Dream Team Strategy: Buying Trades

I have been doing Dream Team for about 6 years now, last year my team was in the top 200 with the rooks/gun strategy, this year I will do the same, although this year i wanted to create an experimental team. The idea for this team was inspired from something I heard Monty from FanFooty say, and that was the because of the new Gold Coast team, the magic number and player price changed will be different this year. IF Swan averages the same as he did last year he will still go down in price!

Like the team posted a few days ago Birdy’s “Lay Down Your Guns” Strategy, my team includes no premium guns, but the difference is it contains the same amount of rookies as a Guns/Rooks Strategy and banks the rest of the money, a bit over 1 million dollars atm.

The idea is to create wealth, Pick only players why you KNOW will raise in value this year. This team wont win you the car, but it aims to be the most expensive team by round 22, and score the most points in round 22. The only risk with this team is that it might not get enough wins during the year to make your league finals. But if it does you surely can’t lose!!

My Theory: 24 trades + 1 million dollars = Lots of UPGRADES!!

People always complain about not having enough trades, and not being able to buy trades/swap points for them. Every team i have seen always uses all their money at the start of the year. Therefore an upgrade consists of downgrading a player banking money, and upgrading a player…. 2 TRADES! With my strategy you already have money banked so to Upgrade you only need 1 Trade!

Math Section:

In the team below you can assume that keepers are:

– Connors, Deledio
– Swan, Anthony
– Sandilands, Cox
– Riewoldt

This means you need 15 BIG upgrades, lets assume a premium you upgrade to is on average 360k (remember your trading in these players after a few bad games).

That means you need: 15 * 360,000 = $5,400,000

The amount of the 15 players I already have and want to upgrade is =
$2,303,500

5,400,000 – 2,303,500 = $3,096,500

Therefore to make my dream team I need $3096500, there is $1,082,300 left from my initial team so I actually only need to create $2,014,200.

All of the 15 players picked will probably go up money, lets assume the go up about 1 million between then (quite reasonable assuming 100k
rises for Otten, Tarrant, Swallow, Bennel, Harris, Gamble, Krakouer and Mzungu)

This means of my bench players i need to generate another Million dollars with 6 trades, leaving 3 for injury for finals. 6 downgrades for 150k each shouldn’t be so hard to find out of the 9 rookies you start with. 15 upgrades, 6 downgrades, 3 for injuries in finals *because ur trading 15 on field players you don’t need as many trades for injuries.

Yes I know saying 6 trades for a million dollars is unreasonable, but keep in mind that there are more than 5 keepers in this team as well, I’m
planning for the worst. Assuming players picked up for 360,000 return to there form and get back up to on average 380,000, by round 22 you will have an on field team around $850000 (remember, this is the value of only you players on the field, not your bench players). I would be interested to know the value of last years winning team at round 22?

Sample Team

Money Left from initial team : $1,082,300

Backs: 1. Connors, D || 2. Deledio, B || 3. Symes, B || 4. Grimes, J || 5. Adcock, J || 6. Otten, A || 7. Tarrant, R

(23. Coad, M, 24. Stanley, D 25. Toy, J)

Mids: 8. Swan, D || 9. Anthony, L || 10. Sidebottom, S || 11. Swallow, D || 12. Bennell, H || 13. Harris, D

(26. Heppell, D, 27. Wallis, M, 28. Callinan, I)

Rucks: 14. Sandilands, A || 15. Cox, D

(29. Smith, Z, 30. Curnow, M)

Forwards: 16. Riewoldt, N || 17. Higgins, S || 18. Zaharakis, D || 19. Knights, C || 20. Gamble, R || 21. Krakouer, A || 22. Mzungu, T

(31. Prestia, D, 32. Richardson, C, 33. Matera, B)

With this strategy you are essentially buying trades, instead of wasting a trade in a downgrade you are choosing a cheaper player and
keeping the money!!

30 Comments

  • It is an interesting theory as you still have strong rucks and some good scoring players. Best of luck!

  • Creating wealth is all well and good, but you won’t achieve much else. The team should be firing by season’s end, but by then you’re likely to have lost too many matches early in the year to make your league finals anyway.

