Housn v The House: Round 6

As promised somewhere throughout the comments during the last ridiculously long round, I wanted to shake things up a little bit with this segment. It’s all well and good to land a $400+ multi once a month or so, but it just doesn’t make for good reading when we lose every other bet in between.

That said, just like in DT, you’ve gotta back in your chosen players. We know that more often than not, Petrie will outscore Mayne. Most here would agree that Ablett will beat Rischitelli nine times out of ten and when Goodes can’t top 80 points, something’s gone wrong. We haven’t laid many ‘bad’ bets so far… but the DT Gods have not been kind, either.

So! Let’s spread the risk a little. What we’ll do now is lay a series of 2-leg multis for $10 each; most of these will be around $7-8 odds. Land one out of five and we make a little pocket money – two or more and we’re really talking. And just because I can’t help myself, and because we have $60 to burn this week from the original post, we’ll also put five of the best options into a massive last-gasp multi and see what happens.

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Getting down to business, here’s what I like on offer this week…

Cox ($2.60) to beat Priddis and Sylvia, into
Grimes ($2.80) to beat Embley and Moloney
Total odds: $7.28

Cox will be a popular VC option this week. While Priddis has the same three-game average against Melbourne as Cox does (102, give or take a point), that was boosted by 154 in a single match which nearly doubled his usual output. Sylvia doesn’t usually score too well against the Eagles (right, Calvin?) so this one may be determined by which Priddis rocks up to play. In the second leg, Grimes has played against West Coast three times for a return of 112, 109, 143. Enough said, lock and load.

Second Bet:

Goodes ($2.75) to beat Judd and Jack, into
Redden ($2.75) to beat Rockliff and Martin
Total odds: $7.56

Goodes has scored 116+ in two of his last three against the Blues, with the other score being 37 where he completely went missing and god knows what happened there. All three of the young guns in the second leg have been on fire recently, but I’m backing Redden to outperform the other two this week. Richmond’s best tagger is out and in his only game against the Tigers, Redden knocked out a lazy 117.

Third Bet:

Dal Santo ($2.90) to beat Goddard and Thompson, into
Gram ($2.50) to beat Van Berlo and Fisher
Total odds: $7.25

Crazy? Like a fox. Nicky-Dal’s last three against the Crows read 121, 117, 120. Thompson has always struggled against the Saints and while Goddard is short-priced for a reason, this might just pay off. Gram seems to have a day out whenever he plays Adelaide as well, averaging 118 against them over his last three games.

Fourth Bet:

Watson ($2.60) to beat Ablett and Stanton, into
Swan ($1.85) to beat Pendlebury and Cross
Total odds: $4.81

Essendon haven’t played against the Gold Coast before, so we’ve only got half of our usual assessments available, being current form this season. Watson is still in Brownlow form and while the other two guns can do anything, he’s given us no reason to bet against him so far this year. Not sure why Sportingbet didn’t put Boyd into that second leg, but no worries. We all know what Swan can do and he seems to do it particularly well against the dogs.

Fifth Bet:

Thomas ($2.70) to beat Ball and Griffen, into
Murphy ($2.90) to beat Beams and Sidebottom
Total odds: $7.83

Thomas has been a little Katy Perry this year but it’s damn impressive when he gets it right. GWS are really going to like having him lead them out next year. Form line is pretty consistent with Ball but has a much higher ceiling so Thomas gets the money for mine as Griffen always seems to struggle against the Pies. Over the last two years, Murphy has gone 111, 126, 104 to average 114 against Collingwood – seriously! – and with reasonable form this year, should get the job done over two very inconsistent Magpies.

For the final five-leg multi, I’m taking suggestions on where to place some coin tomorrow afternoon. Leave me a comment below with your top three options from what I’ve presented above (and I’m a stubborn bastard, so don’t bother telling me that I should have gone Rockliff over Redden!) and we’ll see if some teamwork can’t buy us a little luck.

Good luck with your own betting, too, and don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.

Have fun
-Housn.

51 Comments

  • Wish I was a DT bookie… money for old rope.

  • Fellow betters, I believe bet of the round is the lions $3.15 to beat the tigers. Yes I am a bias lions fan, however if any of you have followed the lions closely this season, you would have seen they have played with more aggression and positive belief than in a long time. We’ve had 3 narrow losses to freo, melb and last week st kilda. I hardly hold the tigers in the same. Big Dan Merrett is in career best form and can hopefully keep riewoldt quiet. There is also the likely injection of Drummond and Matty Maguire..

    I’ve put $100 free bet on this and thinking about putting more on it.

    Thoughts?

    • How do i get the $100 free bet?

    • Def think richmond are way under the odds at 1.36!! Brisbane have been on the cusp the last few weeks and it looks a good value bet. West Coast have to be the lock of the round though. Melbourne are in no form at all and only good teams win in the west

      • melbourne haven’t won in the west since 2004.

