Dream Team Stock Market – R16



Although we’ve got a week off from our league games, some of you will be looking at trading to maximise your attack on the overall rankings, so let’s have a look at this week’s Stock Market review!

What a huge week of Dream Team scoring! Plenty of 2300s to be had and a hearty congrats to coaches who stuck the big ‘C’ on Gazza. There were some decent games of footy too. Although I’m happy that my Bombers got up, it was a sweaty-palmed, heart-in-throat ride watching the game from up in the stands! Pity about the Pies/Hawks blockbuster fizzing out early – I was really hoping that match would be a bit more of a spectacle. Loving the Suns showing a bit of fight now that they’ve found their feet at the top level, good on ‘em!

The Dream Team Stock Market has once again proven to be a somewhat painful mix of bull and bear. While most of our blue chip stocks were steady, a handful have had a dip, which means a relative bargain or two to finish some of your teams in the next few rounds.

I have to make a special mention of my girlfriend Em, who backs me to keep this up! Schweet as…

Plan, Plan, Plan

There are only three league rounds left until DT finals! For most of us who are locking horns with our mates, now is the time to have a good sit and think about our tactical approach (eg what do I have to do to lock my team in the top 4?) and our strategy (eg how am I going to manage my guns who have a bye in the finals?). Make sure that your tactics and strategy are in line – you don’t want to burn trades now and leave yourself short to sideways trade a gun or two with finals byes.

Of course, if you’re mounting an assault on the leaderboard, these multi-bye rounds are a prime opportunity for you to try and leapfrog the masses with a calculated trade or two.

In either case, happy planning!

Sell, Sell, Sell

Bryce Retzlaff – $150,400 DOWN$3,800 (UP$52,800) BE35. He’s not been a great money-earner and is questionable as a backup bench player given Vossy’s rotation of the green vest, so unfortunately Retzlaff falls into the ‘too hard’ basket. Yes, he’ll get more games, but he needs an 80+ score soon-ish to get his price moving again, or else he’ll stagnate at about his current value.

  • Stock tip: Tough one… Hold for a week or two and hope he pulls out a booming score, otherwise he’ll gain you a dour $55,000 if sold in R18.

Cam O’Shea – $212,400 UP$1,400 (UP$119,900) BE58. O’Shea has been a good pickup, playing most of Port’s games this season and appreciating steadily. However, his value topped-out in R13 and has dropped slightly, so anytime now is right for cashing him in.

  • Stock tip: Already topped out, trade out any time now to bank yourself a pleasing $119,000.

Sam Iles – $264,300 UP$15,200 (UP$153,900) BE50. Iles was a great pickup for astute coaches out there, debuting in R5 and playing in every Suns match since then. He was highly rated in pre-draft chatter last year and has been pretty solid, if not spectacular, so far. His lowest has been 47, with regular scores of 60+ and a high of 95, which is still in his rolling average. This 95 has helped to pump his value up to $264,300 and he is set for another price rise, making him a very handy late-season earner!

  • Stock tip: Projected to increase $6,200 this week, sell after R16 for around $270k and pocket an excellent return of $160k!

Brandon Matera – $189,200 DOWN$10,200 (UP$91,600) BE88. Ah young Brandon, so much promise but so little consistency! There’s no doubting his talent, but it doesn’t translate very well to a good return on investment. He has lost his coaches $10,200 this week and is projected to devalue another $11,900 after this weekend. While he may provide you with bench cover, his stock chart has him on a steady decline until R17, after which he’ll only get back up to around his current value.

  • Stock tip: Projected to drop $11,900 next week, so sell now if you need the coin and gain $91,600.

Andy Otten – $258,500 UP$4,800 (UP$116,100) BE83. After a promising start to the season, Otten has been struck down with recurring knee problems, which is a shame from a DT perspective as he has shown some ability with 96, 83 and 87 in his scoring range. His value has started to plateau after his last two of 69 and 52, and with a long-term projection of around $250-260k, his mooing days look like they are over.

  • Stock tip: Sell before R17 to gain $116,100 on your initial outlay.

