tbetta’s Bullets: Round 20

  • Round Robin

That’s it. All gone. For those who have League matches as their main focus (and even for those who don’t) Round 20 was the last match-up for the year. It was also the last chance to choose a smoky Captain. The last chance to experiment with your line-up. The last chance you get to watch a game of football to see who actually wins. The last chance you’ll have to see your partner over the weekend…. Because now, it’s serious.

Hopefully you all had a win this week, and were able to patch up that top 4 or top 8 spot, although common sense says that that probably only worked out for half of you. It’s the thought that counts anyway…. Par this week was about 2300, which would have had you in the top 9000 or so for the round. It’s not the same scoring that we’ve seen for the last few weeks, with a couple of key outs and some popular underperformers in the backline and rucks especially. But more on that later.

  • Colinoscopy

We were all a bit pissed off when we learned that Sylvia was dropped this week, and then subsequently named in the Emergencies. Many coaches, including myself, thought that meant he’d be a late inclusion and therefore placed him on the field with plenty of cover. Unfortunately (or fortunately?) some had Mzungu (114) as that cover, and spent a sleepless night praying that Sylvia picked up a bad case of the runs, or got a massive forehead pimple (like Ablett did last year) and was too embarrassed to play.

Ultimately, Melbourne reported no late changes, meaning Colon was off to play in the Magoos.  While this was good news in the short run for many, it’s bad news for all in the long run, as he only managed 7 disposals and a goal for Casey.

Surely we won’t see him in a Melbourne Guernsey this week?

UPDATE: Apparently my info was wrong (there will be an internal inquiry done) and here’s the real story. Apparently he played a shut-down role perfectly in the first half, then got loose in the 2nd to kick a goal aswell.  Contradictory to earlier reports, he had more than 7 disposals, collecting at least 16.

Surely we will see him in a Melbourne guernsey this week?

  • Rising Star 

The race is heating up, with Dyson Heppell and Luke Shuey both in great form at the business end of the year. Some bookies have Heppell as certain as $1.50 with Shuey at $3.20, but this is probably to cover their projected losses from bets already placed over the year. BetAustralias’ odds of $2.65 and $2.75 respectively is probably more indicative of the tightness of the medal race this year.

There’s been a lot of talk about the criteria, and whether the fact that Heppell is a first-year player and Shuey is a 3rd year player should be taken into account. Apparently it isn’t – all eligible candidates (basically you must have played 10 games or less prior to Round 1, whilst being less than 21 years of age) are treated equally. Let’s take a look at the head-to-head stats:

HEPPELL

vs

SHUEY

19

Games

18

21.4

Disposals

20.1

6.0

Marks

2.9

2.7

Tackles

3.6

2.6

Inside 50s

4.5

0.1

Goals

1.1

0.5

Goal Assists

0.8

83.3

Dream Team

81.7

83.2

Supercoach

91.4

3-6 votes

Projected Brownlow

5-8 votes

A lot of these discrepancies can be attributed to playing in different positions – Heppell plays Half-back/Midfield, so it makes sense he leads in disposals and marks. Shuey on the other hand plays Half-forward/Midfield, so he leads in I50s, Goals and Goal Assists. It gets interesting towards the bottom of the table. Heppell leads marginally in Dream Team, while Shuey takes the cake easily in Supercoach. Shuey also leads slightly in projected Brownlow votes (according to PhantomBrownlowMedal.com.au).

SC usually rewards better users of the football and more effective players – which is probably the best objective criteria we have for the Rising Star. Although recent history says this isn’t always the case – Hanneberry won last year’s award with an average of 80.0, beaten only by Tom Rockliff who averaged 86.0. Rockliff ended up finishing 3rd.

But here at DT Talk we are only interested in all things Dream Team. The AFL DT NAB Rising Star award easily goes to Heppell, who started the year at $132,500 and has increased by 188k, becoming a permanent starter for most backlines. Shuey on the other hand is ineligible for this prestigious award, having started the year at $280,300, although he’s pushed that to $313,000 as of Round 20.

  • Hey Mickey

When Mick Malthouse talks, people listen. Compared to when Jeff Kennett talks, and people throw rubbish at him. At least I imagine they do.

This week the big issue on Mick’s mind is the widening gap between the top teams and the cellar-dwellers. It’s been on show in the last few weeks, with record beatings at the hands of the competition elite in the Cats and Pies. He argues it’s a blight on the game, which is probably true, but what does it mean for Dream Team?