        • I concur, that’s where my free $100 dollar went. Didnt realise Lecras was back either till after i laid the bet. Had a shocking run so far following this thread, but hoping this week can get me back on track.

    • As a Richmond member, I hate to say it but you might be right there. I’m looking at Richmond <40 but waiting til the odds improve… people will get on Brisbane (and rightly so) at the current odds. Already, the Tigers are out to 1.42 and the Lions into 2.85 since you posted last night. Won't be at all surprised if the odds move to about 1.80 v 2.00 by late afternoon.

      West Coast is another one that I like, got on that one at <40 again. I'm also on Sydney <25 against Carlton; should be a close game but up north, fairly confident in the Swans getting the job done.

  • moloney is in pretty good form at the moment, and grimes is struggling to get free, dunno about the second leg!

    • Fair point. Moloney can be a bit of a flat-track bully (is playing WCE a flat-track for Melbourne this year…?) and Embley is always a wildcard as well.

      Grimes hasn’t had the best start to the year but after building some confidence with a 99 against GCS and then a rest over the bye, he’s due for a return to form. His record against the Eagles is pretty impressive so hopefully he can back that up again tonight.

  • Embley averages 112 in his last 5 against the demons and his form this year compared to grimes is far better.
    Embley 117.5 to Grimes 88
    Gonna back Embley in this one

  • Would love to hear from any punters who back the Suns this week BEFORE the result is known. Seems like every man and his dog won $500 on them last week AFTER they’d won ;)

  • Loving the bets this week, I put $10 on what you havewith tonights bet – so lets pray. I quick like all your bets and will possibly do very similar to what you have.
    For themulti, im thinking i’ll do a 4 leg.
    Gram ($2.50) to beat Van Berlo and Fisher
    Watson ($2.60) to beat Ablett and Stanton,
    Swan ($1.85) to beat Pendlebury and Cross
    Thomas ($2.70) to beat Ball and Griffen,
    Paying 32.47$

    • Very nice, mate. It’s looking pretty close at 3/4 time, just behind on both by the look of it so a big fourth quarter to come.

      Good luck with your 4-step multi, too!

    • Fivestar – I like that multi!

      I just put $10 on that and $20 on just Gram and Swan (paying $4.67 I think)

      Let the wins finally start rolling :)

  • hows the bet holding up? Not sure where to go to find live scores of players not on my dt :/

  • Cha-ching!

    Cox 121 outscored Priddis 103 and Sylvia 90
    Grimes 86 outscored Embley 81 and Moloney 75

    • YES!!! wow that was crazy, thank god priddis and embley slowed down!
      Theres a nice $58.40 to start the week off!

    • woo, thanks for the tip mate. I’ll get on your other bets too I think. I hope you’ve got your house on your team losing saturday night ;)

      • Haha, no, can never bet against my team. It usually costs me a good 16 tips a year and god knows how much money. I try to stay away from Tigers games, hard to make a solid call without emotion getting in the way. I still think that they’ll win tonight but I can never be sure if that’s my head or my heart talking.

  • Was also on the Grimes and Cox combo… Nice pick up housn… Keep em coming!

    • Cheers mate. Nice change, having a win from this thread. Hopefully I can keep up some form now!

  • I’m not cut out for this DT betting…. went $20 on the Cox into Grimes (lol) multi and bloody hell it was a painful last quarter. Grimes sitting on 82 and Embley on 81 for what seemed like forever, and Maloney only a +6 behind too. I was screaming at the tele.

    When I first looked at the multis for this game I thought Embley was the way to go too and almost chucked him instead of Grimes…. but then I remembered that despite his form Embley is a gigantic spud and would definitely let me down so stuck with Grimes.

    $150ish return not bad at all. I now have $10 on all 4 of the remaining 2-way multis above just for the hell of it, and another 4-way multi at about $41 or something. Hopefully my lucky week.

    • I hear you mate, what a final quarter hey?! This is half the reason why I love DT betting, adds a whole new dimension to a game that was over by quarter-time.

  • Just had a multi on priddis and grimes to each win their groups for disposals paying about 19 bucks, only put ten on which is disappointing but 190 back from 10 is nice :)

  • i like harris over howlett and swallow…
    and scotland over bolton and simpson, with the only issue being if bolton decides to go tackle crazy again.

  • Good to see your lower risk options paying of Housn.
    I’ll be sticking to my 4 leg multis hoping to land a big fish.

    Goodes over Judd, Jack
    Deledio over Adcock , Black
    Goddard over Thompson, Dal Santo
    Stanton over Watson, Ablett
    $10 @ 49.16

    • I’m dropping a 5-leg multi this afternoon. Tentatively looking at Redden, Gram, Swan, Thomas, Murphy but keen to hear if anyone thinks that there might be better options for it. The little wins are nice and keep the account ticking over, but the prospect of landing a big fish with 50+ odds is too tempting to ignore!

