Chook’s Rooks – Round 7

AFL footballers are going to great lengths to emulate their heroes these days. You needn’t go past the reigning premiers for some examples. Dayne Beams is so desperate to be the next Dane Swan, he’s got the tatts to prove it. Dale Thomas, Alan Didak and Scott Pendlebury are clearly huge Ghost fans, with Daisy rocking the windswept Patrick Swayze look, Didak doing a decent Demi Moore impression and Pendles honouring Whoopi Goldberg with his mid-length dreads.

Over at Carlton, Ed Curnow had his hopes pinned on being the next Michael Barlow. Like Barlow in 2010, Curnow’s a mature-age rookie who stepped straight into senior footy and delivered premo-like scores from the get-go. There’ll never be another Barlow, of course, and where the Freo man was pumping out 130s, Curnow was coming up with 110s. Still, who are we to scoff at centuries from blokes we bought from the Dream Team bargain bin? And then comes the sad part of the story. There’s Curnow, running around at Blues training yelping “I’m the next Michael Barlow, I’m the next Michael Barlow!” to anyone who’ll listen. Brock McLean, keen to steal away some of the young gun’s midfield minutes, stops doing burn-outs in the car park long enough to say: “Oi, Ed. You’re Dream Team tonnes and rapid price increases may be reminiscent of Mick Barlow, but don’t forget he suffered a season-ending injury, too.”More like Brock McDirty, but, anyway, Ed knows what he has to do. And so it unfolds that in the first quarter of Carlton’s Monday night match against St Kilda, Curnow goes and gets himself rubbed out. It wasn’t season-ending – I’ve heard four weeks – but serious enough to force a tough decision on us DTers. After 13 against the Saints, Curnow dropped a smidge and will take a breakeven of 90 into his next game, whenever that’ll be. I’ll be taking a wait and see approach at this stage.

Three-or-more gamers

Curnow’s injury-depleted score and the absence of Western Bulldogs midfielder Tom Liberatore left a big hole at the pointy end of the rookie ranks. Fitting, I guess, that the biggest rookie of all stepped up to the fill the gap. Gold Coast ruck Zac Smith scored the only 100 of the round to take his total money gain past $100 grand. That’ll be a tasty bit of cash to access once he’s done his job of covering doughnuts for your starting rucks (post-round 16 for those with the Cox-Sandi combo). But you don’t want to know about the guys that are flying – the Smiths, Heppells and Darlings of the game – you want to know who’s drowning, about to leak hard-earned cash if you don’t kick ‘em to the curb. Well, after Curnow, Brisbane back-fwd Jesse O’Brien has the highest breakeven, taking a BE of 80 into round 8 following a sub-affected score of 15 in the first Qclash. Fremantle’s Jayden Pitt can’t use a green or red vest as an excuse for his lowly 37, giving him a new BE of 76. Now that he’s priced in the region of $300,000, Essendon’s Dyson Heppell has to contend with a BE of 67. He’s scored above that in all of his games so far and his BE is beginning to become irrelevant as he shapes as a potential seventh defender.

Two gamers

If you were thinking of downgrading Curnow to a rookie on the verge of their first price rise, think again. All the options here are forwards or defenders, with little to get excited about. North Melbourne defender Cam Pederson made his long-awaited follow-up to THAT round one score, but only managed 42 in second appearance. Teammate Kieren Harper was also less impressive in his second outing for the Kangaroos, although Skilled Stadium against an in-form home team is a tough place to pull big scores. Harper followed his first-up 61 with a 40, giving him a BE of -29, while Pederson’s is -62. Gold Coast forward Liam Patrick did well in his first full outing, scoring 79 in the Suns’ win after being the sub in his debut game against Essendon. He now has a BE of -24, but can expect that to drop further once his sub-affected score of 21 drops out of calculations. The vest has been a blight on Jamie Cripps’ start to his AFL career, too. After debuting off the St Kilda substitutes bench last week, Cripps this week was the recipient of the red vest when he suffered an ankle injury while on 37 points. His BE is nought, so will make money as long as he plays. I haven’t seen an update yet, so keep an eye out before you fish for Cripps.