Alex Johnson – $251,700 UP$5,400 (UP$159,200) BE58. Another good buy for astute coaches, Johnson has appreciated steadily to his current value of $251,700, particularly on the back of his last five scores of 57, 84, 72, 83 and 83. He is projected to flatten out at the $250k mark and settle to around $230k from this round onwards, but that could change if he strings together a few more 80s. He looks a very solid type and is excellent DEF or FWD bench cover (if you have another DEF/FWD MPP), but a check of tonight’s team lists will probably help to sway your decision.

  • Stock tip: Long-term analysis shows he’s topped out this week and will be on the decline, making a sharp $159,200 if you offload him now.

Blue Chip Bargains

I’ve re-classified the previous ‘Buy, Buy, Buy’ section to ‘Blue Chip Bargains’ to more accurately reflect an analysis of blue chip stocks that can be considered value buys, rather than stocks that are absolute must-haves.

Adam Cooney – $300,400 UP$7,800 (DOWN$79,200) BE13. The Coon-dawg looks fighting fit and back in form, with 110 and 114 in his last two games. He is moving freely, his work rate is up and he has had an impact in those games as well. We know he’s capable of putting up regular tons and should be fairly reliable as he gets about the business of steadying the Dog’s second half of this season.

  • Stock tip: Buy now as he has bottomed out this round, with a projected increase of $23,200.

Brett Deledio – $338,100 DOWN$11,600 (DOWN$33,200) BE101. Lids has been pretty consistent this year, with a tendency to come on strong with his DT output in the second-half of his games. However, he has recently had 79, 87 and 79 to drag his rolling average down and depreciate his value to $338,100. He’d be a pretty good pickup in your back line if you don’t already have him, as this is about as low as his value will get this year.

  • Stock tip: With a projected price drop of $2,000 next week, pick him up this week or next for under $340,000.

Matthew Boyd – $414,100 DOWN$14,700 (DOWN$64,100) BE98. It’s not often that we see Boyd in any ‘bargain’ section, but he is an inclusion based purely on bang-for-your-buck. He has been up-and-down with a last five of 93, 136, 70, 143 and 94, which is the reason for his recent devaluation. At $414,100 and $64k under his starting price, it’s hard to ignore this DT gun.

  • Stock tip: Get on this week as he has bottomed out for the year.

On The Up

Simon Buckley – $243,100 UP$14,100 (UP$145,500) BE42. Bucks Version 2.0 has made the most of his opportunities this year in a very strong Pies squad and has been a great investment for his coaches, whose patience is being rewarded handsomely after his score of 91 against the Hawks. He has one or two more price rises in him and he’ll hopefully get the games to appreciate that little bit more.

  • Stock tip: Projected rise of $11,200 this week, sell in R17-18 for around $265k for a superb gain of $160k+.

Max Bailey – $225,300 UP$26,300 (UP$127,700) BE25. It’s great to see Bailey fit and getting games after two years in the injury wilderness. He has been delivering very steady scores of late: 75, 78 and 84. That sort of output puts his value on a positive growth line and, more importantly, he provides excellent ruck cover with the current mini-epidemic of ‘turf toe’ going around.

  • Stock tip: Set to appreciate $10,200 next week, topping out in R16-17 at around $235k.

Paul Puopolo – $243,500 UP$8,400 (UP$151,000) BE47. The Poo has been pretty handy as bench cover or even a D7 in the past few weeks playing a team role for Hawthorn, covering wherever Clarko needs him. He had a run in the forward pocket last weekend and turned in an 86 to help his rolling average, which of course will see his value creep up over the next couple of weeks.

  • Stock tip: Sell after the Hawk’s bye in R17 for around $255k and gain $160k+.

Simon Phillips – $211,200 UP$20,000 (UP$113,600) BE12. Simon Phillips has flown under the radar with only 0.69% ownership, but will provide a very healthy return for his coaches. His last two have been 80 and 75, which is set to trend his value upwards. However, given Primus’ drive to inject fresh meat at Alberton, Phillips could prove to be dependable cover for your Dream Team.

  • Stock tip: Projected rise of $12,900 this week, topping out at around $225k after R16.

