DT Planning: Do I need to change my structure?

Like many others, I have got Grimes am going through the possibilities of how trading him out will affect my team structure and particularly my backline scoring potential. Conventional thinking is I upgrade to another “keeper” in the backline. However, I’ve got a few issues in spending more $$ on 2011 defenders which are not consistently pumping out 100’s.

Alternatively, coaches without Grimes are likely to be looking to upgrade to another “keeper” in the coming weeks down back and will be going through the same decision making process – How can I strengthen my back half / do I even need to???

The following thoughts at the forefront of my and a lot of coaches minds this week:

  • I’ve missed the Adcock boat – and do I want spend another $60k to go from one injury prone player to another??
  • I could bring in Shaw – but do I ride the rollercoaster hoping each week he doesn’t cop that dreaded backline tag and pump out a 50?  No thanks.
  • Enright/Delidio are maybes but are these guys really having “Premium” DT seasons?? The way the game is being played at the moment I just can’t rely on them to serve me up 100’s each week.

Can my hard earned $$ be spent elsewhere???

Like many of you, I am close to finalising some sort of 2-3-4 week trading plan to trade up to my “keepers” to hold and ride the highs and lows with until round 24.  For many of us, this involves picking up blokes like Chappy, Didak, Goodes in the forward line – players that have got that low score in their rolling average who we want to pick up on the cheap over the next couple of weeks (not to mention the added bonus of having DPP attached).

Like me, most coaches are planning to lock away 7 forward “keepers” with probably one half-decent spud regularly playing to give some cover on the bench (Darling, Tapscott, Matera, Smith, Krak).

The worry I have is that as the year progresses, I will need to fill holes around the ground due to the byes each week – do I really want to be bringing one of these Rooks onto the field on a regular basis to plug my holes?

The solution

It goes against conventional thinking but this isn’t a conventional DT year. I think I need an 8th keeper in the forward line.

My 8th keeper (lets say I pick up Dids on the cheap next week) will actually be playing on field almost every week. Here is how is plays out:

  • I move blokes like Chappy/Pav/Goodes/McGylnn up to cover byes my midfield when required – Dids gets a game
  • One of my forwards has a bye – Dids gets a game
  • One of my Rucks has a bye – I DPP Petrie up to Ruck so Dids gets a game
  • The general strikes and Higgins/Chappy/Rioli miss a week – Dids gets a game.

I’ve gone through the fixture list and with the exception of the 2 Port Adelaide byes – I will need to sub a Midfielder, Forward or Ruck nearly every week to Round 24. So yes – Dids will be on field and I won’t be having my hard earned $$ sitting on the pine.

I think this gives me a great advantage over my opponent with Dids playing each week whilst Dr DreamTeam subs on Matera for a 50/60 points or suffers a donut as he doesn’t have enough bench cover.

The downside – or is it?

I can hear what you’re all thinking – yes, I’ve now got one less “keeper” in the backline. But – this year, our backs aren’t as consistent or as high scoring as I would like – so in essence I’m taking the punt that my 1 extra Nicoski/Suckling/Duigan/Stanley/B.Smith will be play each week and give me a respectable 70 or so.

Yep, I might leak a few points to opposition backs but I think I will make it up (and more) up on the forward end of the ground with an extra “keeper” who has the ability to pump out 100’s on a regular basis and courtesy of the dreaded Bye, will be playing every week.

So fellow DTers, buy the 8th keeper and use the Bye as an advantage. I’m over dreading the Bye each week – I want to embrace it knowing it will give me the edge!

Article sent in by Clembo.

79 Comments

  • I dont think anyone(maybe 1 guy i know ;) ) is good enough to have a full time & an 8th keeper to cover byes.
    I think you finalise the best 22 you can that is pictured in your mind then save trades for LTI’s.

    • I log in rarely however i read all the posts on this website. Really enjoy it…

      TKOL provides a point of difference and seem as though he is a proven DTer.

      It would be good to read a short article from him each week.

      • Are you TKOL in disguise?

      • 2nd that idea, first time post & always look forward to the smarts tkol presents

        • I am not TKOL. I am just a terrible 6000’th in the country trying to make it in DT world.