One gamers

Eleven players debuted in round seven – as many in one week as I can remember, although only three of them reached the half-century. The top scorer was GC forward Tom Lynch, who justified his higher starting price of $120k with a 95. The Hawthorn first gamers were next, with Isaac Smith’s excellent second half raising his score to 89, and Paul Puopolo’s poor second restricting him to 62. They’re both priced at $92,500, but I’m a tad concerned about their job security at this stage.

Let rip in the comments with any trades you’re making this week that involve rookies.

246 Comments

  • The Crows website provides a glimmer of hope that Andy Otten will play – though the wording is a bit ambiguous:

    http://www.afc.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/4417/newsid/113365/default.aspx

    • Looks like its time to tarde out otten then, will be 3+ weeks if hes not scheduled to have a run till next week which is probably gonna be at sanfl level before returning to afl.

  • What has happened to freo’s Duffield this year? Last year he was a bit of a gun, looking for a trade for Grimes and I’m surprised no one has mentioned him.

    Also who do people prefer – Deledio or H. Shaw? Is Shaw’s recent hot form due to end and his scores return to his previous averages of ~ 80? Also worth noting that Shaw has already had one bye, Deledio still has two remaining. Decisions decisions!!

  • Grimes to Puops,
    Curnow to Pendles (Only problem with this is the lack of js with puopolo, but he’ll be my 9th defender behind Toy)

    or

    Curnow to I.Smith
    Grimes to Shaw/Adcock/Rawlings (Gives me the extra cash).

    I know having an extra premium mid is more important, but at this early stage in the season is it really a requirement for my midfield to be complete? It’ll be basically finished if I bring Pendles in this week, however it’ll leave insecurities in my back line if Puopolo doesn’t play, only having one emg that will play in Toy.

    Help The Southside Way, or else that’ll be the direction I’ll be heading in!

  • Given that I have cover for grimes this week, im very tempted to downgrade to Benny Jacobs whether named or not. 28 Touches 5 marks 6 tackles on the weekend to be amongst the best second week running. He’s not far away I can sense it! Tackles is the key, primus wants that kind of effort. Gives me 350k in my kitty. Hello pendles/mundy

    • Pendlebury over Munday anyday!

      • I do intend to get Mundy at some stage as he is a) unique b)im goin for league so I don’t have byes to worry about. But pendles is the favourite this week. I wonder how the bye will treat him

  • With no confidence in the backline rooks, I’m thinking Grimes to H Shaw this week. Duigan is still able to make some cash and with a full team on the field I’ll wait and watch with him.

    Next week Cam Richardson to Tom Lynch and Curnow to Isaac Smith, depending on how things run in round 8, and on how long Curnow is out for. The way Missy Higgins is letting me down I’d as soon trade him out as Curnow.

  • what do u rekon curnow to didak or wait a few more for his price to sink like the titanic???

    thoughts?

    • as my old grandpa norris used to say: youve got to risk it to get the biscuit.

    • Didak has to be a risky trade. Collingwood just keep producing gun midfielders which means didak isn’t getting the midfield time he has previously. And he’s such a mercurial forward that he’s more valuable up there than others. Makes his DT scores suffer though.

  • My plan of attack is;

    This week: Grimes to Rawlings which leaves me with $152,500 or Adcock which leaves me with $128,600.
    Next week: Saying I went with Rawlings and Swallow goes up to his projected price and I trade him to Issac Smith and Lower to Ben Jacobs. I would be left with around 430k.
    Rnd 10: Assuming Prestia has not played and Darling has rose to 279k I will go those two to Pendles and PAV with about 28k left, more if Prestia plays this week.