    Could be a good strategy for winning a weekly prize towards the end of the year with a bit of luck, but by then most teams are filled with guns anyway.

  • I tried this theory last year with a throw away fun team. I went for a more extreme guns / rooks strategy with over $1m left in the bank. I ended up winning the league GF, but only by finally scraping into the top 4 by round 22.

    The best part was doing all those single trade upgrades like you had unlimited cash!

    The worst part was the long slow struggle up the ladder after a really slow first 1/2 of the year

    This year it is not a bad “league win” option given the 4 extra trades and all the early multi team byes from rounds 4 to 6

    • As a footnote this team surprisingly did not end up any stronger than “normal” teams by years end.

      I would put this down to dodgy rookie choices needing trading out and also the number of keepers (Waters, Rockcliffe, Barlow etc etc) that allowed normal teams to achieve near perfect teams by the end

      • I also did this last year – made gf in both leagues (quite weak leagues, I don’t think this strategy would come close in one of the dt leagues ) and lost both – crazy bad luck rd 22! I did come 7th one week when team was almost complete. Having a few become keepers – Barlow! also helps the cause. I think the key is to not panick trade, sooo hard to do and pick up players at the right time. Two upgrades each week is a lot of fun! I won’t be doing it this year because I am in some stronger leagues. I think overall I ended up around 4000 after being like 80000 early on… and 400 year before with a mid price strategy.

  • I would have thought the biggest risk in this experiential was being caught with 2 teams and having them thrown out! ;-)

    If your goal is to have the best score in round 24 and that was your only/main goal, there would be one additional thing I would consider and that is which team may be a lock for the finals by then and be resting players! For example, while Swan is an absolute gun, (without looking at the fixture) I would imagine a fair chance the pies are locked in the top two and so might rest him for round 24. Therefore, if you agree with my assumption, you might want to consider not picking him. Of course, this assumes you care nothing for the rest of the season which is probably a failed assumption.

    Also if the rest of the season isn’t the goal, consider entering this team after round 1 or 2. That way you should get the best performed rookies and mid prices at that point! Not a guarntee for success but could give you an added boot along.

    I think you can do well enough out of the mid-price strategy (although, because of the excellent rookies this year, am finding it hard to take the risk on them) with taking in money into the year. Took about 220k into the year last year with the Midprice stradegy and although a couple of bad trades early, still came home strong with trades in the bank and finished top 400.

    • I think the aim is to be the most expensive team. i havnt really thought about it too much. I ddnt write that in my intiial write up but yes the team would definately be posted after round 2, or even round 3, as gold coast price changes are not untill then!

  • certainly a very interesting strategy thats foresure. This would be good because you will be belting out great scores come finals time but if you don,t make the finals due to too many league game losses then you will be kicking yourself and i couldn’t think a worse scenario than pumping out 2300’s and not being in the finals while the finalists are only managing 2100,s. Having said that it is a very good but risky idea and i am now consiering semi- adopting this strategy and i may take in around 200k into round 1. great write up mate.

  • This would be a very good stratergy to go for a league win…….but dont get me started on people having 2nd teams ;)

  • Get ova it. Clearly stipulates its a trial team and has said he has no chance of winning the car.

    Good write up and may be handy later on for the leagues

    Best of luck

  • i am interested in the comment made about Swan dropping in value even if he maintains his average. Is this a given or is it speculation? Has there been any article written about this change?

    • To the best of my knowledge, and please correct me if I am wrong, but as the rookies increase in value during the year the magic number also changes to keep the overall value of the entire 17 teams the same as at the start.

      As a result the premiums always drop in price as the season goes on even if they maintain their average from last season

      • I believe that’s true. The point is that the proportion of rookie priced players is about 2-3 times higher than normal due to the GC. As such, one would expect a player that maintains their average to fall by 2-3 times more than in previous years and that a greater increase would be required to maintain value.

  • Good article for those chasing league victory, assuming they make the finals…….50/50 imo.
    I think $1M might be a bit much to have left over, and this year i believe we might all be pleasantly surprised how quickly some of the better rooks rise in price.

