Curnow – to buy or not to buy now (The Peterson-Barlow scale)

We’ve all heard of the Duckworth Lewis System, now I’m going to introduce to you the Peterson-Barlow Scale. This was created by my mate ‘the mailman’ after he f*cked up and traded Peterson in last year after a price rise. He created a page that he updated every week to show how much money he had lost and how many points he had lost…..it ended with him stating “bah I don’t care about DT this year…I’m just going to have some fun with it!” (as opposed to it being a drain on your life)

This is the scale he now uses to measure the success of bringing in rookies after their first price rise.

As we know, the standout rookie so far this year in AFL DT has been Carton’s Edward Curnow. Ed scored 107 on debut against weak opposition in Richmond but we all knew he’d be out to make a statement in his first game. He backed that up with a solid 91 against newcomers Gold Coast – but let’s face it, even Daniel Merritt would be expecting those numbers against the suns, and so the jury was still well and truly out. But it is the ton scored against the best team in the land on the biggest stage that made the DT fraternity take notice and seriously consider whether Curnow could go on with it and become the 2011 Barlow.

Buying rookies after their first price rise requires a lot of pride to be swallowed. And speaking of Swallow, if one was to purchase Curnow now, they would be outlaying only $13k more than they did for the Suns number one draft pick. And Ed would already seem to have far greater scoring potential. Although the Suns man would seem to have the edge in job security. But footy clubs don’t tend to drop players in form.

Taking a rookie after his first price rise is fraught with danger and an exercise that can backfire horribly. One only has to cast their mind back to last season when a certain coach (who shall remain unnamed) paid more than base price for a young fellow from Hawthorn named Carl Peterson. At the time, this coach had lost faith in Scott Gumbleton, who, after a promising start, started to ‘spud it up’ and looked cooked at less than 250k. Peterson was brought in for around 150k and some quick cash wash freed. At the time Carl looked the goods. But soon after his inclusion he became about as reliable as the SEN radio signal on your car radio as you drive next to a tram… he lost form and was soon out of the Hawks line up and became fantasy deadwood.

Now last year I was smart enough to take Barlow from the start. Many didn’t. But those that traded him in after what was probably the single biggest one-week price rise in DT history still made the right move. Barlow went on to put many seasoned premiums in the shade. The greatest cash cow in history or a genuine premium keeper tragically cut down – which ever way you look at it – Barlow was special.

Ok then, so back to the ‘Peterson-Barlow Scale.’ If we consider Peterson a zero and Barlow a 10, where will Curnow rate? That’s the decision that many a dreamteamer will face this week. The clock’s ticking so get out your crystal ball and determine where Curnow sits on the Peterson-Barlow scale: Anything less than a 7 and its not worth it.

Peterson…….1…….2…….3…….4…….5…….6…….7…….8…….9……..Barlow.

If you decide that Curnow’s the real deal, the next step is to decide who’s going to make way to allow for his inclusion…

The use of dual position means I have no less than 15 players who could potentially step aside for the Carlton youngster. Let’s look at them in more detail. I’ll break them down into groups:

The Untouchables – don’t even think about it..

  • Swan
  • Boyd
  • Gibbs
  • Goddard
  • Goodes

The ‘should be untouchables, but its tempting’ – Why am I thinking about this? Stanton anyone?

  • Deledio
  • Didak

The Rookies – Will it end up sideways?

  • Swallow
  • Harris
  • Prestia
  • Heppell
  • Krakouer
  • Liberatore

The midpricers scoring less than Ed – Would seem to be the most logical choice. Free up cash plus gain a better scorer.

  • Duncan
  • Ward
  • Palmer

It was easy to pick up Barlow last year from the start; he had scored 2 tons in the pre season and made us all take notice. Curnow was different; he didn’t even blink on the radar in preseason but has started with a bang. If you missed him last week will you swallow your pride and take him now after a price rise? Will it be the right move? Where does he rate on the Peterson-Barlow scale?

