Dream Team Stock Market – R19

Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers, shakers and losers in the Dream Team Stock Market, where we take a close look at the movement of a selection of players, attempt to do a little short-term forecasting on the sliders and check out a few bargain blue-chips. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to getting the most out of your money/team.

That was yet another great round for massive Dream Team scores and I’m sure that there are plenty of coaches who are still smiling after a 2400+ weekend. The western derby was a standout game, with plenty of fight and desperation shown by both sides. All the other games went according to general predictions, with an honourable mention to the Suns, who kept their losing margin fairly respectable against the Pies.

A bit of a look at the DT numbers around the grounds showed Adelaide giving up the most tons, with nine Saints racking up triple figures, and the Swans at their restrictive best, allowing only two Doggies to top the century. These are the sorts of stats that we should be taking into consideration if we’re making trades to gear up for the finals. Putting this sort of forethought in may tilt a tight game or two in your favour.

It was generally a bullish market, with most stocks either growing in value or holding steady. While the usual suspects make the Sliders and Bargains lists, I’ve thrown in a few alternative options who are worth considering. When it comes to these uniques, the big question is: do I play safe and bring in the same premium to match my opponents, or do I bring in a unique premium as a point-of-difference?

As a heads-up to everyone, be prepared to see the On The Up list being pared back as we focus on the finals. Stocks that are still rising will become increasingly irrelevant, as coaches will look for the cheapest player available to trade down to in order to maximise their return. The vast majority of us are reserving our trades for LTIs and sideways swaps, so the Sell list will become key as we look to use a single ‘luxury’ trade to grab a fallen premo for a fat cow.

Keep in mind when perusing this article that the overriding objective here is to provide an analysis by the numbers. It doesn’t mean that those on the ‘sell’ list must be traded out, or that all those on the ‘bargains’ list are absolute must-haves. The same principle that applies to Calvin’s Captains applies here – we do the research and analysis and put the options out there, but ultimately it’s up to you to make the final decision. Dream Team is a numbers game of peaks and troughs and the golden rule of stock trading applies: sell high and buy low!

Sell, Sell, Sell

Josh Toy $162,600 DOWN$5,300 (UP$65,000) BE42. For 10% of coaches, Toy’s been a passenger for most of the season, taking a valuable spot on the DEF bench. After fading into the DT wilderness, he’s now had a couple of games for 39 and 46, which are pretty unremarkable scores. He’ll need to put up a big number or two to get his value moving up, but with a BE of 42 and an average of 50, he’s only projected to increase by $2,600 next week. His value is forecast to top out at around $180k by R24.

  • Stock tip: Sell now to bank a modest gain of $65,000, or monitor weekly and hope for a big score to get his price moving up.

Dan Nicholson $186,300 DOWN$2,000 (UP$81,900) BE44. Nicholson’s value has been on a steady rise, proving to be a fair short-term earner. His projected increase is $4,100 next week and his long-term trending shows him picking him up to just over $200k after R21. Though his DEF/MID DPP is handy, his job security is questionable, which makes him prime for offloading.

  • Stock tip: Sell this week or next week to cash in a decent gain of $81,900.

Luke Breust $236,100 UP$6,300 (UP$143,600) BE50. The Hawks have developed an excellent core of young guns and Luke Breust is another who somehow snuck under the radar of all but 3% of astute coaches. The rugby league convert has played every game since R8 and his value has peaked this week. It’s forecast to taper off slightly to $230k by R24 after a projected increase of $4,000 next week. As FWD cover, his scoring range is 50-70 and he looks solid in the Hawks starting 22.

  • Stock tip: Pocket a booming $143,600 if you sell this week.

Max Bailey $247,300 UP$6,800 (UP$149,700) BE56. Bailey’s healthy run this year has been great for his coaches and makes for a ‘good news’ story too. The comeback kid’s price chart is pleasing to the eye – consistent growth to his current peak value of $247,300. His forecast shows his price settling back to $230k by R24. He’ll provide an excellent investment return if you don’t need him for ruck cover.

