Dream Team Stock Market – R4

So BHP shares have dropped -$0.27 today, no big deal. The Aussie dollar has reached an all time high of $1.05, pat yourself on the back! What’s this.. Dane Swan is under $500k! REALLY?! (Don’t hold your breath) The Dream Team Stock Market has arrived, and hopefully I can help you, cash in the stocks at their peak or better still, snag a bargain!

Each week I will put in a simple format, important players who are likely to drop or gain a significant amount in value.  I will inform you who and when certain players are likely to peak and who is going to be at a bargain basement price. For the newer players to the game of DT here is a simple guide to getting the most out of your money/team.

  1. If you have picked a premium player, the general rule is to back him in! I won’t be offering any tips to trading out premiums as I am against it. You picked him for a reason, trading him out and losing money is only going to count against you at the end of the year.
  2. Whether we like to think it, rookies are the back bone of our teams. They will make or break us. We want these champions to obviously score as many points as possible so they gain in value so we can eventually turn them in to a premium player we can keep. Play smart with them and don’t jump on or off too early.
  3. Mid priced players, are really of personal opinion. Ideally they score like a premium, go up in price and bang, we turn them into a true and reliable premium. Or if we picked one that hasn’t gone accordingly to plan, we can get them out early so they don’t cost us too much money. Even cashing them in to a rookie that looks the goods and is about to gain in value is an option that is pretty handy, if played well.
  4. Don’t listen to Dr. Dream Team (PhD Bullshit). I don’t see this kind of info on his page? That’s because at the end of the day, he is only playing with, I mean for, himself.
  5. Your the master of your own team, if you have a question, ask any fellow DT’er for an opinion. But it’s your team, your the coach, you put the C on your Captain, you click the T on that player who is being shipped out, no-one else.

Now my figures are compiled from various sources and are estimates only. If I had a crystal ball, I’d be keeping lots of secrets and winning that car! But hopefully I can guide/steer/push people in the right direction if they need it or help you back your own. There are so many good dream teamers these days its awesome. So let’s get started…

Stocks plummenting…

Jack Riewoldt – $310,300 ( $37,200) Jack put together a solid 103 in Round 1, to sadly only muster up enough time on the ground to score 48 in the past two rounds. Has a whooping B/E of 189 this week vs Collingwood, where there is every possibility Jack will take his boots off and hurl it into the Magpie faithful. Will come good soon, or someone will be killed. If you have him, there’s no point in trading him, ride the –$46,300 he will drop this week.

  • Get on board tip: Round 6 v Brisbane for $250,000. He sinks to this price, I’m landing him.

Graham Johncock – $359,100 ($0) If money making’s your game, then keeping Johncock is insane. Set to plummet around -$47,000 this week with a B/E of 184. Averaging 44 (36 and a 52) after 2 games is pathetic. Plays Port this week where he averages 70. Will drop lower and lower while these scores are in his rolling average. Jump off, this ship is sinking.

  • Get on board tip: Round 7 vs Melbourne for $295,000. Only if he begins to show promise.

Greg Broughton – $342,100 ( $28,900) Nearly 24,000 people have this jet in their teams and were expecting him to step up another notch in his 3rd year. 79, 61 & 56 is nothing to get excited about. Has a breakeven of 145 this week vs North Melbourne where he has played them once for a 99. Hard to gauge if this form is to continue, he has too much talent for it. If you were looking to trade him in soon, he will drop about -$26,000 this week.

  • Get on board tip: Round 7 vs Richmond for $309,000. Straight swap for Lower? Interesting…

Sam Gilbert – $357,800 (↓$29,300)– There are so many things you can say and I am sure Sam has heard them all. 79, 49 & 79 is a snapshot of a player that’s lost his way on a team that’s lost the plot. Looks to have a new role this year and in DT land, it’s not going to be grabbing the headlines.  Has the bye this week and in Round 4 he has a breakeven of 148 vs Brisbane and while it’s not impossible, it’s not far off. Am not convinced we will see the same Sam Gilbert this year. Price will fall $25,000 after his next game if he isn’t dropped to the VFL first.