223 Comments

  • I’m going Hibberd -> Curnow this week after going Foley -> Libba & Connors -> Enright last week.

  • Is anybody else thinking about going Krakouer to Curnow? The only other options for me are to do nothing, trade out R. Palmer, Bewick, Buckley or Harris. Harris and Palmer are too good in my opinion. Once Palmer starts playing full games (like last week, he’s gonna be 85+) Bewick and Buckley are cash cows and have good JS. Seems like little gained, but Krakeour keeps getting subbed.

    Thoughts?

  • What do people think about Suckling? He’s played three games for an average of 93.33 but that includes the massive 141 against Melbourne. He’s only played 6 game in his career but he’s been on the Hawks list for 5 preseasons now, so might finally be his time to shine. Considering a downgrade of Broughton to Suckling, then upgrading Gaff to Curnow, seeing as Gaff is going to be the sub every damn week.

    • So you are using two trades to get two rookies, and then you will use a minimum of two more trades to make those players two premiums, when you had a premium to begin with?
      That’s essentially four trades for one player. Unless you are bringing Curnow in to play for the rest of the season and sit on your bench when he isn’t playing you are burning far too many trades. IMO.

  • Stupid article, u had your chance last week, to trade up to a rookie is rediculous. You should be trading up to guns like ablett and montags, not wasting trades on squeezing in a rookie.

    Move on!

    • So it would have been stupid to trade in Pods or Barlow after their third game? You’d still be making a truckload of cash… and as with Barlow, a keeper – damn you Rhys Palmer.

      But, it would have been *best* to have traded Cunrow last weel (or better still, started with him), but at $170K for a player with a ceiling like him and potential for a 90+ average.

  • Riseup, you are a stupid article. crawl back under your rock.

    CrimsonRavenmeister, I traded in Suckling last week and think he will be consistently getting 80-90 at the price and with good JS. You should get in Curnow as everyone else seems to have him now.

  • curnow is looking good so far! very glad i picked up libba from the start otherwise i would have brought him in before round 3 instead of curnow

  • I have a few guns letting me down at the moment eg. Green, Broughton & Connors but I think I’ll stand by Green and Broughton (plus their multibye’s benefit me). But Connors is really giving me the shits!

    I’m bringing in Curnow this week for Irons but I need $35k to make it happen.
    What do guys reckon of Connors – Adcock/Suckling?

    • Suckling to inconsistent IMO go adcock has high ceiling but is injury prone. Safest bet might be suban?

  • Just wondering, should I go Green to Fyfe and then Irons to Curnow?

    Figured it is a pertinent question, had to be asked.

    • Only if you are planning on keeping one, or both of them, for the rest of the season; injuries and general soreness included.

  • I jumped on Curnow prior to his price rise by trading out Pittard prior to round 3 – burnt a trade but looks to be worth it.

  • Question for the Crows fans out there:

    How are Brodie Smith and Shaun McKernan going?

    It seems that Crows have sufficient injuries for Brodie to keep his spot for a while. What is likely to happen in backline now that Davis is out for a while – perhaps Otten to CHB? Was playing all the talls that much of a disaster v Freo that McKernan will miss out?

    • If anything, expect Otten to continue to play off the flank, and McKernan will likely be shifted to play a defensive role. Think Roughead. Campbell Brown. Etc. A switch hitter who can go backwards and forwards. Good news for his Job Security, but hopefully Craig finds a balance for him, as a Roughead/Brown DT output isn’t as good.

  • coaches seem to be rotating the subs around,Kraks had his shot, Bewicks played a couple and had one…thinking maybe Curnow might be coming up for his shot. just trying to work out who to trade for him :(

  • Just clicked Broughton to see what team Fremantle up against in round 4,Aand it seems alot of information has now been restricted to people who payed for assistant coach…

    Wouldnt think we would have to pay to see something as simple as upcomming opponents when we can just check the AFL website…

    • You don’t have to pay. Like you said, if you want to do it the easy way, and have had someone else gather all the information for you, then you pay. If you are happy doing it the traditional way (such as before the assistant coach option) you have to do the research yourself.
      As they say, time is money.