      I like your Deledio bet… nearly included that one too but it’s hard to run against Adcock’s form, even as a Tigers supporter. And just quietly and without any ill-will towards you at all, I hope that you’ve messed up royally with the Goddard and Stanton bets ;)

      • Maybe I should do a side bet Thompson into Ablett.

        Went Goddard cause I think the other two will get the Reilly and Jones tag.
        Also thought the same with Adcock lack of key forwards to keep him honest but I have Lids in my team and not Ads so don’t want a conflict when watching the game :)
        And Stants just because a low pressure game is what he laps up.

  • hey guys i just deposited 100 dollars into sportsbet account, how long does it take for the account to register the deposit?? i wanna place sum bets dammit lol

    • Credit card and the Poli system are immediate. Direct transfer and Bpay probably won’t process until Monday, and no idea about Paypal or that Moneybookers thing.

  • so Housn, whats your final choice for a 4-5 leg multi??

    • Was gunning to have Murphy included, but can’t now that Beams had himself dropped.

      So! I’ve just locked $10 into:

      Redden ($2.75) to beat Rockliff and Martin
      Dal Santo ($2.90) to beat Goddard and Thompson
      Gram ($2.50) to beat Van Berlo and Fisher
      Watson ($2.60) to beat Ablett and Stanton
      Thomas ($2.70) to beat Ball and Griffen

      For odds of $139.96

      The second leg with Dal Santo is the biggest risk there, along with Stanton slutting it up against GCS. Worth a shot, hey? Here’s to a profitable weekend!

      • nice one, I put $2 on this and then also put a $1 on the same bet however with Goddard instead of dal santo. Still works out better than removing that leg all together.

        Looking forward to cashing in this weekend

  • Damn. Beams dropped for Collingwood renders the second leg of bet #5 void. Anyone who followed me onto that one is now looking at a single bet for Thomas at $2.70 instead.

    (Unless, of course, Beams is a late inclusion).

  • Second multi has fallen over, Goodes barely touched the ball tonight, completely went missing. Bastard.

  • Just finalised my bets for this week, had a similar approach to you housn and used mostly the same players.
    1st Bet – $10, Total Odds, $6.875
    Gram (2.50) to beat Van Berlo and Fisher
    Redden (2.75) to beat Rockcliff and Martin

    2nd Bet – $10, Total Odds, $7.02
    Thomas (2.70) to beat Ball and Griffen
    Deledio (2.60) to beat Adcock and Black

    3rd Bet – $10, Total Odds, $7.54
    Dal Santo (2.90) to beat Goddard and Thompson
    Watson (2.60) to beat Ablett and Stanton

    4th Bet – $10, Total Odds $12.025
    Swan (1.85) to beat Pendlebury and Cross
    Gram (2.50) to beat Van Berlo and Fisher
    Watson (2.60) to beat Ablett and Stanton

    5th Bet – $10, Total Odds $36.884
    Swan (1.85) to beat Pendlebury and Cross
    Redden (2.75) to beat Rockcliff and Martin
    Gram (2.50) to beat Van Berlo and Fisher
    Dal Santo (2.90) to beat Goddard and Thompson

    If I can win atleast 2 of these i’d be stoked, if gram and redden can win tonight, i’ll be in a great position. Thanks for all the advice Housn, would of had no hope otherwise. Best of luck to everyone!

  • dustin martins gonna have to get injured at this rate for our bets to come through…. CARN THE LIONS!!

    • Having a blinder start to the game, hey? Still, early days yet.

      And GO TIGERS!!

      • Is Redden a gun or what?! One point in it, what a game. Oh, and a great win by Richmond :)

        Dal Santo is holding up his end of the bargain well. Just need Gram to wake the hell up and overtake Van Berlo…

        • Oh, nevermind. Someone took two points off Redden and he lost to Rocky by one. Massive multi out regardless of Gram.

          But, still happy with my Tigers and the money I had on them as well.

          • Looking like another average weekend! Gram killed me, really hoping jobe can beat ablett and stanton otherwise, i’ll be back to where i was at the beginning of the week and all of what grimes and cox won for me will disapear.
            How much you win on the tigers housn?

          • Only dropped $100 on Richmond, so just a little $45 profit. The odds didn’t move as much as I expected on that one, but hey, a win’s a win.

            Real shame about Gram. Thought he was the surest thing of the lot this week. I’ve still got Watson & Swan, and Thomas. Hopefully a little more coin to make this weekend yet.

  • 3/4 Time and Watson on 75, Stanton on 83 – Stanton will slut it up this quarter aswell, gotta hope Watson can kick some goals