  • Get on board tip: Round 9 vs Melbourne for $300,000. If Ross Lyon’s plays him like he should, worth it.

Daniel Connors$330,800 (↓$52,700) Where is Benny Cousins when you need him? Come on Daniel! I put faith in you this year to deliver, where is your 2nd half form from last year? 21, 72 & 43 has given me more confidence in the Power Ball. B/E of 136 vs Collingwood this week and lots set to drop another -$20,000 if he doesn’t pull out a big one.

  • Get on board tip: Round 6 vs Brisbane for $300,000.

Joel Selwood – $443,700 ($0) TRADEar alert! If you don’t have Selwood, chances are you will very soon! Thanks to Farren Ray’s hip, Joel only scored 27 in Round 1, (in less than a quarter). Missed Round 2, played last week and humiliated Port for 129. Has a B/E of 180 this week vs Sydney and looks like dropping about -$27,000 in price even with his expected score of 103. For those that don’t have him, he needs a shocker. Or by the time Geelong have their bye (Round 6) his B/E will be back in the blue.

  • Get on board tip: Next week, but he will miss Round 6, short term dilemma for long term gain.

Alan Didak $384,500 (↓$26,600) I called it early. Didak won’t come good till after Collingwood’s bye. I may have only said this to about 5 people, but still, I called it. After an off-season operation on his pec, he needed to find time to realise his arm was actually not going to fly off. 67, 90 & 76 are not premium scores, but I guarantee this form will not continue. Will shed about –$15,000 more this week with a reachable B/E of 125. Wouldn’t even be surprised if Mick Malthouse rests him in Round 6 to give him a 2 week break though.

  • Get on board tip: Round 8 vs Geelong for $380,000.

Brendon Goddard – $438,100 (↓$32,900) Now over 175,000 of us locked Mr Goddard into our teams pretty much straight after we locked Swan in, for a good reason, he is a bloody machine. DPP might I add. Not having the best of starts this year, (96, 72 & 92) but nearly every Saint is on that boat. For the lucky one’s that were looking to upgrade to him, that ship is arriving sooner than expected. Has the bye this week, and will come out all guns blazing in Round 5, he just has too. But will drop roughly -$25,000 in the meantime.

  • Get on board tip: Round 7/8 vs Carlton/Hawthorn for $400,000.

Luke Hodge – $428,300 ($0 ) Was always going to be a slower starter this year after an interrupted NAB cup. Once he has fully shaken that off, could be a must have premium upgrade. Round 6 the Hawks have the bye and after that could be an ideal team to pick him up. Scores of 75 & 91 are nothing to be ashamed of, but we all know Hodgey has a lot more to give. Will drop around -$25,000 this week with a B/E of 158. He is playing on his favourite ground though, Aurora Stadium, where dreams are made.

  • Get on board tip: Round 9 vs Sydney for $350,000.

Andrew Carazzo – $329,000 (↓$10,000) Consistently decreasing. That sums up the first 3 rounds for Carrots. Not sure what on earth happened last week, but after 110 & 80 in the first two rounds to scoring only 37 is pretty average. Will shed lots more money while that stays in his rolling average. This week should drop –$22,000 with a B/E of 135. I doubt we will see him score lower all year, could be an interesting upgrade at a bargain price.

  • Get on board tip: Round 10 vs Melbourne for $270,000.

Adam Selwood – $347,400 ( $34,900) Another Selwood, another class act. I truly doubt his poor form will last much longer. Scores of 42, 63 & 82 are on the up, but still pretty crappy. West Coast play Hawthorn in Launceston this week before having the bye in Round 5. Has a B/E of 118, looks like falling -$17,000 in price and averages 66 vs Hawthorn. Could be a unique upgrade target in 4-5 weeks time.

  • Get on board tip: Round 8 vs Fremantle for $310,000.