    Might have been a good idea to include a couple of examples of trades?
    For example, do you intend to burn 2 trades early on fallen premiums/high scoring rooks before their first price change- could net you $100K?

  • I think its a potentially flawed strategy.

    I tried this strategy 2 years ago keeping $680K in the Kitty. The problem is that you have deliberately started behind the eight ball to jump on break out players or premium price drops early in the season. The issue is if you cop some key injuries early on you are not only trying to upgrade your initial cheap players but you are also trying to fill injury holes at the same time. This means you are not really improving and end up hoping to win the last 7 or 8 games straight to make the 8. I tried this in a league ranked 250th in the world and ended 7th. Its probably fun to try this in a league ranked 5000th.

  • This is where it is important to have a reasonable balance of guns/mids/rookies.
    Assuming you pick the right mids (whose prices rise from $230k to $300K) it is only costing you a further $100K to upgrade to a gun. Hopefully a couple of those mids turn into keepers (ala Malceski, Waters of 2010). that being said, starting the season with say 12-13 guns 9 keepers) you are looking to find another 8 – 9 gun upgrades which will cost around $1M. Downgrading 9 of your original rookies should make up that $1M.
    This is all based on alot of luck – no major injuries and your rookies getting enough game time to gain in value quickly.
    Hopefully, you should still have 4-5 trades left for finals.

  • 9 keepers) should read as (keepers)

  • Ive used this strategy for the last 2 years, for 2 flags. Its great for the league win, but not so good for the overall ranking.

  • good luck with this experimental strategy.
    i contemplated trying something different…..

    My team consists of a total of what i class as 15 guns, 5 backs (from Goddard down to Deledio the cheapest), 2 mids (Swan, Boyd), 2 ruck (Sandi, Cox), 6 forwards (Chapman down to Higgins the cheapest)

    If i work on the theory that Swan, Goddard and Chapman will go down in value, then maybe i swap these 3 with 3 rookies which would bank me around $1M and i still have 12 guns, then watch through the season as their value drops, then trade the big 3 back into my side.

    I just dont want to lose the points these 3 could score for me while i wait for their value to drop.

  • Just enter the entire Gold Coast team!, GC have about 18 player under $200K so you will have heaps of cash spare and also make shhit loads of cash going up in price and when other people are needing to sit out their players in bye rounds you will have your entire team except for Rd 1 and 9. Once a Premium has dipped in price or a team has finished their 2nd bye just buy in their premium players at will.

  • my dad uses this stratergy every year to try and win the weekly prize in 09 he had 1 million in the bank but ran out of trades due to injured players and rooks that only play 1 or 2 games and u have to trade them out.. last year he started with half a million in the bank he did better but the same thing happend ran out of trades..

  • Remember the team picked took me 10 minuites to make, no thought has gone into it and as i said its a 2nd team i care little about. I know alot of you are saying you have tried it before and it hasnt worked, but remember its alot more viable this season because there are more rookies than any other year (gold coast). im really trialing it so that next year with GWS i can make changes to the strategy and try to perfect it.

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  • The only problem I can see with your starting team is the number of injury prone players. If none of them get injured your Round 24 team should be exceptionally strong, but if you lose a few early (not naming any names Symes and Adcock!) you are in trouble.

    With the extra long season and extra trades in 2011, this technique will work best this year for a one off week win – with a bit of luck.

  • Great write up mate, this theory works well if you are going for grandfinal or weekly prize win. He stipulated it’s not for overall so don’t get carried away readers. If I could do a 2nd team I would give it a go.

  • I’m enjoying the variety of articles and thought processes this year, however do we have to keep promoting cheating?

    As society goes, the more people believe it is okay to do something wrong, the less it becomes outlawed.
    If every man and his dog start playing with 2 or more teams this can only be bad for the game, can’t we just make sure these articles are atleast perceived to be their only team?

    I hope that the AFL don’t pay out weekly prize winners that have 25 teams aimed at number crunching each round for the optimum setup. It is already nigh impossible to win a prize if you play legitimately.

    my 2 cents.

    • To assume Connors, Delidio and Sandliands are keepers is a big call. I think you will eat humble pie on all three of these guys in 2011.