Lemon or Swiss watch?

I was so close! So close I could nearly taste it. I went two whole days without tweaking my team! It was ready, compete. I’d still log in every now and then just to make sure but there was not one thing I could do to make it better. What a feeling… all those amateurs will be flustered on Thursday panic fixing their team while I’ll be kicking back… I’m done.

Then I got the Sunday paper, hmm Grima played for the 2’s… he’s what? He’s pushing for round 1? What does that mean for Tarrant? He’s not locked on!… bugger, better log in… who else is there for the bench… Brodie Smith? Can I trust Craig to play him? … And with that I’m back in the game, scouring forums looking for a nailed on back bench. Atleast my keepers are set.

With lockout less than a week away our teams should be close to completion. The only tweaking should be to the rookies who we will hear new news on each day. We all know keepers and potential keepers are important, they are like buying a car; you are going to have them for a long time so you better buy one that doesn’t break down all the time. With that in mind I have compiled a list of keeper-ish players who people are considering this year whose reliability is doubtful to say the least. Some may trip over on the way out of the shower, some may do a hammy tying a shoe, some are just made of balsa wood or plasticine, but all should be taken with caution.

Lemons:

Chris Knights: in his short AFL career he has had his physio frequent flier points clocking up big time.

  • 2006 – 10 games played
  • 2007 – 21 games played
  • 2008 – 15 games played
  • 2009 – 18 games played
  • 2010 – 5 games played

Stats show since becoming a regular he has missed a total of 41 out of a possible 110 games. Can he turn it around? The stats don’t lie. Choose only if you are using him to make a quick 6-7 weeks’ cash before the muscle strain/s.

Jed Adcock: This guy seems to get some kind of injury in the first quarter all the time, he normally comes back on but the stats never lie.

  • 2005 – 22 games played
  • 2006 – 8 games played
  • 2007 – 22 games played
  • 2008 – 21 games played
  • 2009 – 15 games played
  • 2010 – 9 games played

Stats show while he can put a couple of seasons together he has missed a total of 35 out of a possible 132 which I guess isn’t too bad, might not be such a bad pick after all.

Josh Drummond: seems to be injured more than not which is frustrating because when he plays he kicks the ball more than most, the go to man out of the bombarded lions defence.

  • 2005 – 14 games played
  • 2006 – 7 games played
  • 2007 – 11 games played
  • 2008 – 13 games played
  • 2009 – 19 games played
  • 2010 – 7 games played

I don’t care what the price you can’t carry a player like that! If he was a racehorse you’d bring out the screen…

Brock Mclean: can a change of club make a change of fortunes?

  • 2005 – 19 games played
  • 2006 – 16 games played
  • 2007 – 14 games played
  • 2008 – 14 games played
  • 2009 – 19 games played
  • 2010 – 6 games played

Has yet to play a full season, too much of a risk for me.

Paul chapman: the king of the hammy twang

  • 2005 – 18 games played
  • 2006 – 22 games played
  • 2007 – 16 games played
  • 2008 – 17 games played
  • 2009 – 17 games played
  • 2010 – 21 games played

He rarely plays a full season but in fairness when he plays he dominates. Could be worth the risk, its picks like this that make or break your year.

Jack Grimes – has only been in the system a few years but it doesn’t look great for him

  • 2009 – 11 games played
  • 2010 – 14 games played

If this trend continues he will be the next Drummond, let’s hope he stays fit this year, he will be in a lot of teams.

Colin Sylvia – Another being talked up this year, seems to be injured or suspended a lot

  • 2005 – 16 games played
  • 2006 – 15 games played
  • 2007 – 16 games played
  • 2008 – 18 games played
  • 2009 – 17 games played
  • 2010 – 15 games played

Has not strung one full season together, can you trust him to start now? You need all your premiums firing EVERY week. As well as injuries there should also be a no  d*ckheads policy, those who love the tribunal can’t be considered either.

Shaun Higgins – No doubts on the skill of the guy but can his body take the rigours? The next edition of operation by Milton Bradley may have Shaun Higgins in the board with a tennis elbow needing to be removed by the tweezer.

  • 2007 – 20 games played
  • 2008 – 4 games played
  • 2009 – 17 games played
  • 2010 – 16 games played

Yet to string a full year together, have to take on trust. Which by the way I will be doing.

So all of these players are being strongly considered by some but just think while they are sitting on your bench gathering dust or burning sideways trades another team’s premium will be racking up the points, taking their team average up past yours….. Which brings me to the Swiss watches, these guys won’t miss a game even if they have a limb half hanging off, they may not score as much as a super-premium but by years end it will add up.