      • I agree, get TKOL an article a week, even if it’s just him talking himself up Dr DT style. Could even be one where he mocks Dr DT haha. Just gotta keep up that 72 ranking at least…

    • I was thinking about a really cool rebuttal, but hey, who cares, I just “Strategically Evolved”.

      Eliminator is going to be fucked this year.

      P.S: I wish I had a starting lineup like KOTL.

  • interesting article. deciding on an 8th keeper for any position probably depends on the mix of teams that your players in those positions represent.

    for example, i won’t be missing a forward through a bye until round 14. my forward line is chapman, riewoldt, goodes, franklin, b harvey, Stevie J and darling. but in my situation an ‘8th keeper might come in handy towards round 21 where the roo’s and cats have their second byes.

    i think the midfield is definitely a place to consider a 7th keeper. because lets face it, thats where the bulk of your scoring is going to come from and if your down a matthew boyd in round 20, your going to want someone to come in get you a score as close to his as possible. maybe a david swallow or a harris, rather than a noob rookie who gets 55-60. the reason why this might be a better idea in the midfield because the bridge in scoring between a midfield keeper (e.g averaging 115) and a rookie replacing a keeper during a bye (e.g averaging 60) is far far greater than the difference between a backline/forward keeper (e.g averaging 90) and a backline/forward rookie replacing a keeper during a bye (e.g averaging 60). so having a 7th midfield keeper who can average 80-85 (swallow/harris) is going to save you 20-25 per week when you have a mid keeper missing through a bye. doesn’t seem like a whole lot but will add up in the end something to think about!

    • Love your Gravatar, wallcob! You are a legend. Are you going to try to get over for Round 12? You should. If that is too soon, then Round 18 is the other time we’re looking at getting to Melbs.

      • aha cheers warne dawg! i needed one that incorporated the name :)

        massively keen for melbs at some point this year. il check out the dates during rnd 12 and rd 18 and weigh them up with uni etc and get back to you boys. last time i was in melbs for footy was the epic saints cats clash of round 14 2009. went to 4 games of footy across the weekend was amazing! definitely keen for another similar weekend of live footy, DT and drinking.

    • 60 or 90, 85 or 115. Seems the same brother…

      • yeah your right mate but im saying if you take a 60 from a defender/forward/mid rookie and compare that with the score of a premium mid and a premium defender/forward the gap is far bigger between the 60 and the midfield premium = more points leaked.

  • I’ve had similar thoughts as this article. Petrie will be invaluable for Cox & Sandi byes and injuries.

    Then obviously the 13 playing mids & fwds, there is always going to be a bye and/or injury to the premiums. You would be most (un)lucky if everyone was playing and you were forced to sit a Didak on the bench.

    And defenders are shite this year. Stanley or Lower giving a 70 isn’t all that bad compared to a Matera 50

    • I disagree with your first point Jack.

      From Rd 16, Freo and WCE will have had their byes. At that point I will cash in Zac Smith (downgrade to Nathan Vardy who will play) for an upgrade elsewhere and dispense with ruck cover altogether.

      Hence I don’t need Petrie at all (he’s not good enough to be a fwd keeper) and J. Tippett at $114k (DPP ruck/fwd) would have been a waste of money who doesn’t make you any cash.

      However, love Danny Stanley and will keep one of Lower, Stanley, or Batchelor as an 8th defender, with Duigan being a reasonable 7th.

      • Petrie is easily good enough to keep as an 8th forward. Tippet will be a great downgrade for Zac Smith using Petrie as forward and ruck cover as he will play, no guesswork neccesary.
        He looks ripe to pump out some big scores this year as North are looking to him as the go to man upfront.
        I will be keeping Petrie and am confident he will give me an advantage over teams who have unreliable rooks as cover.

      • Not sure how you can say Petrie isn’t a potential forward keeper – at least as your 8th. He missed most of last season and was always going to take some time to get going this year. At the moment of all forwards who have played 3 or more games he is ranked 18th for average points per game with 85.2. Lance Franklin currently has the 8th best average with 91.25.

