Paul Chapman: Deck of Dream Team 2011

Name: Paul Chapman
Club: Geelong
Position: Midfield/Foward
Bye Rounds: 6 &  22
2010 Average: 113
2010 Games Played: 21
Predicted Average: 115

Why should I pick him? Chappy is a tough, cool, awesome Dream Teamer, and to truly appreciate him, he needs to be in your team. And let me tell you, that’s not such a bad thing….. last year Chappy had three bad scores by his standard, they were 91, 88 and 99. Yes people, I’m hearing you, they are not even bad scores, but when you are Paul Chapman, you get really pissed at anything under 100….. and you don’t want to see him angry. Chappy is one of the most consistent premium DTers going around, and the fact you can pick him as a forward, with the flexibility of a midfield switch, he is hard to resist.

Why shouldn’t I pick him? Last year was the first time since 2006 that Chappy reached 20 games. The word from last years pre season was that he had changed his program, and he was past the chronic hamstring issues that had grounded one of DTs finest too frequently over the last few years. Not all coaches were convinced, however last years performance may give more faith? Those hammy’s are one year older however, so whether people to forget his history are yet to be seen. As a captain option, he is very safe, however never goes completely stupid, with a DT ceiling of about 140 these days.

Deck of DT Rating. Ace- I love Chappy and didn’t have the balls to start with him last year so he cost me a double trade, just so I didn’t have to sit through endless weeks of regret. Unless there is some major injury scare, I wont make that mistake again. If during the pre season he looks healthy and continues to play a roaming role under his new coach, I’ll be locking, loading and enjoying.

49 Comments

  • Boom. Locked and loaded.

    I love watching Chappy play, coaches must tear their hair out wondering who is on him!!

    • There were a couple critical moments last year that made my season, you need luck with injuries, timing, and initial squad selection…

      1. The selection of Waters, Malceski, Maguire and Hunt in the backline – all risky in terms of injury but 2/4 became keepers (Waters, Malceski) and Maguire and Hunt made heaps of cash, and played their fair share of substitution time!

      2. After lock out round 2: Riewoldt has just gone down, Browny has pumped out back to back 140’s, I resisted the urge to pick up the Brown Dog for the voldt and pocket about $80k and instead, went with my gut and forked out the extra $50k and traded in Chappy which was a pivotal moment in my year. In the weeks later those who chose brown where to be burnt….

      3. Great timing (a bit of luck too…) I traded Luke Ball to Joey Montagna for $30k when Joey had dipped and Ball had Peaked, and traded Hall out for Daisy for about the same amount right before Hall dropped about $40k.

      Those and a few other things.

      The morals of the story are: You need chappy. You must take risks on discounted players, but you cant get attached to them.

      The way I see the Adcock’s, Ottens, Knights and the McLeans of this year are that they are proven scorers at AFL level, all have averaged over 80 (bar otten) over 15 games in one season previously. The only question is their bodies. These guys are priced around $50k more than a rookie, are locked in their teams best 22, they definitely are going to make you a substantial amount of cash if they can reach heights similar to what they have previously and be a straight swap to a dropped premium.

      So having said that – if you start with these guys you will have to fork out a bit more than a rookie, but you know that they should score better than a rookie. So if everything goes to plan, you could sell one rookie and bank $100k + then once your discounted players appreciate you could theoretically upgrade 2 of them with your $100k to premiums/keepers

      • Some sweet moves there. You would have killed me last year. I went for Brown Dog after the Brazilian got injured and suffered for it. I was a Chappy doubter. I might not get him and have to pray he gets injured this year. But I dream of locking him in and not needing to cover him after winning the first final and having a week off, and him racking up 100’s all season like the gorilla/man that he is. Ahh the choices.

      • Spot on!!!

  • Absolutely!!!
    Liking the fact he has a bye in rnd 6.
    Even with GAJ gone, can’t see his scores being affected.
    May receive closer attention, but he’s rough, tough, can & will break a tag.
    A must if your going for the car, or else you’ll be playing CATCH UP big time!

  • Great write up Roy… Like you I didn’t have the balls to start with him last year… I won’t be making the same mistake again.

    We all have concerns about Chappy’s hamstrings, but at the end of the day not starting him can put you too far behind the rest of the coaches – who had the balls to go with him from day one… Chappy is a beast, last year he averaged >10+ ppg on the next closest forward… ditto in 2009… As a coach your proud to have this guy in your side.

    Worstcase scenario – If you start him and he breaks down it costs you 1 trade… If you don’t start him, you are potentially using 2+ trades if the hamstring twangs later on in the season… So in the interest of maximising return whilst minimising trades it’s just easier to start with him.