Swiss watches:

Adam Goodes: has missed 3 games in 10 years, what a freak!

Kane Cornes: has not missed a game in 7 years, is he a robot?

David Mundy: missed 2 games in 5 years, durable as they come.

Boyd, Montagna and Cross fit into the list of Swiss watches also.

So who to choose? The injury prone star who if things go well will propel you into the top tier of the competition or the durable grinder who will pump out the same score every week for 24 weeks? We all have our favourite Mr Dependables, who’s yours?

40 Comments

  • Another fine article from the DT community! Good stuff, keep it coming!

  • Swan is definately a swiss watch, one game missed in 3 seasons, yeah!

  • That gave me some help!!!

  • Knights was injured at the beginning of last season and played too early and re-injured himself. He’s had a full pre-season so LESS risk than this time last year. Huge hype on Martin in Adelaide and pretty confident he’ll play. An outstanding candidate at $280K

    Chappie – the Cats are going to nurse him through games like they did last year. I like Cats player this year without GAJ – they should get more possessions.

    I am seriously considering Cornes this year given that Port has its first bye around Rd11

    The other one to consider is Newman

    • Chappy is an ‘in’ for me. He’ll rack up the tons (and more) until he breaks down, and when he does, you’ll be able to do a straight swap for the next best primo fwd and have change left over in your kitty. Just hope he doesn’t twang anything in the early rounds. :)

      • Precisely my thoughts. He’s worth a burnt trade risk and because he’s so expensive, worst case is he’ll be the same price as second best.

        IF he misses out round 1 that changes things though

  • Great article guys keep it up. Really starting to reconsider sylvia as he has never played more than 18 games in a season which is a huge concern. I currently have 3 lemons in my team (grimes, sylvia and knights) although i’m not too worried about grimes atm but i know the risks associated with knights. Considering going Pav for sylvia, thoughts?

    • Yeah, I reckon The Pav will have a good start to the season; with a few players out early, I expect him to roam the midfield more often.

      Bluey

  • this has gotten me of sylvia and have switched him to goodes.

    • Sylvia was very unlucky last year, he got smashed in the face by someones elbow and broke his jaw, then developed a clot in his foot, which is super rare in someone his age. Point is though its not his hamstring or groin keeping him out of games and those sorts of injuries are the ones you worry about. e.g. hartlett. Body sounds fit and ready. (probably just guaranteed him to get injured rnd 1, sorry guys)

  • Nice write up.
    Surely Sylvia would have played close to the entire 2010 season if not for the broken jaw…..and oh yeah, the blood clot in his toe!
    I’m hoping this is the year he plays all 22, pleeeeeeeeeez Colin!!!
    And Chrissy Knights, please string atleast 6 games together, averaging 80+, you’ll only have to travel interstate once, in the first 5 rounds with a round 2 bye, c’mon bro- you can do it!!!!

    • At this stage I’ve slotted Yarran in ahead of Knights as he should bank 75-80ppg running off HB, but if Knights is fit and can string 6-8 games together at the 90ppg mark… Hmm. Then again, I’m still debating over Chappy vs StevieJ.

      • but will Yarran play off the back flank? Sure was trialled for nab, but i just dunno!?!?
        Plus I don’t rate Ratten as a coach……was a brilliant centreman, had him in my Dreamteams in the days, “The Australian,” newspaper had their version……..may even be the founders of fantasy footy….???
        Had Chappy, got Sylvia instead, with view to pick up Chappy later.

      • I don’t think anyone tried to tag Yarran either. You can bet they will come tomorrow night and if he gets blanketed OR if he canes it they will keep someone on him all year. Bower is the other Carlton back who runs the ball out and he is injured. Otherwise they get Gibbs, Carrots, Scotland back there (Walker last year for a bunch of games too but he’s a fwd now) so I am worried he will have Jake King on him tomorrow and a bunch of the best defensive fwds thru the year. We know what it does to Heath Shaw, Enright and the rest, Yarran is gonna cop it IMO.

  • Good write up, glad I found this site this year it’s been a big help and making me confident about a big improvement this year
    I have to say i’m one of those people who can’t be bothered to trawl through previous years stats to get this info so thanks for all your hard work adzman!!!!

    Like a lot of others out there in DT world i’m starting to freak out and second guess my hard work in the run home to lockout. Should have rang my ISP and had it disconnected a week ago- My wife would still be speaking to me as well.