It means points galore – as long as you have players in the winning team. Of the 100+ point thrashings since Round 14, the average winning team score is a huge 1938, while the losers average 1284. That’s an extra 28 points per player!

In terms of the magical ton, the discrepancies are huge. The losing team on average only boasts 1.33 players in a 100 points belting, while the victors have a cool 7.5 players per game over that mark! And of those games, the lowest amount of tons was 5 players.

But what we are concerned with are our guns – how do they perform in they demolitions? The average top 3 score over these games is a huge 139.0 DT points – so if you see a thrashing in the future, expect some monster scores!

  • Makers

Swan was the most-picked Captain this week, and for good reason. His recent form has been scintillating, and his history against Port is legendary. Both continued at the weekend, with the Collingwood gun collecting 47 touches and booting 3 goals on his way to a round-high 155 DT points. He yearns for the big stage – Friday night against the Saints is a perfect opportunity for him to re-stamp his authority on the competition.

It’s unfortunate Heath Scotland has a bye during DT finals, because otherwise he would be a lock in defence this season. His lowest score all year has been 74, at an average of 101.3. That’s improved to 121.3 over his last three rounds – like I said, he would normally be a no-brainer. This week he had 148, a season-best for him.

It’s time to get on the Goodes Train! We all know he steps it up towards the end of the year, and here it is in motion. Round 20’s huge 139 included 29 touches and 3 goals, and most importantly, follows 150 from the previous week. He’s now priced at $393,300 with a BE of only 22, so it’s now or never!

The interview with Tom Rockliff a couple of weeks ago proved he is a good bloke, but his scoring over the last month has proven he is a scoring machine! He’s a very unique addition to the teams that have him, giving them a healthy edge given his recent form. This week’s 138 brings his average over his last five to 119.4, and he’s topped the ton in his last seven! Great pick-up.

With Ablett, Boyd and Sylvia noticeable absentees from the majority of fantasy teams this week, it forced many coaches to turn to DPP Docker Tendai Mzungu. The floppy-haired wingman didn’t disappoint, living up to his pre-season reputation by scoring 114, his best effort to date. Others turned to Smith (95), D. Swallow (70) or Howe (67), but the crazy Zimbabwean was the only one who truly satisfied.

1.  Zac Smith   40

2.  Broughton   57

3.  Birchall   63

4.  A. Swallow   52

5.  Knights   23

Now before anyone gets too excited, I realise Goddard (69) and Cox (57) both had shockers. But the whole point of a ‘Breaker’ is someone who ruins your week compared to everyone else – these guys are in everyone’s teams, so there’s really no point in discussing them.

Given his impressive rookie season, it feels a bit wrong giving Zmith the dishonour of being the Number 1 Breaker for Round 20. But when a big chunk of coaches have already upgraded their 2nd ruck, 40 points hurts a hell of a lot more for those who haven’t. He was ‘only’ playing Geelong, who were without first-choice ruckman Ottens. The same thing happened earlier in the year, and the youngster scored 88 that week.

Broughton is back to his old ways – question is, for how long? A niggling injury picked up in the final quarter of Fremantle’s clash with Hawthorn meant that the proven accumulator was sent back to the back pocket. A position where he is notorious for poor fantasy scoring, particularly evident earlier in the year. So it was no surprise 57 was all he managed against the Saints on Friday Night. Hopefully this is a one-week thing, I don’t know if his owners have the strength of mind to take another setback with the defender.

Shame on you Birchall for convincing us you were a premium this year. The Hawks’ backman had a great mid-season patch, bumping his average up to 93 after Round 14. Since then, he hasn’t managed a ton, averaging only 75.2 in that time. Against the Roos this week he only scored 67, which means that like Coles, his price is down, down, and staying down. And it’s down for a reason.

There’s no denying that Andrew Swallow is a good player, but it’s games like these that prevent him from being a great player. Spitter was well tagged by Jordan Lewis, only managing 13 touches and 52 DT points against the Hawks. The fact he was coming off three tons makes it even worse – you need consistency in this business.

It’s a tough call, but the injured Chris Knights rounds out the Breakers for Round 20. A week after tricking everyone he was back (and he probably was) with 114, he injures himself, stranded on 23 as he slipped on the red vest. With the help of temp coach Mark Bickley he could have been a great cheap unique forward, but it wasn’t to be.