    My team them would be:
    DEF: Goddard, Gibbs, Deledio, Rawlings, Heppell, Jacobs, Duigan (Thompson, Toy, Puopolo)
    MID: Swan, Boyd, Bartel, Selwood, Pendles, Harris (Curnow (hope it’s under a month), Smith, Hibberd)
    RUC: Cox, Sandilands (Smith, Derickx)
    FWD: Franklin, Sylvia, Pavlich, Stevie J, ROK, N.Riewoldt, Knights (Matera, Tapscott, Richardson)
    Trades Left: 11
    Upgrades left: 3. 4 if I feel Curnow won’t make it back to his early season form.

    Hopefully team will be set by round 13/14.

  • Grimes>Poo
    Curnow>Mitchell

    Next Week
    Matera>Smith
    Stanley>Shaw

    Will leave me with a team of

    DEF: Goddard, Gibbs, Deledio, Enright, Adcock, Shaw, Lower (Puopolo, Batchelor, Thompson)
    MID: Swan, Mitchell, Montagna, Bartel, A.Swallow, Harris (Bewick, Hibberd, Iles)
    RUC: Sandilands, Cox (Smith, Keefe)
    FWD: Franklin, Goodes, Johnson, N.Reiwoldt, Dawes, J.Reiwoldt, Darling (Smith, Richardson, Darling)

    anywhere from 20-50k left depending on how shaw scores this week

    will have 12 trades left, with lower, harris and darling left to upgrade which shouldnt be too hard.

    • wow that is a sweet team. only fault is a slight doubt on the js on some of those bench players

    • 12 trades is a bit on the low side but atleast your a better trader than the dud in the proven power article.

    • Solid looking team. I would love to see Chappy and Pendles in there aswell (food for thought) or is one of the 2 Darling’s Chappy?

      • darling will become chapman and after rd 13 harris will become pendles :)

        • well that is your plan, those rookies don’t look too profitable to me

  • Grimes to adcock
    Otten to shaw

    What do u reckon??

  • what do people think of curnow to hodge in a few weeks provided hodgey picks up from last weeks 85? it could almost be a straight swap and perhaps he could work himself into some form as the season goes on, after all he is a proven dt’er and like goddard id expect him to eventually find some form

  • A few guys were standing around at work today talking about what to do with Grimes, one guy listening in to the convo isn’t into DT and his eyes were glazing over. I asked him what he’d be doing with Grimes and he said “I normally handle Grimes with Easy Off Bam”. Farkin funny.

  • G’day All

    I have $187K in the bank, have Grimes to get rid of this week (or will play one short), and want to strengthen my mids.

    Due to poor JS for backline rooks, was thinking of going Grimes to one of the “way down in price” backs:

    ie Grimes – to either Gilbert / Duffield / Mackie (leaning towards Gilbert, who looked better this week vs Carlton)

    then Swallow – Pendles

    Gilbert, Duffield and Mackie are all down $70,000+ from the start of the year, and they are all now around the $290K mark.

    Just wondered who people would pick out of these three, and your thoughts on getting one of them???

    • It is tempting. Seems all those aforemeantioned players are victoms of the forward press tactic dominating Season 2011. No more cheap one-two kicks out of the backline to land the next one around the centre- forward area. now teams are forced to kick long around the half back area, which is benifiting midfielders and small backs, but not so much the mid to key pos backs.

      Maybe those three will regain their scoring prowess, I being a Duffman owner hope so. But maybe not.

      If I had to pick one out of the three though id go Mackie. geelong should finish high on the ladder this year.

  • Is anyone keeping curnow? I’m considering it

    • Not me. Instant upgrade for mine

    • Keeping him on the bench for this week, was gonna be there anyway. Hopefully in a week there’ll be better estimates on his return, and can make the decision. 3-4 he’ll probably stay, any more he’ll be upgraded.

  • Great write up as usual mate.

    Would really appreciate if you guys could check out my mate’s blog on this topic and see how good is.

    http://www.thisisafl.com/blog/2011/05/rookie-talk-8/

    Cheers.