    I have tried to stick with a guns n rooks approach and to use the most durable players i can find but i’ve failed miserably! Some of the mid price keepers/cash cows were just too tempting for me so my team now resembles some type of black hole that consumes all sensibility and logic, with a core of pure greed. I fully understand the risks associated with mid pricers but i just can’t bring myself to let them go.

    Oh well, there’s always next year.

    Also, I just can’t figure out what this captain loophole is all about with the two lockouts this week. Can someone fill me in please?

    • Dearest SirJames,

      For the last time, the Partial Lockout refers to……. a partial lockout.

      Dream Team players will be temporarily locked out this Thursday night prior to the Carlton vs. Richmond season opener.

      Subsequently, the Dream Team portal will re-open for trading all Friday; with the exception of Carlton and Richmond players who cannot be touched.

      Partial Lockouts are in place when there is a Thursday night game underway (I think there are two other PL’s during season 2011), giving us a better opportunity on Friday to select players that will indeed line-up over the weekend.

      I trust this clears up the matter for you.

      Kindest regards,

      Bluey

    • Ok well as the first game (Thursday night) is a partial lock-out only Richmond and Carlton players will be locked in for the weekend, all the rest of the teams can still be changed up until Fri’s game (after Thurs game-before start of Fridays) so small time frame to change players. In essence this means you can put the VC- vice capt on a player from Rich/Carlton who you think will score huge- think Gibbs,Murphy,Judd e.t.c. If this VC player fails to deliver and your not happy with their score put the big C on Swanny or whoever is your weekly go to guy as usual. However if your stoked with the VC’s score say a 120 (then doubled) then to lock this score in you have to put a non-playing player (GC) on the field with the big C on him and ensure you have the correct emergency player who is named to play on your bench with the big E. The only risk is if the emergency player who you thought was going to play is a late withdrawal. Worth the risk in my book..what are the chances!! :) hope this helps

    • If you have a Richmond or Carlton player e.g Gibbs, deledio, Judd, whoever, who you think is a good chance of a whopper score, make him vice captain and DON’T select a captain. If you’re happy with the score e.g 120+, leave the captain blank. If you are not happy, wack the c on your first choice after the Carlton Richmond game.

      Scenario

      I choose Gibbs as VC.
      He scores 125 – I’m stoked with that, so I leave my captain unselected

      OR

      Gibbs scores 90
      no thanks, I’ll go with swan so I then pick him as captain. Understand?

      • Next question will be “what if I already have the captain on somebody, how do I remove it?” lol

        • trade your captain and vice captain to someone else, save your team then trade them back in again and save your team will remove the c and vc.

      • Cheers. Thanks for that.

      • foley of VC lol…. thought i’d try something different

  • I went with that policy in 2009… Brent Harvey had 4 years of 22 games up to that point…

    • Haha man, that’s it you have a fair idea of who are injury prone but the most durable could injure themselves at any time

      • obviously anyone can get injured at any time but who is more likley to get injured?

        somebody who has been injured 5 times in 5 years or somebody who has not been injured in 5 years?

        The injury prone player either plays in a way that injures him or has a weak body……. the non injury plagued player may have the opposite.

        surely this has to be taken into account…

  • Didak/Green/Sylvia/Harvey/Johnson…….

    Which one?
    and why?

    • johnson out of those, not as injury prone as sylvia, more consistant than say harvey, has had a better pre-season than didak and i dont rate green

  • This has got me thinking between Trent Cotchin and Nathan Foley, Foley just coming in off a long period of injuries but looks set for a good year, then there is Cotchin who seems to be relatively injury free, who should i go for?

    Also with either Liam Anthony or Dale Thomas, who and why?

    • i don’t have either, but i’d go foley, as he will probably make you more noey, and thats what you’d get him for, i wouldnt get either of thomas or anthony, anthony hasnt shown he can get the 95 average he got a few games last year, and thomas is just not a good nough premium to be bought without a discount, especially considering he is from the pies where it would be better to have swan or pendles, i’d go for a rookie for the price off thomas you could afford more of a premium forward

    • trent cotchin will have a verrrrry big year

  • hey guys thoughts on rioli after a full preseason? worth a spot in the forwards line? even if i already have franklin

  • Good stuff, I reckon Pavlich could be added as a swiss watch.

  • I think Broughton is also a lemon. Is he worth the risk or am I better off going with Connors, keeping in mind I also have Grimes? I’m going for the league win.

    • how bout the no d*head policy with conners…does he still drink?

      • Good call. I still feel a bit nervous about having two injury-prone premiums at the back. Would Duffield be a good option?

  • Petrie = lemon?