  • Stock tip: Gain a hearty $149,000 if you sell him this week.

Paul Puopolo $252,600 UP$1,200 (UP$160,100) BE79. In the same vein as Bailey, the Poo’s chart maps a steady increase and is now a stock that’s ready to be moved on if you feel the need for some coin. His price should hover at around the $250k mark for the rest of the season. He does make a very strong case for bench cover, which will probably weigh into consideration for his coaches.

  • Stock tip: Cash him in for a whopping $161,000 this week.

Andy Otten $256,900 UP$2,300 (UP$114,500) BE59. Regular scores in the 60s and 70s has Otten’s value peaking. However, if you’ve hung on to him for this long, he’s obviously providing you with good DEF cover and a rejuvenated squad under caretaker coach Bickley should see him playing out the rest of the year.

  • Stock tip: Sell now if you must and gain $114,500.

On The Up

Andrew Krakouer $273,400 UP$15,200 (UP$133,900) BE41. Krak has really come on, with a last three of 79, 83 and 90. Those are great numbers for the massive 44% of DT coaches who have him and he looks like a must-keep as FWD/MID cover. With a value bump projected at $10,800 next week, he is still mooing for those coaches who are planning to cash him out.

  • Stock tip: Looks to be peaking after R20 at around $280k if you really need the moolah.

Alex Fasolo $135,600 UP$14,000 (UP$43,100) BE15. Another Pie to benefit from an inflated score against the Suns, Fasolo’s 70 has is BE down to 15 and a projected increase of $10,800 next week. His forecast value will top $160k after R20, with a slight rise to $170k by R24. With Mick Malthouse vowing to blood the youngsters in readiness for finals, he should get a couple more games to realise his value potential.

  • Stock tip: Sell after R20 for at least $160k.

Cam Pedersen $254,700 UP$15,100 (UP$156,300) BE29. Pedersen’s value looked like it peaked after R16, but scores of 89 and 81 since then have pumped his value projection yet again, with an increase of $14,700 next week and a peak of $270k after R20. If he strings consistent 80-something scores together, he could turn out to be a smokey keeper!

  • Stock tip: Sell after R20 for a hot $170k+ gain.

On The Slide

Michael Barlow $407,400 DOWN$48,800 (DOWN$48,800) BE196. Barlow etched his name in DT folklore last season and looks to be getting his touch back after making his long-awaited comeback in R13. He’s on this list as an opportunistic sliding stock, with that green-vested 25 absolutely slugging his value. His projected drop is $30,800 next week to bottom out at under $380k. For coaches looking to pick up a gun for the DT finals, Barlow could be that sneaky unique. We know he’ll play hard to get Freo into finals mode, which should earn coaches some nice scores from this point-of-difference.

  • Stock tip: Watch his form this week and pick him up next week or the week after for around $380k.

Matt Priddis $402,700 DOWN$7,400 (UP$14,300) BE126. Sure, Priddis had a quiet game by his standards in the western derby, but a last five of 82, 107, 118, 111 and 128 should have you pencilling him into your ‘maybe’ list, particularly with the Eagles’ good run in DT finals. The on-baller’s value is projected to drop $12,300 this week and forecast to bottom out at $375k after R20, which makes him another unique that you could slot into your mids.

  • Stock tip: Monitor closely and buy after R20 for about $375k.

Dale Thomas $411,400 DOWN$14,700 (UP$15,800) BE137. After being subbed of for 50 with a corkie last weekend, Daisy’s value dropped $14,700 this week and is set to drop $12,300 next week to bottom out at $375k after R20. Before the Suns game, he piled on 135, 113 and 124, making him an excellent candidate for your midfield. He’s already sat out for 3 weeks this season and looks to be fresh for finals, so hopefully he won’t get rested in the remaining AFL regular season.