        6 points per round (assuming you are aimming to have the best 7 forwards) over the rest of the season is just 100points – hardly worth a trade IMO unless your team is perfect!

        • @kuruki and redbull

          Ok fair enough, I take your points.

          I guess at the start of the year if I was to select Petrie I would have needed a DPP fwd/ruc to make the most of him.

          This meant also getting either J. Tippett or Hale (Lobbe injured) neither of whom I wanted.

          I decided to go the ‘leaner’ option of Cox, Big Sandy, and Z. Smith on the basis that I would only have to make one (and then entirely optional) ruck change all year, downgrading Smith to Vardy say after Rd. 16.

          Just realised I gave the impression I was trading Petrie out. No I don’t have him at all!! I never selected him and don’t regret it.

          • Fair enough. I took the option of having Petrie as a forward and J Tippett as my 4th ruck. I also took a punt on Broc McCauley as a 3rd ruck. My reasons were the 3rd and 4th ruckmen should never be needed with Petrie as a DPP. This meant I had to spent a little extra to have Tippett but it meant I was able to cover Cox and Sandi’s byes with Petrie.

            So far it has worked fairly well with the highlight round 5 when I used the emergency loophole with McCauley – keep his 86 and then used Petrie as a forward who pumped out 143. I have the option to cash Petrie in after Round 16 when Cox and Sandi’s byes are done. But he might be worth keeping due to the extra flexibility and cover for an injuries so it will be a matter of wait and see.

      • +1, he looked great last week at the cattery and is their ONLY go to guy.

  • Clembo, this is easily one of the best articles I have read as it is proposing something most people would never think about. I am making sure that I keep a Duigan, Harris and Tapscott on each line for this exact reason, but an 8th forward takes it to a whole new level. I love the idea and will seriously consider it.

  • Didak having a horrible year…..Krak and Blair getting his former points in the forward line, Cloke and Dawes snaffling everything…..Pendles, Ball, Swan and Thomas getting everything in the middle = not many scraps left for didak…..got rid of him last week
    Any strategy based upon him as a keeper is a tad flawed in my humble opinion…..looks to be playing injured too

    • dont think the strategy is bad per se, just don’t like the Didak option…..btw almost there on the forward line in terms of that strategy with Chappy, Goodes, N Voldt, J Voldt, Fyfe, Dawes and Sylvia….bench is Darling, Tapscott and Matera…

      • what do you mean almost? thats a great fwd line, you could easily do 1 more upgrade to be your 8th fwd

    • I think the point of the article is having an 8th keeper in the forward line, rather than ensuring you get Didak in. The player you actually decide to go with, if you were to go with this structure, is arbitrary.

      I like the idea and am seriously considering working towards it. I was going to be aiming at bringing in Goddard in the near future, but this might be a higher priority. Especially with so many of the keepers for the fornt half having DPP, this gives you an edge in just about any week (like last week when Collingwood had the bye and some players were down Swan and Pendles). Having that extra Ace might just do the trick.

      • agree on the strategy, sorry meant to say that in the first reply……..just having a down on dids moment

        • I guess this strategy is also one of the reasons i am contemplating going Curnow to Okeefe this week, to give another DPP

          • Or Pavlich…..but money could decide it

          • Fair enough. I’d started typing my reply before yours showed up.

            I have Pav, Goodes, Chapman, Krak, Fyfe and Prestia as the DPP’s in my line-up. 2 as mids and 4 as forwards. I was thinking of adding Sylvia or ROK to that list, to go with the rest of the guns in Mid/Fwd. Great fexibility and high scores in every position every week. Hopefully.

    • how many times do i have to tell you didak is pathetic and is just this years brad johnson he is 27 and looks 40 time to retire.

  • A highly thought-provoking article – As the year progresses and if trading is timed well, there will actually be scope for having ‘keepers’ on the bench on every line. Some people WILL have the cash and won’t know where to spend it (remembering that almost all 2010 players started at a price 10% lower than normal to cater for the extra bench – that’s an extra $500K to use even accounting for the extra 3 $92K rookies) . After all, not every player on he ground needs to cost or be worth over $400k.