      • Yeah agreee with you 100%

        Thinking im going to pick it up next week just for the pure conveniency factor.

        • I noticed that as well 50lions, i personally dont like it at all, I understand paying for assistant coach but now we need to pay for things we used to have before. (should probaby put this in the knee jerk section as this is my whinge)

      • Last year you could see the upcoming opponents without having to pay so its not like its a new option.

    • Yeah it’s extremley anoying considering it was all there two days ago…

  • Considering Boak to Curnow which will allow me to make the trade Krakouer to Rioli. Thoughts?

    • Boak will come good. Average 100 last year and port played no better.try get curnow in elsewhere. Same as boak kraks has potential and shown he can score big when not subbed. Saying that rioli in for a monster year!

    • I think Boak will slap alot of people across the face who trade him out over the next 3 rounds. His scores have not been outstanding so far but not terrible either, keeping in mind he had to play the pies and the cats away so far. He only dropped $8,000, which is nothing considering people think he has been terrible. His next three include the crows at home, gold coast and north, much different opponents to what he has faced so far. For me I’ll be keeping him the next 3 to see how he goes, if not then I would consider the trade.

      • my thoughts exactly matty….. he’s played bloody coll away who are just too good, and then geel at cat park! there’s no chance he was gunna do well there either, or any port player for that matter, i’m keeping him cos i think he’ll be a gun from now on. im a crows fan so im hoping he doesnt go too well this week, or maybe he can ton up in a losing side.

        why trade him out when he’s only going to get better, besides, hes still ben top scoring in the port side to date anyways. have some faith man

  • Hey Guys,

    My current midfield for the upcoming round looks like this:

    Swan, Bartel, Curnow, Shuey, Krakouer, Harris (Boyd, Bewick, Swallow)

    Iv already used 2 trades and got $ 152,600 in the kitty and feel as though I need to upgrade sum1 in my mids, with Shuey being the best candidate.

    With Selwood set to drop in value over the next 2 rounds (heres hopes), and with his bye in round 6, this means he will be ideal to bring in for round 7, especially coz it gives me time to fatten up a cash cow like bewick and cull him.

    So with that in mind, who should I bring into the midfield that wont be sitting out in the byes for next few rounds, considering I am going for overall win?

    I was thinking of Jobe Watson, as he is having a cracking start to the year but if i remember correctly is handball happy and isnt consistent enough so Im worried his scoring will die down as the season goes on.

    Or should I just sit tight, hope Shuey rips out a good 90 or sumthen and just wait for Selwood in round 7??

    • I reckon you just answered your own question :)

    • Jobe is not handball happy this year. Kick to hb ratio has exploded in the right direction. I’d be getting on him but only if you remember to keep a trade in reserve for the DT GF round when Essendon have the bye.

  • krak… out, when i look for a cash cow 2 48’s in a row even if he get 100 now just doesnt work for me, i would rather a mr jayden pitt averaging over his 2 games (76 last round) and has North melbourne at home. got 2 weeks of boom money and now 123k in my bank account with some1 who has just as much prospect to grow if not more and his job security it pretty good with freo’s injury list growing by the game

    • Freo’s injury list will probably shorten by the game from now on. You’re in on the ground floor with Krak and I’m really not sure why everyone’s keen to jump off on floor 1. Pitt might hit floor 4 sooner than Krak, but Malthouse has spelled out his intentions for Krak (and thereby helped us DT coaches no end) which are to get him match fit then run him through the midfield. He’s a potential 100 scorer every week at that point, and I just don’t see it from Pitt. Think long term with Krak… bailing now seems pointless given his scoring potential.