  • Geelong has a bye in Rd 22 – so you need a trade up your sleeve. Or if your team is THAT strong to do without Chappy for one week then go for it. Don’t get me wrong I’ve had Chappy in my team for last three years but these byes in 2011 is p1ssing me off!!

  • more risky not to have him in your team I reckon…..last year I didnt start with him either and regretted it week in week out….

  • he wont be in my team. only reason being is that his going to miss a finals game. how ever he could get a call up after round 22

    • All you people worrying about round 22 have it all wrong! you need to make the finals before you start planning for them. Go ask any coach of any sport if they are worrying about finals at the moment. I can assure you all of them will say No! Wouldn’t you rather make finals in a comfortable position, then you can worry about what to do with the king himself, P.Chapman!

      • i understand what your trying to say. and i agree with you to a certain extent i just dont want to have to have a roookie fill my premium spot IFcome finals if i dont have enough trades.

        your argument isnt really a strong one when you compare afl and dream team. everyone coach knows you build a grandfinal team from the backline. dream team your mids have to be the strongest.

        • if you have chappy it’ll cost you one trade, no chappy will cost you two.
          if you dont havw chappy it will cost you a game, maybe two, which in turn screws your overall ladder position.
          i agree you need a gun midfield, but i think you’ll find chappy will be better suited to your fwd line.
          here’s an idea, ill pick chappy, you dont and see who does better!

          • I came top 3,000 without chappy for the entire season last year…

            Chappy isn’t the be all and end all…

            The 60k+ you have to spend to get chappy over another gun can just be easily put into another player without losing any overall points.

  • Lock and Loaded

  • Great player but big price tag.

  • For me, Chappy is a tough one.

    I also didnt start with him last year but upgraded to him midway through the season – did i regret it? Sure, in hindsight, but then hindsight is 20/20 vision and before last season he had missed at least 5 games a season from 2007-2009 with his injury issues. It’s easy to say with hindsight that people were foolish not to start with him, but like a lot of others i thought he was a better upgrade target to be safe. [But as we know from last year “safe” can = death if we look at the runaway success of all the teams who brought in all of Waters, Hunt, Maguire, Hille etc]

    Chappy will be 30 in 2011. That doesnt mean his scores will magically start to suck, but at some stage over the next few years we can reasonably expect his average to come back down to 80-90 and for him to spend less time in midfield – it just happens with age. Remember a few seasons back when the Chad was the 1st picked? Or Cox up until the start of last year? Most players arent like Goodwin and Milburn and kill it up until they retire..

    Picking up Chappy (and also Bartel, Enright and others), is also be a call on how you think the Cats will go this year with their new coach. If you think that their golden era has ended and they will decline over the next few years while they rebuild, then it would be reasonable to expect that their stats will trend down as well. Aside from the loss of Ablett, they will have a swag of retirements in the next few years (Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Corey, Hunt, Ling, Scarlett, maybe Pods and Enright) and that big a shake up will impact scores.

    Personally, am torn on Chappy. He was riculous in the 1st half of last year, breaking 100 all the way up to Round 11. Havent seen the prospectus yet (thanks Aussie Post) but presumably Chappy is the most expensive forward by at least $50k.. Can the medicos nurse him through another full season (2 byes will help of course)?

    • I hear a few of your points, but in relation to Geelong and their scoring capacity I think that you are looking a few to many years forward. I agree with what your saying to an extent, but think it wont have that much bearing on their scores this year, they have at least another year of being DT sluts in them – especially Chappy so GET ON HIM!

      This will spark a bit of debate, but I have a feeling that CHADwick Cornes could play ok this year and could reap a bit of value, you sell a bench rookie off and upgrade Chad once he has gone up….! No way he will reach the heights of his glory days when he averaged 100+ and was first locked when choosing defenders but surely he will increase his average of 62 last year?? He was running round on one leg last year and early reports are that he came back from mid season surgery in tip top shape and will get a full preseason into his legs this year….?

      Any takers?

      • Read in November i think that Chad had been boxing a lot and was super fit – have to take pre-season reports with a huge grain of salt (many are complete cr@p). Last year was impacted by injuries and he lost confidence big time, but he was a super gun for a few years, and maybe he can go back to averaging 80+ under a new coach??

      • Port’s also rebuilding, and Chad represents the old guard. I wouldn’t be confident of him playing every week, let alone averaging over 65.

  • this guy is a lock.

    any ace of spades must come under serious consideration.