  • Interesting concept Clembo. If I’m correct, the principle that you are advocating is that instead of keeping say a mid price midfielder and a mid price forward on the bench for cover, you downgrade one to a DPP and upgrade the other to a premium DPP (or use an existing premium DPP) to switch between the lines.

    I like it, although the change in strategy will potentially cost a few trades to implement if you’ve been working on the mid price cover strategy.

  • dont know what cheapers to pick up if i trade grimes

  • Puopolo, Retzlaff, Hibberd, Jacobs, Callinan, that kid from Sydney whose name escapes me – have a look at Chook’s Rooks for starters mate.

  • thanks

  • Lets draw back for second to my old friend history.
    Every year there are some freak rookies that play the role of the “8th” gun towards the end of the year.
    This particular player scores so well at seasons end its usually are a toss up between them and a 6th “gun” for the final field position.
    Previous players of this nature include Liam Anthony, Rhys Palmer & Brad Dalziell
    This years versions of that “8th” gun will be played by Mzunga & Callinan. Both will come into our sides as downgrades shortly and hopefully push their way into our starting line ups!

    • Add 2009 Broughton to that list ;)

      • Ahhh 2009 Broughton, what a great man he was!

        Another point of history there too. The boom colt never kicks on the next season, although Rockliff is having a fair crack SO FAR this season.

        • He’ll keep going too. Smart footballer and fitness was his weakness…… fixed. Will not drop off!

    • Yes i saw the mistakes in that, Im only human(at typing not coaching)

    • Do you really think Callinan and Mzungu will contribute good scores though? Provide some cash yes, but I’ll wait and see if they add points. Particularly Callinan who will play forward for Adelaide where the ball hasn’t really been getting.

      Will be interested to see whether Gold Coast have more wild cards to play with respect to rookies. Surely they’re all about getting games into their players so might look to blood some even younger guns toward the end of the season?

      • Absolutely I do.
        They’re the Curnows of the SANFL & WAFL the past few years respectfully. Mind you they have been injured so it will take a while to hit their straps, but when the do we will have good problems for a change!

        • Hey TKOL,

          Just out of curiosity..how many trades have you used so far?

          Cheers

          • Ha. Awkward question

          • Poor old TKOL has already burnt 8 trades… Some rippers in there.. Montagna to Mitchell, Tappy to Chappy last week just in time for Chappy to pump out a 70ish score and drop 30k in the next few weeks.. One of the greats TKOL…

            Apparently Adcock and Enright are still to come so there goes another 3 or 4 trades by the time he culls a cow for the upgrade..

            The best thing is he should be okay to cover any LTI’s when he runs out of trades as he has the Cam Richardson and Jarad Irons in reserve… Irons what an inspired choice TKOL – he has been a beauty, fattening up beautifully, back on the supp. list….

        • Have to agree with you there mate. There are always guys coming from left field at the end of the season and Mzungu is an absolute gun. Will score very well.

      • Yes and Yes. Zungers is gonna carve it up.

    • Mzungu Petrie Krak Duigan These are the four i am hoping will provide cover for me for most occasions. Will seriously consider adding a premium mid forward as an 8th forward and 7th mid cover. Will even use Duigan as 7th back if i cannot afford the xtra premium, as i think money spent on that mid forward cover will be better then money spent on a 7th back. I cant see very many weeks at all with bye rest and injury that my xtra premium would be sitting on the bench.

    • Problem for you is TKOL you hae already missed out on the rookie that you speak off – in D Heppell of the Bombers.. What more bang for your buck could you want out of this fella.. At worst he is a rock solid 8th Defender or 7th Mid.. In reality averaging 80 plus he is a solid 7th defender for bargain price as most premo defenders are struggling to do much better than the mid 80′s to 90….

      Pity you missed the Heppell boat – chump !!! Not to worry Cameron Bruce was an inspired choice on your behalf !!!

      How could the great TKOL miss Heppell – school boy error !!!

  • grimes out. youngster in already have duigan,toy , lowerr , puops and smith you should i get ???

    • If that is how many young players you have in your backline, I wouldnt be adding another I’d be getting a keeper.