  • Week One Shorts

Okay, down to business. First week of finals, and what’s on the horizon for us?

    • Obviously North Melbourne has the bye, which means no Harvey, Swallow or Petrie (or Richardson or Harper!). This is where those who didn’t bite on Petrie have a slight advantage this week.
    • Early tribunal news is that Franklin has been reported, and Petrie and Harvey may be in some trouble for Round 22. Franklin can be covered this week if he misses, and let’s be honest, with his shocking record, he isn’t much chance to get off. But if Harvey and Petrie miss it might be wise to trade them – they would miss at least half of the remaining games in that scenario. Adam McPhee will also certainly miss, but really, who cares? Goodes’ bump on Monfries will also be scrutinised, but a combination of there being nothing in it, Monfries’ diving tendencies and Goodes’ protected status will mean it will be thrown out.
    • Monday rumour-mill has it that Knights is still likely to play this week, and Callinan has declared himself fit for this week also. It was also tweeted Sylvia is in the mix despite his terrible game in the VFL at the weekend, and Cox has brushed off any injury whisperings. Ablett is another who is apparently cherry ripe for this week after missing with hamstring soreness, but wait for Thursday teams before you get too excited.
    • Let’s not forget the dreaded issue of Resting. I think it will be huge this year, with the unprecedented subs rule increasing fatigue for players in the modern game. Hawks this week against Port is one to watch, as is the Round 24 clash between the Pies and Cats for Collingwood players. Geelong stars not so much, as they have been rested throughout the year and get the bye in Round 23. Still, be on your toes… Keep those trades!

Whether you are in the top 4 or 5th to 8th, winning this week is essential for your finals chances. Top 4 contenders earn a week off (and skip Geelong’s bye!), while the rest need a win to survive.

Weighing up a trade will be particularly hard this week, because it’s hard to know how long you’ll be in the race. You don’t want to use your trades too early, but no one wants to be bailed out of the finals hunt with 2 or 3 trades up their sleeve!

My tip of the week: Upgrade your rucks if you haven’t already. That’s a guaranteed 50 point bonus right there.

Until next week.

 

Also, quick fun fact: Chris Judd has already been paid out for the Brownlow by one bookmaker, who has him at 30+ votes! C. Judd, 3 votes.

 

Tweet me: @tbetta9

50 Comments

  • Mate, ripper article. Goddard was a massive breaker for me, took a punt and had him captain…. didn’t pay off. Still made the 8. SH

  • tbetta – you are a star!! awesome read! (now back to proof reading my school reports for errors).

    • A shudder just went up my spine!

    • Proof reading school reports is like chainging the kitty litter. Its a job that has to be done but is often loader with lines of foul smelling sticky cable and the last few paragraphs are a blur of eye watering amonia.

    • Can you turn this into a report form that you would give to a parent?

      “Young Johnny was a horror to teach. Not only did he spend most of classtime on his desk or pretending to be a gorilla but he also struggles to learn. I think it is highly likely that he has a disability. He was unable to master the two times tables before the end of the year. All I can say good about him is that I no longer need to teach him.”

  • no mention of goldstein with the north boys? undoes the no-petrie advantage for a lot

    • Great call, forgot about him! It could work both ways though – if you have both, you’d be in a bit of trouble this week.

  • Can I please just give a massive shout out to Robin Nahas for taking a Mark in the last 2 seconds in the last match of the round to give me a win by 1 point. Sure he has had an up an down year and the little bastard only got 42 on the weekend but I’m keeping him cos the guy is hung like a Donkey and gave me an unthinkable win. Cheers mate (get back to those 100+ scores this week please my heart can’t handle the close games)

  • ahhaha here we go again
    finished top in two leagues that i care about.

    7 trades and 21000 in ban with (sandi still sitting on pine so another 300 000 available there)

    gibbs goddard heppel broughton suckling martin stanley (lower poo talia)

    swan pendel thompson boyd bartel ablett (prestia mzugnu jacobs)

    cox petrie (sandi j tippet)

    fyfe goodes cloke franklin nroo okeefe sylvia (lynch lobbe richardson)

    Will cover petrie with lobbe this week hopefully cox will play – if not will trade him out for mcevoy most likely

    Week 1 martin to fsher and stanley to delids (cox to mcevoy stanley to delids if cox pulls up sore) 2TRADES

    Week 2 Trade sandi out to free up cash and if not playing no other trades will be done otherwise will upgrade bartel to mitchell or NDS. 3-4 TRADES

    Week 3 cover for gibbs will be with lower and will trade sylvia for chapp or steve j 4-5 TRADES

    Week 4 hepell for scotland 5-6 TRADES

    If all goes to plan i will have one trade left at end of ear hich is handy cos i think somone like swan pendel etc will be rested leading into finals if so they will be sideways traded

  • I didn’t know about Petrie, if he misses he’s gone from my team.