  • Stock tip: Keep an eye on his injury/form and buy in R19-20.

Blue Chip Bargains

Sam Fisher $308,300 DOWN$22,700 (DOWN$45,500) BE76. Everybody on the Fishermobile! No doubt he will be one of this week’s most popular DEF trades into squads this week at his bargain basement $308,300. This is seriously good value for a quality defender, ‘nuf said…

  • Stock tip: Jump on this week or next week.

Lance Franklin $371,800 DOWN$3,200 (DOWN$41,000) BE55. This is the cheapest big Buddy will be this year and we don’t have to throw any stats around to convince you of his scoring potential. Sure, he does go the bump every now and then and those mighty calves flare up on occasion, but he is one of the elite power forwards of the competition. His value is projected to shoot up by $11,100 next week, so don’t miss your chance.

  • Stock tip: Buy now!

Beau Waters $336,600 DOWN$9,300 (DOWN$26,900) BE81. With a projected increase of just $1,500 next week, Beau would be a great buy for those looking for a unique premo. We’ve seen his numbers last season and he looks to be backing them up after coming back from his latest elbow issue, with a pair of 98 and 85. With the Eagles’ great run in DT finals, Waters should rack up some pretty handy scores.

  • Stock tip: Buy this week or next for $336k-ish.

Grant Birchall $347,500 DOWN$21,600 (UP$26,200) BE111. Birchall’s recent run of 77, 84 and 71 has seen his value drop to $347,000. Prior to that, his last 5 were 124, 101, 91, 91 and 129. His price is projected to drop $4,400 next week, making him a good buy (or a Heath Shaw replacement) for your finals campaign. Suckling’s return this week will balance out Hawthorn’s backline and link-up play, so Birchall’s scoring should return to his 90+ average.

  • Stock tip: Pick up this week or next week.

In Review

Most of us will be holding our trades and fielding bench cover for our Lions, Tigers and Swans players. The loss of Nick Riewoldt this week will hurt a few, but coaches who don’t have him will be hoping to move up the leaderboard. I can see a fair few grabbing Sam Fisher for a fattened cow and a pocketful of change – good deal! Your trades are gold, so make each one count and good luck for this final MBR weekend!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT

38 Comments

  • First – and another fantastic article

    I’m Going:

    Poo- Adcock
    Ryder – Jacobs

    Thoughts?

    • If he gets time in the middle again, Adcock is undervalued and not a bad option at his current price. Jacobs is in good touch in a one-ruckman team and should be more consistent than Paddy, though this is arguably a slightly sideways trade.

      • Thx for your feedback – see I feel it is more with ryder an upgrade with his average 75 and jacobs 87 and heading north it is a 20/30 point gain?

        Who else would you suggest to support cox that you see as more an upgrade?

        • Jacobs is a good unique choice, in form and consistent. McEvoy, Leuenberger or Mumford are also worth some thought. Going on average and price, all four are upgrades. :-)

  • Should I trade Hibberd> What rookie? i need to free up some cash for finals upgrades….

    Thought’s…(I know Ivé said this in other articles but no one replyed)

    • Also should I trade next week Heppel>Birchall? Then have 2 trades left to trade Chapman>best foward

      and Bartel>Mitchell?

      Thoughts???

    • Hibberd to Talia, if you need a downgrade who’s playing, or to any $80k rookie if you need the money. However, with 4 trades left, I’d be inclined to hold off until after R20 if you’re already in the top eight of your league(s).

      • yeh I don’t want birchall to rise to much cos I won’t have enough cash for bartel>Mithcell…

  • Hey lovers.
    4 trades, no spare cash, too many mid-price/fattened cows in my fwd and back.
    Ruck: Cox, Sandi, Zmith, Hale/Petrie.
    Should I down Sandi or Zmith for cash to use my other 3 trades upping midpricers..? I am still tempted to hold onto Sandi cos he could come good as I’m sure to go deep in finals (yes, both my team and my league are crap)

    • Sandi is too much cash wasted on the hope that he may return. Downgrade and save the cash and rest of your trades until absolutely necessary.