  • hey guys i checked out the assistant coach and if all goes to plan this is what ill be doing over the coming weeks:

    this week: grimes > adcock and curnow > isaac smith (295k in bank)

    next week: d.swallow > mitchell and otten > hibberd (215k in bank)

    after round 9: harris > swan and toy > jacobs (75k in bank)

    after round 10: tapscott > mzungu and darling > chappy (35k in bank)

    after round 11: libba > callinan and lower > enright (60k in bank)

    Once ive done this ill have 8 trades to keep for injuries/finals and my team will look like this:

    goddard, gibbs, delidio, shaw, adcock, enright, heppell (hibberd, jacobs, puopolo)
    swan, boyd, pendles, bartel, mitchell, redden (i.smith, prestia, callinan)
    sandilands, cox (mccauley, j.tippet)
    chappy, buddy, goodes, n.voldt, fyfe, petrie, knights (mzungu, harper, krakeour)

    obviously i might get a different rook if the ones i listed are playing crap but that is approximately what it’ll be after round 11, what are your thoughts guys? thanks so much! :)

    • very strong side with very weak bench cover, who knows how those rookies on the bench will come along though

  • for the love of god play bloody j tippet or m lobbe

  • Uncle Fester – close.. Thinking you updgrade an extra (8th) forward line player – he covers you’re holes, plays most weeks and have one less upgrade down back. You keep a Duigan/B.Smith type player down back knowing he will get a game every round.

    You bank on the forward “keeper” hitting higher scores than the “keeper” backman you’ve lost and most importantly getting insurance for donuts during the season giving you an edge.

    And yep, Didak just an example – as forwards tend to fluctuate more in price due to the nature of their scoring, whoever you go for will serve the same purpose as long as you’ve got a couple of DPP’s in the mix.

    TKOL – good point re; Mzungu & Callinan potentially taking this role deeper into the season – for this strategy to gain maximum benefit we bank on the fact the rookies coming in 2nd half of the season don’t have the impact of an Anthony, Palmer etc. Could go either way – but thinking I’ll take the punt.

  • Hey guys need some help, Do u think that these trades are worthy are just a waste;

    This round;
    prestia – i.smith/wallis/jacobs
    richardson – mzungu
    (If prestia and richardson are not named then i will probably make these trades, if so then I might hold off)

    Next Round;
    d.swallow – pendlebury
    matera – ? Lynch or stanley – hibberd

    Any advice appreciated. Also is the stock market article usually posted today or tommorow. Cheers

    • I’d suggest maybe keeping prestia OR richardson, unless you have a lot of trades left. Upgrading Swallow next week is a good decision; he won’t be rising much more.

      • Cheers mate, got 18 trades left so I think i’m travelling alright. Your right about swallow, don’t think he will go up to much after this round.

    • no stockmarket this week

  • Having DPPs in your Mids both to Fwds and Backs is basically the same strategy as that being put forward here. I’ve been working towards having Deledio and Pavlich as essentially two extra Mids so they can float forward or back depending on who’s missing there, or play as Mids if I’m down too many (e.g. R13 – Swan and Pendles). In theory it’s a great strategy… in reality it’s a lot harder to pull off, especially when your blokes go down injured all the time!

  • Sometimes you have to close your eyes and pray that when you piss it comes out your little jappa and not the noos.

  • bartel, selwoood. champppy, watson or mitcheellll who to get,

  • Problem for you is TKOL you hae already missed out on the rookie that you speak off – in D Heppell of the Bombers.. What more bang for your buck could you want out of this fella.. At worst he is a rock solid 8th Defender or 7th Mid.. In reality averaging 80 plus he is a solid 7th defender for bargain price as most premo defenders are struggling to do much better than the mid 80’s to 90….

    Pity you missed the Heppell boat – chump !!! Not to worry Cameron Bruce was an inspired choice on your behalf !!!

    How could the great TKOL miss Heppell – school boy error !!!

    • Ha. Frog a Doodle or Flog a Doodle? Hows your team going champ? You got something to back up your tongue like he has?

    • Newbies dissing a pro….