 

Show me the money!

Tom Liberatore – $158,900 (↑$66,400) He has the bye this week I know, but I just had to mention him first. While he may have already increased in value, that isn’t stopping young Libba from being a good investment if you don’t already have him. 72, 116 & 76 is very solid in a very strong Western Bulldogs midfield. Bulldogs would be mad to drop this young talent from their side. If he has another solid game in Round 5, will go up about $54,000.

  • Current Form Value: Around the $330-340,000.

Edward Curnow – $173,400 (↑$77,700) With scores so far of 107, 91 & 100. He has to be the value pick of the season so far. And more money is still to be made. Has the chance of going up another $53,000 in value this week if he continues this form. Did he fly under your radar like so many others? Has a B/E of -58 this week.

  • Current Form Value: Could easily push $380,000.

Daniel Harris$114,400 ($0) Solid as a rock in the Gold Coast centre with 97 & 62 so far.. The AFL experience and the cool head will be perfect for the young GCS players during the season and at his price, you’d be mad not to already include him in your side. Likely to rise $52,000 this week with a B/E of -72.

  • Current Form Value: About $260,000 at the moment.

Dion Prestia – $128,500 ($0) As Calvin says: “The Little Chapman”. And for good reason too. Banged out a very nice 100 last week (while suffering from “severe cramps”) and as a DPP could be the most traded in player this week. Bewick to Prestia anyone? B/E is -62 this week vs Melbourne where I have a funny feeling he could do just about anything. $48,300 is the expected rise of Little Chappy.

  • Current Form Value: $310,000 is a fair estimate after 2 games.

Zachary Smith $106,400 ($0) – Has got to be my favourite Sun so far. Could be anything one day. 81 & 67 is a great return for your 3rd/4th ruckmen. Job security could not be higher and his talent is endless. Looks like rising $48,500 in coin this week with a B/E of -67. With Josh Fraser nursing his ankle, could have plenty of chances to notch up another decent score vs Melbourne. A must have in your ruck department.

  • Expected peak price: In the vicinity of $280,000.

Shaun McKernan $97,600 ($0) This man’s job security has been more secured you would think with the typical injury crisis the poor old Crows are facing. Scores of 83 & 47 are not super, but he will have the ability to produce higher scores once the Crows midfield realise he is a weapon up forward. B/E of -55 is fantastic and looks sets to go about $38,000 in price, minimum. If you have Batchelor, trading for McKernan might be a great call.

  • Expected peak price: Way too inconsistent to really tell, $220,000 at this stage.

Brodie Smith $108,500 ($0) – Round 1, 14th Pick in last years draft, Brodie looks set for a big year with the Crows. Is apparently a big DT lover from what I have heard, which doesn’t help any of us who have him in our teams. Brodie has scored a 50 and a 77, and looks the goods. As my fiance is a mad Crows supporter, I manage to watch most Crows games and from what I’ve seen, could be a player worth keeping down back (no pressure Brodie)! Has a B/E of -44 this week and if he can pump out the projected 64, will rise about $37,000 in cash.

  • Expected peak price: $250,000, but I want $300,000 out of him, lift Smith!

Shane Savage $144,500 ( $46,900) While Matt Suckling and Liam Shiels are worthy candidates, they didn’t start the year off at under $100k and they aren’t going to be keepers either. 70, 61 & 80 is a good return. A lot more solid than other rookies a lot of us have. Could jump another $35,000 this week with a good game in Launceston. Has a B/E of -30 vs West Coast. Money to be made, with a healthy $35,000 increase on the cards this week.

  • Expected peak price: $240-$250,000 would be a happy return.

Dyson Heppell – $177,900 (↑$45,400) Mr Consistent. More is yet to come from Dyson. Looks the goods for the Bombers who are flying at the moment. Scores of 76, 80 & 77 and with a B/E of -21, you’d have to be happy with that. Expected to go up another $33,700 this week. Round 10 might be ripe for cashing in. Could also be worth keeping. Decisions, decisions.