Trent McKenzie – $285,200 UP$11,100 (UP$187,600) BE54. After a huge game at Pattersons paddock, McKenzie is off the ‘sell’ list and is on the rise yet again. That 122 has his value heading to $300k+. If you have him though, that last performance would probably dampen your desire to sell such capable bench cover.

  • Stock tip: A projected rise of $7,700 this week, topping out after R17 for $300k+, making T-Mac a high-return prospect.

David Swallow – $282,300 UP$13,100 (UP$121,800) BE35. After looking like he was done at $286,800 back in R10, Swallow the Younger has put in two last scores of 88 and 100 to give his value a little boost in the right direction. His forecast value looks to be topping out at $300k or so, but if he keeps putting those numbers up, he’ll be very handy cover!

  • Stock tip: Projected increase of $15,300 next week, topping out at $300k in R17-18.

Dyson Heppell – $280,400 UP$6,800 (UP$147,900) BE40. We wrote him off after his value nose dived after R12, but Hepp has shown his class by bouncing back with 100 and 81 in the past fortnight. He has been spending more time in midfield and has proven to be an excellent pick for Essendon, particularly with his decision-making ability. He is on track to once again breach $300k, but those scores may have franked his ‘keeper’ status in your D7 slot and his DEF/MID MPP is a trump card.

  • Stock tip: Projected to rise $13,700 this week, topping out after R17 at $300k.

Tendai Mzungu – $229,900 UP$35,700 (UP$132,300). The Gu gets an honourable mention after delivering his first century on the weekend after being the most anticipated DT rookie this year! His MID/FWD DPP flexibility and an average of 71 in 6 games stamps him as the swingman that 35% of DT coaches will rely on for cover to see out the season.

  • Stock tip: Sell (if you must) after R18 for $260k.

On The Slide

Lance Franklin – $388,300 DOWN$28,300 (DOWN$24,500) BE144. It wasn’t a great day out for Buddy against the Pies last Sunday, except for his brief stint on the ball in the third quarter before he rolled his ankle. His value is projected to drop by $19,000 next week and he’s one to keep on your shortlist as a FWD upgrade.

  • Stock tip: Estimated to bottom out at $350k in R18-19.

In Review

It’s all about maximising your trades: seek the best value possible, whether buying or selling; or preserve them, depending on your tactics and strategy. Hopefully this analysis will help you map out your plans for the run home. Those trades are precious, especially as we approach the pointy end of the season so, as always, make every trade count and good luck in this chaotic MBR!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT

103 Comments

  • Good one TeeTee. I was looking at Boyd for the last midfield upgrade, but he still has a bye to come. Glad I kept Heppell and didn’t buckle in to the trap of upgrading backmen.

  • Ok, have to make a move this week.
    Have 9 trades up my sleeve and 300K + in the kitty. As I see it have 2 options

    1. Isles > Swan
    K Harper > J Riewodlt

    or

    2. Isles > Montagna
    K Harper > B Harvey

    In top 2000 and really hoping to move higher once others start running out of trades / copping donuts but have slid a few hundred spots n the past few weeks so am pulling the trigger now.

    • Isles to Swan is a good move an should be done immediately.

      Harper to Riewoldt or Harvey is not so good. Unless you have every other premium forward there are far better choices. You particularly don’t want Harvey now as he has a finals bye.

      Fyfe, Pavlich, O’Keefe, Goodes all miss finals byes.

      • Totally agree… Those 2 choices aren’t too flash. Those others stated above. Mate Sylvia would be a better option over jack reiwoldt!!! And based on current form that’s saying something! After his bye he will fire again… I hope;-)

      • have Pav and Goodes already, want overall rather than league. harvey gives me good coverage being a fwd/mid plus the only other roo I have is Petrie and can hide him in the rucks come his bye. Think Im going to need cover in my forwards this week as have Sylvia and Mzungu on the forwards bench with Harper and dont want him as an emergency especially with money in the bank and 9 trades left. Have Buddy and N Roo on the field but wouldnt be surprised if one pulled out last minute so want a good coverage player. Can only afford Boomer if I get Monty in the middle for isles unfortunatley so as I see it the two options I put forward are really all I really want to go with.

