades left and finished in the top 4 worried about the new look down role judd is a different task then nikki dal would have to do a double trade to turn him into cloke

  • Smith and Gazza to play according to Dr Dream Team:) Anyone know what coxy got in test?

  • No cash, 4 trades, only people that bother me with finals byes are Juddy and Gibbs in week 3. Considering straight swapping them in week 3.
    Cox / Sandi / Zmith / Hale (Petrie)
    Shit forward line, thinking of downing Sandi or Cox to a no name for cash and upping to a premium forward.. then using other 2 trades. I should be ok to not get a donut in rucks correct?

  • Which option looks best for the final trade for my rucks (Cox, Zmith, Trengrove (Port), McCauley)

    Trengrove > Mumford (with zmith cover last 3 rounds)

    or

    Zmith > McEvoy (with trengrove cover last 3 rounds)

    Main concern is not having a trade left to fix injuries if one goes down

    • id say McEvoy, his been much more consistent than mumford and had a better draw from here

  • After finishing 3rd with 3 trades left, should i trade:
    1. petrie to McEvoy (or another premium ruckman)
    2. Double trade: downgrade rookie, upgrade smith to McEvoy allowing me to keep petrie
    3. or not trade at all?
    (i have 3 cats btw)

    • I would go with the single trade to Mcevoy, but it does depend on how many Geelong players you have and how close you think you will be to winning this week. If you think that you have no chance of winning then I would not use a trade at all, but if you think that 30 points will get you over the line then do it.

      Do not use 2 trades this week to get one player in, you will need those for the finals byes.

  • Herald Sun saying Crows won’t risk Callinan, Tippett or Douglas against the Cats!

  • Get Suckling or Gram ????

    Help!

    • Gram has had some good recent form but I would go Suckling, he has been average lately but he should score well from now on.

      Sucklings BE is 102 with an easy run Port, Doggies and GC for the final the only good team they have to play now is Carlton.

      Gram BE is 40 with some tough games, Collingwood, Carlton and Sydney.

  • sylvia, sandi and higgins all back in!

  • Zmith in!!!!!

  • Zmith in! Cox in! Pendlebury in! Gazza in! Howard in!

  • Yay!

    So pleased and relieved :D

  • Need advise on my last upgrade.

    Monty to Pendles or Sylvia to Stevie J/Chappy?

  • OK I got two trades left, and I need to go all out with my options.
    $89,000 in the bank

    OPTION 1:
    Trade Heath Shaw to Grant Birchall, then Chris Knights to Daniel Gia… (or Rooey?)

    OPTION 2:
    Trade Heath Shaw to Jed Adcock, then Chris Knights to Lance Franklin

    Please Help, need to beat my mate, cause he’s gonna give me heaps of crap if he beats me!!!

  • Hi, i’ve got 2 trades left and only have 2 options

    Shaw > Birchall or

    Shaw > Fisher

    Thanks for any advice