  • Thems fightin words

  • How come people keep saying things like; “ill trade in (x) who will give me between 50-60” I reckon people put too much emphasis on averages… i mean sure they’re good to have but unless a player has come across the same situation at least 4-5 times its not the whole picture.. prime example Adam Goodes if you trade him in you should say “I’ll trade in goodes who could potentially give me somewhere between 40-140” I’ve just noticed a couple of my mates keep saying things like “with goodes’ 100 ill get 2100 this week” then get all pissed off when he pulls a 70..

    averages will be more useful after the half way point i reckon.. go with form/gut a little more for an edge… just a thought…

    • agreed to an extent. goodes has averaged 90+ for ever so I don’t think 6 games are a bad guess for him. players like pratt etc. may have inflated averages and will return to normal soon. Can’t believe he is the most traded in for grimes! look at his history lads!

  • This week I’ve got no cover for my backs or mids but I don’t want to trade to let my cows fatten a little more. Here’s my plan:

    Next week: Atley -> I Smith (+$112,000), D Swallow -> Redden (-$120,000)

    Week after: Darling/Knights -> T Lynch (+$210,000), Curnow -> Pendlebury (-$180,000)

    Based on BEs and current form, I should be able to do these trades and it would be nice if Pendlebury’s price drops a bit too. This would pretty much complete my midfield and it would look like:
    Swan, Pendlebury, Boyd, S Thompson, Redden, Judd (Libba, Hibberd, I Smith)

    Good trades?

    • Watch Redden, is there better proven performers in your price range? otherwise all good :)

      • Yeah, that’s another reason why I’m saving the trades for another week, it’ll give me a better look at everyone involved, especially the rookies. I went for Redden because he’s got a reasonably high BE this week and could drop to about $400k which is pretty cheap for someone averaging almost 110. Unless Atley has a blinder this week (or I trade out someone else instead), I’ll probably only have $410k to spend.

  • Is chapman worth getting in midfeild or would you only pick him in the forward line?

    • Forwards only mate, plenty of gold available in the Mids!!

      • Yeah my thought too, my forward line is kicking ass at the moment thou with 5 premiums+ Petrie Rioli+Darling. Where as my midfield could do with some improving now that curnows out. Thats why i was considering this idea. Still highly doubt I’d bring him in midfield, just floating the idea around

  • Higgins higgins higgins what is going on!!! Becoming a bit unreliable now. Is trading him a viable option or should i keep him a bit longer. Missed two games now. Any thoughts and who should i trade to if trade recommended. I have 86K. Also thinking of getting rid of Goddard hes been terrible this year and has lost about 100k of his original value. who should i trade him for if i was to dump him
    Reply

  • help! not sure what to do now my def is seriously week, and i need 1 more mid and fwd premo but as i have already traded heavily to get here (1st year DTer) i’m a little unsure wether i should just hang onto the rest of my trades for a little longer or pick up the premos that are on the move…

    Team is:
    God, Enright, Gibbs, Adcock, Heppel, Stanley, Duigan (Buckley, Lower, Otten)
    Swan, Boyd, Embley, Stanton, Selwood, Conca (Harris, Krack, Hib)
    Sandi, Cox (Smith, McCauley)
    Goodes, Sylvia, Buddy, Voldt 1& 2, Fyfe, I Smith (Tap, Prestia, Matera)

    Targets in list of priority are:
    1 downgrade – round 9
    Ablett & Lynch – round 10
    Chappy & Mzungu/Calinan?- round 11
    Lids & downfrade? – round 12

    this would mean i only have 6 trades left for LTI’s for round 13 on and the following team:

    GOD LIDS ENRIGHT ADCOCK HEPPEL STANLEY (Duigan, Lower,?)
    SWAN BOYD SELWOOD ABLETT STANTON EMBLEY (Mzungu, Hibbered, ?)
    SANDI COX (McCauley, Smith)
    GOODES SYLVIA BUDDY N.VOLDT J.VOLDT FYFE CHAP (Krak/Prestia, Lynch, Smith)

    Am I mad, should i wait longer to trade in these premos as i am only really interested in winning my league???

    sorry for long post, appreciate all comments.