  • Also have 20 trades left now after the first 4 weeks, leaving 20 trades for 20 rounds which is better then we have ever had before, i think ‘saving’ trades at this stage of the game is useless, if u can make a few good judgment calls in the cash weeks (3, 4 and 5 for those who miss a game and get a bye) you will be chasing tail all year and what happens when u have 6 trades left in the last 3 rounds and 5k in ur back with underperforming players :O

    • For those going for the overall this season, I can see the overall winner being someone who traded guns astutely in the multi-bye rounds to maximise his/her scores to get the edge over the field. Trading out a gun who is on the wane (price-wise) for a POD gun who is in form and will play through the upcoming 3 multi-byes (eg Jobe Watson), might give you those 20-30 points at the end of the season to put you in top spot.

      It’ll take some good planning and big kahones though… Then again, I could be full of sh*t, having never really gone for overall and struggling this year with a team that I f*cked up by making changes in the 5 minutes before the first lockout. :-)

      • hey thanks for the reply chief, lol good thing I had microsoft word open I had to synonym ‘astutely’ to see what it meant hahahaha…. but yeah I agree with you, ud think most ppl will bench there stars and hope for the best from their rookies, and hey it might just pay off (with the save of a trade) but like you said I think if Jobe can pull out another 120 and every1 else for example plays swallow and gets a 70, that puts me up 50 points which can move you alot in rankings. Also, id consider it more of an upgrade rather than a sideways in my case coz shuey is a mid-pricer who has done ok i guess but nothing special, plus he has a bye next week!

        My only concern is do I have the Kahonas to pick Jobe Watson this year, he is in good form but can cartlon bring him back to earth this wkend, this decision could make or break it for me this year coz ill be stuck with him for the rest of the year…hmmm decisions decisions!!

    • If you have underperforming players at the end and no money you trade two out for one low price dude who has come in for a game in a rebuilding side (think marigliani last year was who i got at the end) and one absolute gun. gives you the dollars and the low pricer sits on the bench or plays if you’re desperate

  • IMO I think Krakouer is destined to see more midfield time sooner rather than later (i read in an article sumwhere Malthouse suggesting this) and after he gets a few more 90’s or even cracks the ton will go up in value nicely

    • My sentiments exactly!

      • I don’t see any point in trading guys with high ceilings and potential either. Mick has inferred that he wants to get games into a group of about 30 players (which flies in the face of his outstanding career as a coach) and there’s no doubt that he’ll want to vary their roles from week to week. Beams, Sidebottom, Krakouer, Didak, etc…they can play anywhere forward of midfield and reading between the lines, Mick wants to give opposition coaches headaches in the week leading up to every game they play in the finals.

  • Hey Guys,
    so far this year ive had a shocker, after being in the top 2000 last year i’ve dropped to below the 30,000 rank mark. I need an opinion on 2 things please
    The first is trading ballantyne to someone, (i no getting him was extremely nooby but he’s from my hometown, again i no noob move) im thinking balla to dangerfield, i have 50k in the bank so i can go him to dawes. Which of the two players should i trade for him? or is there another option im missing?

    The second thing is whether I should trade Irons or Buckley, i think their both pretty crap and wont see much game time. If i can get a replacement I will be fine for each bye this year, who should i get? should i blow the money and go curnow?

    • or mabye knights? if i got balla to knights that will allow enough cash to easily go irons to curnow?

    • You could bite the bullet and downgrade Balla to a rook and swap Buckley for Curnow. Irons should get a few more games and make you a little bit of money still, but check the lists this Thurs night before pulling the trigger.

      • This option leaves you with two rookies, instead of a rookie and a premium.
        End of the season, you want all premiums. It looks a bit like “two steps back, one step forward” unless you were to keep Curnow for the season.

        • Problem is that his options are limited with 50k cash and wanting to trade out a mid-pricer. If he’s banking on Curnow being a possible M6, then at least the Balla-to-rook trade gets him cashed up for a 1-trade upgrade of a cash cow in a few weeks time.

  • I have a debacle!!!.