    • Actually just shifted around a few multi positional players, and can do isles to swan and dont need a further trade in the forwards, will shift pav back to the forwards next week and bring sylvia off the bench giving me two more premiums up front. Mzungu to the mids and I will have 8 trades and 162K in the bank, thanks for talking thru this with me.

  • Looove this article! Keep up the good work TeeTee

  • Hey guys, since we’re on the topic of stock market I would like your opinion on if these players will make there b/e so I can trade them in/out:

    Lower (bye): 82
    Poo (lions): 54
    Fisher (port): 82
    Goddard (port): 99
    Birchall (lions): 112

    Hibberd (richmond) :78

    Darling (cats) :65
    ROK (suns) :94
    Goodes (suns) :97
    Fyfe (bye) :99

    • Lower and Fyfe play the Swans next week

    • Hey Gerty

      • How ya doin Bertie?

        • Pretty good just got a nice pay rise. Being a professional DT guy rulz ;)

          Anyway

          Lower (bye): 82 – No
          Poo (lions): 54 – Yep
          Fisher (port): 82 – Yep
          Goddard (port): 99 – Yep
          Birchall (lions): 112 – Maybe, I’d lean towards no though

          Hibberd (richmond) :78 – 40/60

          Darling (cats) :65 – No
          ROK (suns) :94 – Yes
          Goodes (suns) :97 – Yes
          Fyfe (bye) :99 – Yes

    • Lower (bye): 82 = marginal
      Poo (lions): 54 = yes
      Fisher (port): 82 = yes
      Goddard (port): 99 = yes
      Birchall (lions): 112 = go close

      Hibberd (richmond) :78 = go close

      Darling (cats) :65 = marginal
      ROK (suns) :94 = yes
      Goodes (suns) :97 = yes
      Fyfe (bye) :99 = yes

      But… Only my humble opinion. :-)

  • I have to get 1 out these 3 in my midfield Cross, Cooney or Griffen

  • If i get griffen though i wont be able to afford fisher next week for my final upgrade however if i get cooney or cross i can

  • Tiny bit off topic guys, I’ve got Sandi on the pine and well covered- Cox, Smith, Hale/Petrie. I’m flirting with the idea of keeping him but with 5 trades left I’m thinking if I trade it’d be smartest to pull the trigger just before he comes back from injury rather than now, smart or weak?

    • I’m in the same boat (rucks Cox, Smith, Sandi, Bailey). I think if you’re ever going to trade Sandi, and you already have good cover, then this is the week to do it (for Lobbe) to make heaps of $$.

      I was pretty set on trading him this week, but my main aim is league, and with him only listed at 3 weeks (one of which is a bye week), I’m toying with the idea of keeping him. I guess it all depends on whether we think he’ll come back and continue his 100+ average or whether he’ll be below his best for the all-important last 4 weeks of the season.

      I’m still leading towards trading him for Lobbe this week, because it gives me enough cash for my last 1 or 2 upgrades (Heppell/Lower keeper?), and I’ve got 11 trades left so if he does come back and smash out some big scores I could just trade him back in for Smith down the track.

      But that’s just me

      • Very similar to me.. I think I’ll hold out. If I downgrade it’ll be to some no-name for the basement price. I still think they’re rushing him back, wish they’d keep him out til the first DT final for our sake.

  • In other pointless DT news, the Dream Team points leaderboard on the AFL site still reads:

    1 Bret Thornton Carlton 1674
    2 David Ellard Carlton 1662
    3 Marc Murphy Carlton 1611

    lolwut

    • Thornton’s pretty cheap too.. Thinking about upgrading Buckley to him, but worried about the finals bye.. But when you’ve scored that much I can handle him missing one bye.

  • Broughton or fisher? I want to get on broughton due to higher ceiling but fisher has the consistency. My backline is:

    Gibbs, Deledio, Birchall, Goddard, Heppel, Adcock, Stanley (Lower, Otten, Toy)

    Would probably do a lower -> Fisher/Broughton

    Thoughts?

    • If your goin for an overall score go as he has no more byes, but for a league either of them will do!