    McEvoy most logical choice, but has Collingwood and Sydney to come.

    Mummy maybe.

    Good call on Goodes being a protected species, it’s one of the best parts of being a swans supporter! Makes up for the years of barry hall bad calls and the dodgy mumford tackle suspensions.

    Great article again, good luck in the finals tbetta.

    • “years of barry hall bad calls”

      not an eagles or sydney supporter but wasnt he meant to miss the GF or one of the crunch games during finals for strking but got let off. Cant remember what year or final but you get my point. (maybe 2005 when they won?)

      Not like barry hall is a good player as the only good thing he has done in his career was knock out staker. He wont be remembered as a 100+ goal kicker for 3 clubs but the guy who KO’ed staker. I guess you could say the “stakes” were high in that match.

      • He will be remembered as a player who captained the Swans to their drought breaking premiership….

        • nope, definately will be noted for his hit on staker. Just went to youtube and used a simple search “barry hall” and to no surprise first video shown on my page was the staker hit. Didn’t have anything about him leading the swans to a premiereship or no highlights for his grand final in 05 with the “barry hall” search term (this clearly outlines my point). Also pretty sure he should have missed 05 grand final for the hit on maguire, of course biased sydney fans would disagree though.

          • I was less than 50m away when hIt cheered my luungs out wie did that punch at the ground, accidental contact at best! ;) I cheered my lungs out with the rest of the section at first till we saw the replay with a section wide ooooooh noise followed by a few intermingled chuckles by league supporters amazed an afl player knew how to through one.

            You are definately right chappo though above, it was a total rort what the swans would have threatened was that they would appeal to the court of arbitration for sport in gf week and make sure it would drag out longer than the gf week so he could play in it, or appeal the decision so he could play in it.

            That spite by swans came on the back of really bad on field calls against barry for years, especially free kicks not awarded for him.

            True, off field calls against him were fine.

        • Hall should never have played that grand final – should have missed for that punch off the ball to Goose Maguire in the Prelim. He should have been remembered as the THUG captain who missed the drought breaking premiership because he is a THUG who hits blokes behind the play…. in play my ass….

  • Awesome write up mate, crook with the Manflu have been waiting all morning for it, cheers!

  • Cracking read!

    Warnie make room in the salary cap and sign him up to a long-term deal! :D

  • great read,

    should I play adcock (GC) or heppel (bulldogs) this week?

    • Look at Adcocks scores for the rounds that Browny has missed and that will make your decision for you….

      • Spot on Ike. When Brown out adcock gets up. When Brown in Adcock goes soft. Its all a bit anal if you ask me!

  • Franklin has been cleared by the MRP, not sufficient force apparently. Not surprising, I believe ‘insufficient force’ on Scott Thompson is any contact that results in him still standing afterwards!

    Dream Team finals this week. Not looking great for the Goaled Fingers, have been outscored in the last 2 weeks by Geelong! My only hope is if my opponent has a swag of Roos players, or is a Port Adelaide fan – it’s always easier to beat up the handicapped!

  • Sort it out, Sylvia didn’t have a “terrible” game, according to The Hun: “Colin Sylvia proved his class was too much for the VFL. Sylvia played a sacrificial role in the first half, negating Zebra aces Marcus Marigliani and James Magner at the stoppages. He then unleashed in the second half, finishing with seven tackles and capped a workmanlike game with a goal from 50m with his 16th disposal.”

    • Mate, I obviously wasn’t at the game. At the time of writing, multiple sources indicated he had 7 touches and a goal. Doesn’t indictae a good game if you ask me.
      If you know where to find instant stats for VFL matches, you are more than welcome to indulge me.

      • I was at the game and the most impressive thing about the game was big FEV! Kicked 5, gave off a few and could have kicked 10 if they’d really looked for him on the lead. Look Sylvia was ok but it wasn’t obvious that he was a class above – thats just a HSUN reporter trying to get some interest in his story. He probably did enough, but I wasn’t exactly wowed with his performance.