  • Last year was the only year i havent had chappy and i still averaged 2050 for the year and won my league.One man wont win you the car or the league.Massive price tag dodgy hammys round 22 bye and play sydney round 23 = s.hi.t score and collingwood round 24.Im not going to make a mistake this year and get burnt by a hammy ham pered chappy becuase of 1 season of 21 games granted the bye may help.Durability is a big factor in a player for me these days and as a result my team has been performing better than ever.It hurts saying this about chappy.Im not telling anyone not to put him in just giving my opinion food(ham)for thought

  • Dont make the reverse mistake this year Roy lol

  • Pass – Great Player but I’m not taking the Chappy risk

  • he’ll get more attention with Ablett gone, and at 29 years old I have my doubts….

    Chappy is no longer a lock for me…. I’ll need to think about it

    • Which team has/can successfully tag Chappy in the past tho?
      Opposition coach will prob see him as an untaggable Ablett/Swan type and worry about their team mates instead (ie: JSelwood, Corey, Bartel & co..)

      But yes tough decision, but the reward if he puts in a solid year is too good to pass up I reckon!

      • you’re right, I would expect Selwood to get a lot more attention this year, Chappy will no doubt get more attention also. But his role he played last year he was almost unstoppable so if he keeps up his fitness from last year, hes goin to be a huge scorer this year

        I am just worried about age/hammies/tag.

  • If he is 100 percent fit going into round 1 he will be locked and loaded.

  • Not for me ……one of his 29 year old hamstrings will come off the bone this year.
    I certainly don’t wish that on him, I just think he will miss to many games.

  • If he is fully fit I will have to consider. This is my third year and one thing I learned from the first two years is, you need the best players.

  • Hammys and will be tagged relentlessly hard to pick..

  • locked and loaded. will be captain choice along with Swan and Goddard.

  • As mad Geelong supporter who got to see Chappy slaughter opposition sides repeatedly last year, my main concern is what opposition clubs do to him now that GAJ has bailed to the Gold Coast and the oppostion see him as Geelongs most dangerous midfielder. Last year, Chappy hardly ever got any really close attention and pretty much did as he pleased. That may change IMHO. Will the hard tag go to Chappy or Selwood now? Joel’s a GUN but might not hurt you as much as Chappy -who possesses outstanding footskills, goalkicking power and creativity. Think Swan or Hayes not getting tagged at the expense of Didak or lil’ NIcky Dal copping one.
    Its gonna be a really tough call coz clubs will not tag Chappy in the pre-season comp, so we really wont get an idea and will have to wait and see as to what’s gonna happen in the season proper!

    I still think he’s good enough to average 100+per week even with a tag and as such IS A LOCK!

  • The teams that beat Geelong last year didnt take Ablett out of the game….they took others which surprisingly wasnt chappy but Selwood, Bartel etc…..Ablett gone I dont think will radically affect his scoring nor do I think banking on him getting injured is a great course of action…..He is ONE geelong player that I am very happily building my FWD line around…. Next year at thirty (unless Geelong surprise me and win the flag this year) I think Geelong players will be much riskier choices……this year I am backing the lil brick shithouse to smash it again!

    • I’m with you Ravelle and will lock him in, but it wasn’t through lack of trying that opposition teams couldn’t stop the genius of little Gazza. Hopefully the spud opposition taggers won’t be able to stop Chappy either!

      • I know this means little, was simply bored!!! lol
        Chappy’s last 5 scores in games where GAJ didn’t play:
        140, 73, 117, 117 & 137!
        Good luck if teams wanna tag Chappy- it’s hard to stop a train!!!

      • exactly mate…..I am a magpie supporter and still am aghast at GAJ…..I have said it before and will say it again……I think the pies got the wood (pardon the pun but its a premiership year!) over the cats when they STOPPED trying to shut him down….he just made us look silly…….looking at next year why try and stop chappy when its so bloody hard….shut the rest down and alls good….

        • nice stats for Chappy without Ablett……one small concern I did just think of though I hope Geelong dont go looking for ABLETTS 44 missing goals last year with too much more forward time for the ChapMan…..looking at their squad when they need a goal and the set forward arent delivering…(which they often dont) who is the best bet to go down and kick a couplle of quick ones….Chappy..

  • He averaged 10 points more per WEEK than ANY forward last year. Has to be picked on that or you are giving your opponents a head start. Also dpp. Leave him out at your peril.
    My boy.

  • 2011 will see new stars on the DT horizon. No SWAN, ABLETT or CHAPMAN this year. I know that is a big call. But I see 2011 as an emerging season and coaches falling from our ageing champions.

  • Mate, your not understanding my argument, I never said he was a shit player the only reason I’m not picking him in my team is due to his buy. I’m playing for a league. I picked up champy last year in round 16 and still finished 220 overall so pretty poor argument but I’m happy not to pick him. If I was playing for the car he would be the second picked after Sylvia