  • Expected peak price: $300,000 range is the benchmark.

Jed Adcock $293,100 (↑$30,600) Jed, I am sorry. I had a decision to make last week and I didn’t take it. Everitt –> Adcock or Conca –> Curnow. I took the latter. It was a 50/50 decision and I still think it was. In case you missed it, Jed dumped a lazy 123 on Melbourne to back up his 112 vs the Bulldogs (Round 1 53 was just a teaser). He has the bye this week but Round 5 plays St Kilda with a B/E of -9 and another $30,000 jump in price. Keep an eye out!

  • Expected peak price: $320,000 but more in the $380,000 range.

Dean Cox – $393,200 ($41,400) I just had to add this bloke in. All you doubters out there, doubt no more.  Move over Sandilands, Big Bird is making his way back to the top of the ruck stocks! Nic Natawho? 142, 118 & 127 is a big effort. Plays Hawthorn at Aurora this week and then will sit out with the bye. B/E of 58 should see Cox make another $20,000, I think another big one is coming, he loves Launceston (well, playing there anyways).

  • Expected peak price: $420,000 could be a base price soon.

Well I hope my first edition of Dream Team Stock Market has given you some juicy numbers to go over. Not every player can get a mention and I know there are a few who just missed out. But, this is my list and I hope you enjoy. All the best for the first week of the “multi-bye”. Don’t forget to bench those Lions/Saints and Bulldogs.

Find me on Twitter too! @Aki_DT

136 Comments

  • I’ll post it again once there is a spot for round four teams, but Jolly is out.

    http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/111639/default.aspx

    Regarding this article, I loved it and look forward to seeing more evaluations over the year.

    • Thank you again to the person who convinced me before rnd 1 lockout to so SandyCox, rather than Sandy Jolly.

  • Hey guys.
    I realised that Otten is a dud.
    What do you think of Otten to Brodie Smith?
    and maybe Bewick to Prestia?
    Thanks

    • Or should I wait for Otten to rise at least a little bit more?

      • TBH if you already have Curnow, Libba, Tapscott I reckon its a GREAT move.
        I am considering Batchelor to Smith and Bewick to Prestia. Cash in on future money making and both are DPP.
        Otten is a tough call though. Because he is SO cheap and his job is secured, I’d be inclined to keep the bloke.
        Is a very talented player and still finding his feet.

  • Cameron Pederson is back incase anyone hasn’t heard.

  • thank you jolly! hello keefe :D make me some $$$$$$$

    • Is Keefe coming in? The article about Jolly quoted Malty as saying Wood would be Jolly’s replacement.

      I have Keefe too though was going to trade him to Smith.

  • Thanks Aki!! That makes putting some players into perspective easy :)

    What are your thoughts on Jesse O’Brien??

    • Lets be honest, I think poor Jesse has been forgotten about. He is averaging 72 and looks pretty safe JS wise.
      If he continues that average, his worth is around the $280,000 mark. Which is pretty good!
      Has the bye this week though, so maybe next week take a look at him?
      I’ll include him for you.

      • Ahh yeah. I keep forgetting about the bye (too concerned for my midfield :P)
        Thanks :D I picked him up on the week before lockout. Can’t remember what I was reshuffling in order to get him though.

  • Hey Guys,

    Im having some concerns about one of my premium backmen, namely Cam Bruce. My main concerns are firstly his consistency to score +75 points and secondly, he was subbed off last week and im worried this may happen more often. Is it worth trading him this week or wait till the start of Round 5?

    At this point of time im thinking of leaving him in for one more week to see if he can muster a respectable score against west coast (“how hard could that be?’). Even if he does score well, his break even is 146 and at the moment he’s only averageing 64 points per week which will still hurt.

    Possible option:
    (Haw) J Gibson
    (BL) J Adcock, P Hanley

    Any Bright ideas?