      I’ve got both :)

    • If your goin for an overall score go Fishsticks as he has no more byes, but for a league either of them will do!

      I’ve got both :)

      • fair enough, do you think broughton will keep his form going then?

        • Mundy and Barlow coming back later on may affect his scoring. May.

        • Once in form it’s pretty hard to get out of form!
          Confidence is the key,, with a solid month now behind him can’t see why he can’t keep it crankin!

  • Any word or news on Z Smith’s injurie?

    • The concussion or a new injury? I’m reading the concussion wont keep him out.

      • Nah I thought I herd about a possible jaw break?
        If it’s only concussion , yeah well he should be right then¡

        Cheers aye…

  • Sully,
    Thanks for the advice last week, went with it, darling to Callinan and upped to Boyd…….However may need a bit more advice now I have copped an injury..
    Dawes has given me a new headache. I have only 4 trades left and was hoping to bank to of these for sideways trades in the finals, have $120 in the bank. Was looking to use this cash to fix up my last defender, as I am/was happy with my forwards of Sylvia, Chapman, Fyfe, N Riewoldt, J Riewoldt, Goodes, Mzungu (Dawes, Callinan, Howe). However with two injuries on the benchthis changes things a little……..
    So do I Keep Dawes?
    Do I trade him for..
    .a premium (Pavlich/Buddy-when his price drops- or travis)……?
    or is there a mid range priced forward so I can keep the cash?

    btw last defensive trade was planned to be Otten/Heppell/Puop/Jacobs or maybe even Gram To Suckling (need about $100 to do this)

    Appreciate any input

    • You could always take a punt on Lobbe. Would free up loads of cash and if you saw Dawes as a cover player only, i dont think you lose much. This week is the week to do that, otherwise i’d just see what happens this week.

      Makes it tough when we dont know the rest of your side. Only one player with a finals bye in your forwards.

      • sorry mate

        mids Rockcliffe, Swan, Pendles, Boyd, Rok and Ablett (Kerr, Buckley, Prestia)

        Def Gibbs, Delidio, Goddard, Adcock, Heppell, Gram, Puop (Otten, Toy, Jacobs)

        Rucks Cox, Petrie (smith, cordy)

        Cheers

        • If it were me i’d bring ROK into the forward line and trade Kerr to a premium midfielder and maybe Dawes to Lobbe to utilise Petrie.

          • Seeing you have Petrie, I think Dawes > Lobbe is a great trade. The DPP will come in handy.

            Leaves you with three trades and plenty of cash to make those 3 last trades when the times right…..thats my opinion anyway. Chapman, GIbbs and Heppell have finals byes which would be the only sticking point.

            You have enough DPP players to upgrade whoever you like……

  • Liam Anthony out for who?
    have about 150000 in the bank

    • anyone in calvins captains section that you can afford unless you are going for league win then dont pick marc murphy but you have liam anthony so i’m going to assume you are out of the overall race…

      • im in a bad league, and i cant afford gablett, not murphy.
        im thinking like shiels or swan or pendles

      • Once in form it’s pretty hard to get out of form!
        Confidence is the key,, with a solid month now behind him can’t see why he can’t keep it crankin!

    • Swan

  • What is more important – extra cash or a DPP link?

    Option 1:

    Krak -> Lobbe then next week
    Iles -> Redden/Pendles

    Option 2:

    Krak -> Callinan then after the bye
    Iles -> Shiels

    Mids are already Boyd, Swan, Mitchell, Ablett, Bartel, Iles (really need to upgrade Iles to finish my mids)

  • I need to trade out rioli to boost my team for eliminator this week as my this is my last chance at overall glory due to a shit ranking. dont have much cash and i only want to use 1 trade. im thinking higgins or Nick riewoldt? what do you think?

  • #10 Regurgitator – Unit

    Classic album

    • I will lick your arsehole has a fat wickety wick wicked beat!!
      Unit is a great Album and there are a few units on this site 2!!