  • Good one TeeTee.

    Replacement for Higgins? Petrie is tempting but has a bye. Riewoldt but his form is up and down. I’m thinking Le Cras?

    • Do we know how long Higgins will be out for ?? Any updates on his injury ??

      • Out this week. Next week is a bye. So a minimum of two weeks. I also read elsewhere that he might be gone for the season.

    • I’m thinking Lecras too. Projected avg of 105 for the rest of the year and easily the highest avg out of the fwd options. The only problem with lecras is he occasionly gets stuck in the fwd pocket. He seems to be running through the midfield a lot more these days though

    • If I had Higgins and decided to trade him out, I’d put LeCras at the top of my shortlist as a straight swap. He’s been getting plenty of touches through the middle – good smokey choice.

      The only other consistent forwards to consider are Fyfe, Pav, ROK, Goodes, Franklin, Cloke and maybe Chappy (DT finals bye).

      • Yep and WC have a great run in of games…can only see his scores getting better with a bit more time in the mids as well

  • Im in the states and having trouble finding out info about the players in my team.. can somebody help me out and explain the higgins situation? is he a chance to play again?

    • The Higgins situation is the same as every other Higgins situation ever: he’s injury prone and has a cloud over him due to injury this week; in fact, if you google ‘Shaun Higgins’, the first suggested addition to his name is ‘injury’.

      Ok rant over; he is going to miss this week with knee soreness and swelling and is a possibility rather than a probability for round 21 (the dogs have the bye in round 20). Hope that helps

      http://www.smh.com.au/afl/afl-news/shortstaffed-20110727-1i0i6.html

  • WHAT IS THE SMARTER OPTION HERE??

    TRADE A PLAYER WHO IS AVERAGES 75 (but last 5 avg 63 and dropping…)
    TO A PLAYER WHO AVERAGES 85 (last 5 avg 75)

    OR

    TRADE A PLAYER WHO AVERAGES 99 (consistantly)
    TO A PLAYER WHO AVERAGES 115 (and im thinking going up)

    • Unless you have excess trades and your team is perfect I would say neither.

      If you are trading out a player who averages 75 you should be going at least 20 points higher, and I would be happy with a 99 average unless you think a trade is worth an extra 16 points.

    • Gus is your real name SunnyGazza#9, or maybe Coniglio#16?

      Also, why are you S H O U T I N G?

    • I”M NOT SURE. HERE’S AN IDEA.. WHY DON”T YOU LOSE THE CAPS AND ACTUALLY NAME THE PLAYERS YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT??

  • Keep Shiels or SS to Pendles? Last two weeks in 80’s aren’t good enough for a mid keeper

    • BE of 189! Pendles is 91. Looks like this is the week to do it, waste of a trade? Thoughts?!

  • NICK DAL SANTO OR PENDLES?

    • Both excellent footballers at the top of their game.
      Hope that helps.

      QUESTION ANSWERED

  • Hey guys,

    My defence is such with 5 trades and 88k in the bank.

    Goddard, Gibbs, Enright, Suckling, Broughton, Gilbert, Heppell
    Bench: Buckley, Hibberd, Tuohy

    Thinking of going Buckley-Birchall/Waters, Heppell- Fisher
    Going to the do the buckley trade next week but unsure on the heppell trade. Think that fisher will average 90 for the rest of the year, but not sure if heppell can keep up his form this year (he might be rested for a game or two and has the bye in the grand final). Unbelieveably heppell-fisher is a downgrade.

    Thoughts?

    • just go hibberd to fisher, and put him on the field for either gilbert or heppel. save one more trade, and trading hibberd instead of buckley could help out while hibberd injured and in round 24 when he has the bye.

  • Lol, Josh Kennedy owners!

  • Teams in.