    • Hang on to him for this week and cross everything you have he hits 100.
      He is a tough one. The less money you shed on Bruce, the better off you’ll be. Cause you got to get rid of him!
      Maybe assess him in Round 7 after the Hawks bye?

  • Great article. Along qith Roy’s Real Estate a great read. Well done

  • Best article by far! I’m going for the league win so trying not to make any trades on multi bye rounds. Except I can see Prestia being a gun for the suns.

    I’ve lost confidence in Foley (early I know) so i’m thinking of trading him out for Prestia this week before his price changes. Free up some cash and i think they’ll end up being similar prices anyway.

    Silly?

  • Monty to Goodes is very tempting (even with Goode’s bye next week), moving goodes into forward line, krakour to mid bench. Can’t see monty matching his average from last year with lenny out and st’s not winning possession counts.

  • Aki, great article mate, just wondering whether you could give me a bit of a tip?
    I buggered up my forward line big time,, and I don’t have franklin, n. riewoldt, higgins or goodes atm, but i do have jack riewoldt and mitch morton.
    Do you think that I should burn a trade and trade out jacky this week for someone like goodes, because his under-performances have been thoroughly pissing me off over the past few weeks :(
    tips would be appreciated!!!!

  • Fantastic article, one of the best on DT Talk

    • Agree great article. Quick question have petrie and bewick in my team now that zac smith has proven himself wondering if i should make some quick cash and get on some scoring potential with a petrie for prestia trade or back petrie’s scoring potential and go bewick prestia trade…thoughts please

      • What about Cameron Bruce ? He is definitely on my radar for a round 8-10 upgrade

  • Great article, will be super helpful. Quick question, should i trade Luke Shuey for Liam Shiels and Collin Sylvia for Cyril Rioli? Thanks for any advice

  • Broughton for Enrjght or H. Shaw

  • what do you guys reckon, keneddy from sydney out and curnow in…. keneddy has a BE of 101

  • Great article mate, team for round 4.

    Gibbs, Grimes, Deledio, Heppell, Duigan, Stanley, Otten (Adcock, Goddard, Lower (E)

    Swan, Pendlebury, Bartel, Curnow, Harris, Swallow (Boyd, Libba, Hibberd)

    Sandilands, Cox (Z. Smith, Derickx)

    Goodes, Buddy, Tapscott, Darling, Krakouer, Prestia, Knights (Higgins, Riewoldt, Matera)

    CASH LEFT: $17, 100

    Cashed in Adcock and Curnow before their price rises again but the problem is that Prestia could be only an emergency on Sunday and Lower may not play.

    Trade tips for this season based on the stock market would be great!!!

    Cheers

    • Lower is only your emergency so shouldn’t worry to much regarding him as sub. As for prestia I think he was among suns best last week and would have thought they would keep in considering many think they are a genuine chance this w/e so should field their strongest side.

  • Great article, but Jamar will dominate young Smith in the ruck from the suns this weekend!

  • Fantasic article…but like the assistant coach its making it easy for everyone to land that bargain. i picked up/identified a few rookies/cheap premiums that i believed would score well only for them to be revealed for all to see.

    • pffffffffffft as if. let me guess….you picked out libba and curnow from the start mmmmmmmm???

      most people watch nab cup too, most people visit the afl site, etc. it ISNT HARD to find info on the top rookies for the coming year.

      most did what you probs did. have a team and changed it based on what rookies were named. ooooooooooooooooh great picks getting duigan, heppell, lower huh? genius….was so hard to spot. oh you only picked tapscott cause he was named and got lucky?

      get over yourself. this site helps everyone……..AND THATS WHY YOUR ON IT TOO.

  • hibberd to b smith??
    or wait till hibberd gets back..

    • with two knees injuries on the weekend hibberd cant be far off a game?

      b smith has been super impressive though…

  • domo doesn’t needs it for da eagles players…. ’cause they need fortune teller/ genie to get a kick or mark in a game……mind you they only play off the continental land mass…..or in tasmania….