    I am eager (more like dying) to get Curnow into my DT and for me the most likely candidate to trade out is Foley. I don’t want to trade a premium and the only other rooke is Liberatore who I am keeping. What to do??
    Opinions anyone?

    Note: Curnow may be mature age but has never played Essendon before. Foley averages 90 against Collingwood and will most likely start on ball.

    • Dude if you are dying I highly suggest you see a doctor, just not Doctor DT. It sounds like you know what you want to do, but just don’t have the courage to make the call. I’m guessing your post is less about advise, and more at looking at a way to wash your hands of making the decision.

      Option 1. Have faith in your initial pick and stick with Foley. (Do nothing – Regret not doing something)
      Option 2. Follow the crowd and get in Curnow. (Make a trade – Regret making a trade that may backfire)

      Dreamteam seasons are won and lost on making these decisions, don’t leave it up to other people to make it for you.

    • Burn and turn.

      Foley that is into Curnow.

  • Broughton -> Suban

    Irons -> Curnow

    I have all guns/rookies, so no obvious midpricers like Foley to downgrade. Someone has to go for Curnow and I think Broughton will get the chop

  • What do you think about this.

    Irons to Savage (HAW)

    .. THanx

  • ive been thinking and to get a bit of cash before its too late green could get the chop to bring in fyfe. whats everyones thoughts?

    also ive only got 2 rookies who arent scoring points, that doesnt hurt does it?

    • It doesn’t hurt now, but come the end of the year when other coaches are carving up their stock and buying premiums left, right and centre, you’ll be looking at two skinny runts who refused to eat and thinking ‘if only’.

  • @ RLGriffen

    Have u got the info as to where the subs were named from the last round. Cheers

    • There is no more pointless little exercise than this…

      • yeah u might be right, although i’m pretty sure most subs are named on bench, but yeah it probably just clouds the issue

        • Yeah, that’s a fair point. Its worthwhile evaluating the teams to discover if they have a surplus of players in each group (def, mid, for, ruck). eg. If 8 of their 22 are recognised defenders, you can be assured that one of them will be the sub.

        • Most maybe, but not all.
          Stack was named on the feild for the Dogs, and started as the sub…so you never know!

    • I agree that even with the stats to back it up, coaches will change their approaches most weeks. But for those of you who just love stats, and for what it is worth;

      Round 3…
      4 Subs came from playing positions (Bruce, Edwards, Peake and Stack).
      That left 12 subs who came from interchange players.

      Round 2…
      4 Subs came from playing positions (Krakouer, Palmer, Anthony and Jones).
      That left 12 subs who came from interchange players.

      Round 1…
      2 Subs came from playing positions (Lucas & Hitchcock).
      That left 12 subs who came from interchange players.

      Season 2011…
      Over the past three weeks; ten times players have been named to start on the field but later named as subs, and from interchange or emergency positions the sub has been named thirty eight times. Put simply, if they are named on the bench the are four times more likely to end up as a sub.

      Carlton & St Kilda have named starting players as subs twice. The only consistant team relating to the naming of a sub and where they are named to line up is West Coast with Gaff at 4th Interchange/Extended Bench all three times.

      Five players have been named as starting subs multiple times. They are Lovett-Murray, Christensen, Davenport, Peake & Gaff.

      And finally the breakdown…
      Field Players have been named ten times. (21%)
      The First Interchange position has only been used as a sub twice. (4%)
      The Second Interchange position has been used as a sub seven times. (15%)
      The Third Interchange position has been used four times. (8%)
      The remainder, a whopping 52% of all subs (on 25 seperate occassions) subs have come from the fourth interchange position, extended bench, or as an emergency).

  • cya later boak , hellooooo pendles!

  • i really need some help hear guys…last week i chose to pick up libba over curnow for foley clearly a big mistake, so i want to get curnow…my two players up for trade for him are liam anthony and isaac smith and also is sam day going to get a game anytime soon coz i forgot to trade him out before the lockout at the start of the season and im regreting it every time i look at my team.