        • The fact he was playing a negating role in the 2s is interesting. This suggests he has been sent down as a lesson to become more accountable for his man.

          If this was the case, the fact he did it, plus lots of tackles, may be exactly what is required to get him back in seniors.

  • Great write up as usual.

    Shuey for Rising Star. Having a great season. (bias since I’m a West Coast fan) haha.

  • TBETTA GOLD….. again!! sweet read. Breaker was cox as captain!! ah well finals now!

  • What do people think of Hale vs Port at the MCG. I already have him in my forward line bench and can switch with Petrie. Might be a good unique for this week. Thoughts?

    • To play? Yeah, go for it, I have no idea what to do this week, might get rid of Petrie for McEvoy – don’t really trust Lobbe or Zmith as cover…

  • Shout out to Mini Dane (Jack Steven)… he should be right up there with Heppell, Swallow and Shuey for the rising star he is a gun and had an awesome last 10 weeks.

    Not sure why but I kept Swallow and got rid of Shiels for Pendles. Was a brutal move, was thinking Shiels would struggle having a smaller body and having shouldered a fair bit of work all year – safe to say I probably should be in the breakers this week….

    Happy choosing Goodes over OKeefe to replace Missy though – only regret was not going Goodes when I got Missy in anyway but you get that!

    Also, Scotland and Gibbs are way worth it, especially with the lack of decent backline scorers this year. Only missing a week is no more risky than picking up a star who is likely to be rested come the end of the year. With Stanley, Lower, Jacobs and Heppell to pick from on the bench – I’m happy to keep those two all year – only regret was not getting Scotland earlier (got him after his first bye).

    • Interesting comment about getting players with a bye in finals so you know they aren’t going to get rested in the finals. It is something that I considered before bringing in Chappy a few weeks ago.

  • Callinan, Knights and Tippett will hopefully be available for selection this week:
    http://www.afc.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/4417/newsid/120457/default.aspx

  • I had 4/5 Makers and 0/5 breakers. If anyone wanted to know.

  • did anyone watch the hawks game? what happened to Birchall?
    His quarter by quarter was 31-24-8-0.
    I assumed he got subbed / injured but appears not??
    cheers

  • Osborne was subbed off, The windy and drizzly conditions werent ideal for Birchall as he didnt get as many marks as usual and had no tackles….

  • Great article Tbetta. Just a thought but could you possibly start doing a Tbetta’s Breakers before each round to Match Calvins Captains. That way we can have some insight into who has a bad past record or might be injured, rested or hung over (ie Chris Kinghts) before each game. Cheers…

    • Not a bad idea, something I’ll look at for next year when the interest is there! Assuming I’m invited back of course.

      Although, I don’t envy Calvin’s job – there’s a lot of pressure and he cops a fair bit of undeserved criticism I think- getting it right every week is impossible.

      Cheers for the feedback mate!

      • Its amazing how people can’t take responsibility for their own actions. Just because Calvin says this doesn’t mean its going to be right every week. Too many people wan’t to blame someone else for their own inadequacy (had to look that word up). Hope to hear from you lots more next year. Good luck in the finals.

      • You prefer to use 20/20 hindsight?

  • I found the AFL tribunal reports for Petrie and Franklin (good news). Does anyone have a link to know how Boomer went because I want him gone to hurt some of my opponents.

  • would love some opinions guys.

    atm i have cox and smith and are looking to upgrade smith to help me in the finals.I can get anybody, but i don’t know who…. I’m tossing up between mcevoy, goldstein and mumford.

    mcevoy – has good history against the last 4 teams he’s coming up against. however how far away is gardener away from returning cos if he comes back into the side mcevoys scoring will drop significantly…? anyone have any news on this

    mumford – probably has the least scoring potential of the three and this worries me.

    goldstein – probably the best ruck man of the three but has the bye. will macintosh return before the season is over? i heard someone say he got 44 hit outs in the vfl last weekend.

    also where is sand at these days?

    • Sandi is probably a week away, and may take time finding form (by which time the DT season will be over). Out of those, McEvoy is probably the best bet, though Mumford is a good budget option. However, you should take a good look at Sam Jacobs. Improving every week, and might start having a semi-decent midfield to tap the ball to.

  • McKenna reckons Zac Smith will be rested this week 100%. Couldn’t have come at a worst time with Petries bye and Cox no certainty to play this week