      That’s right mega, I’m talkin bout units like u ¡

  • This is probably a bad idea and I probably won’t do it BUT it tempts me:
    Best Team: Backs: Gibbs Delidio Goddard Fisher Suckling Adcock Stanley (Lower Puopolo Hibberd)
    Mids: Swan Ablett Boyd Mitchell Murphy Bartel (Mzungu Prestia Jacobs)
    Rucks: Cox Smith (J Tippett Mccauley)
    Forwards: Sylvia Franklin O’keefe Goodes Petrie Chapman N Reivoldt (Lynch Knights Howe)
    5 trades 101.9k
    My idea was to trade knights to calli this week and then next week puopolo/lower to broughhton and lynch/howe to the pav.
    This leaves me with a full team and mzungu howe/lynch stanley lower and Z Smith as cover but only with 2 trades.
    Any thoughts would be good.
    As I’m mainly going for a league win, I might not do thesse trades and do a similar strategy with different players later on in the season if I’ve had no LTI’s.

  • Anyone else looking at trading in Lecras or Brown to cover possible zero’s this week?

    • Le Cras in my view is a must – outside Cox / Priddis he is the third strongest DT and witht he easy draw the eagles have – WCE players will only profit in DT

      • Definitely bringing in LeCras at some point…..when is the question. Have a couple of muppets in my league to finish. But yeah, Eagles have a great draw for DT finals….

  • Whats going on with ” Assistant Coach” DREAM TEAM /PRO ? (and the same for SC)

    the Projected League Results – Round 16 – is not come’n up?

    where it tell you , your score and the Team your play’n Score?

    eg 2298 vs 2005
    2298 vs 2159
    2298 vs 2305

    I pay’d $20 for this? :)

  • Assistant Coach reckons GAJ will be at about 430K round 23

    LOL

  • hey can i get some advice – currently have $27,000

    forwards are : chappy, rioli, buddy, pavlich, nroo, petrie, higgins, mzungu, i smith, cal, dahl

    need to make a trade?? could go

    buddy > cloke
    rioli > ???

    Or cop a donut or two??

    • rioli to ??? is a great trade you fuck tard. Pick your own players then ask us what we think about them.

      • woah. chill out

        • haha chappo you little keyboard warrior.. tough guy!! people like you need to get your head kicked in – i’d fucken smash you faggot

          Oh an thanks for the ADVICE fuckhead!!!

    • Cop a donut or 2 would be my advice. Keep Buddy for the remainder of the season. League wins is all you can be going for by the sounds and any trades you might make now are more likely to lose you further league games by having no trades left for when you need them down the track.

    • boom booms a cunt ai

  • HAY IS ANYONE WHO HAS GAJ NOT MAKING HIM CAPTAIN

    • Im leaning towards presti or glass. Glass could see a lot of ball down back vs the cats and presti is playing the kangas. They might push him up through the mid and let him run on the ball for a bit. Probably presti C and glass VC just to be safe

    • Swan for me. He is mad keen on DT by all accounts and is a competitive bugger. He will do everything possible to get close to Gaz effort last week. Gaz against Sydney is not a safe bet IMO. Stats don’t lie which makes me think otherwise but I have never and will never pick captain against Sydney even if they are coming off a 175. Hope I don’t live to regret it…..

      • Have a closer read of Calvins Captains.. GAJ has been smashing it, great record against Sydney, Swans have been giving away scores to premium mids and Craig Bird (only tagger) is injured.GAJ will go north of 130.. Having said that, I think Roos are shyte and Swanny will be better.

  • haven’t seen coniglio or colonel on in a while. Where are they now?

  • Fyfe or Pav for an upgrade next week….leaning towards Pav as his numbers seem bigger and more consistant of late

    • Pav has less chance of breaking down towards the end of the season.

      Fyfe is still only 19 remember.

      • yeah I thought Fyfe’s age might mean he tires a bit in the latter part of the season….cheers AL

  • im bringing in pav next week was toying with the idea of a double trade next week including fyfe as well but as stated above i reckon he will start to tire towards the end of the season.

    • Dt Pro suggests a 64% chance of Fyfe tireing later in the season with a 15% chance of falling asleep on field.

  • Not sure if its been mentioned above but Phillips is out with a shoulder so he deffinetely will not be rising this week. Looked bad as well so he might be out for a while