    • I wouldn’t call a price rise difference of 10K a ‘huge mistake’ by any stretch.

      Perspective people please.

    • Saac Smith will find it tough to break into that Hawthorn midfield any time soon. He’d be your logical out.

      Libba instead of Curnow is a huge mistake from the point of view that Curnow will serve a lot of people as a reliable 5th mid for a while and then as a 6th mid for most of the season if not all of it. The perspective here is not how much cash Curnow will make, rather its how serviceable he will be as a playing midfielder or potentially as a keeper. I have Curnow but not Libba, and while I’m pissed I don’t have Libba, I’m not going to fork out $70k to get him now. The chat on this thread and this very thread itself suggests that most people regard obtaining Curnow as an important call.

      • is it more important to worry about getting curnow in and then ill have all of the best rooks or getting z.smith in the ruck to have more rooks?

        • It just depends on your mids already and your ruck backup.

          • i have a dpp link with j.tippett (ruck) and petrie (fwd) and in my mids in thinking of getting rid of irons to curnow, and to do this i also have to get rid of brad green for nathan fyfe
            what are your thoughts?

          • Don’t worry about Z Smith then. As for the other one, that’s the fun of dt!

  • if i do some rough sums….. curnow has an average of 99.3..if he pumps out a 60 this week(worse case) he goes down to a 87 average. If he pumps out 60 the next week (worst case) he goes down to a 76 average….

    if im not mistaken that will still have him making money (just) (breakeven would be getting close)….. so even if it goes bad..it still goes good!

    any reasons not to jump on? waste of a trase the only one.

    btw..i know its better to be on already but this is for those that arnt.

    • Most rookies accrue points as emergencies and we shit ourselves hoping that they can break the 70 barrier if/when they start in our team, right? You’re spot on adzman, Curnow pumps out the big ones.

    • His job security.
      Yes he is doing well, but a few players to come in will also do well, and may be seen as more important to the team make up.

      Carlton still have: Bower, Hendersen, McLean, Lucas, Ellard, Joseph, Houlihan, O’hAilpin & Kreuzer to come in.

      • Which of them is likely to be in the top four at getting clearances at Carlton?

        • mc clean ….possibly ….could have a claim but his body is made of balsa wood..wont last too long before something else twangs

        • Correction: top three?

          • I like your optimism as I had him from the start of the year and don’t want him to get dropped, but I think you are missing the point I’m making. If Ratten decides he wants Bower & Kreuzer in the squad, two players have to go out. Ratten doesn’t have to drop players from the same position he is replacing them for. If he feels he needs a tall team, Hendersen, O’hAilpin & Kreuzer walk in, three shorter guys walk out. I’m just saying that the fact nine guys are breathing down his neck should be taken into account when deciding how much he is worth.

          • Thanks. I nurtured my optimism by looking at stats. Bower will replace one of the current defenders shortly. Kreuzer will return to the starting line-up when he’s ready. Ratten doesn’t have to replace like for like, but considering that most teams are composed of 7 defenders, 7 mids, 6 forwards and 2 rucks, he probably will I’d say.

  • I reckon Curnow is an 8.5 on the scale ATM.
    pretty darn good but not quite barlow status.. yet.
    another big game this week and he will defs be a 9… maybe even 9.5
    so glad I got him last week :D

  • Should i trade out callan ward now while curnows price is rocketing?

    or should i trade the much-hated foley out? (he might come good)

    or will both players improve greatly (to 300k+)?

    any thoughts

  • Good article mate, like the point about curnow price v d swallows initial price. If u have a problem in ur mids curnow should be who u look at.

    Just wanted to add nobody ‘incorrectly’ got libba over curnow, yet.. libba is looking great for dogs and averaging well. He has earned greater js IMO. If ur rookie is reasonable and solid job security he may end up a better pick if gets dropped soon.

  • i have hayes on the bench and i don’t know what to do with him should i swap him for someone a+ or get curnow