Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 20

Posted by on 11/8/10 • Categorised as Calvin's Captains

 

Righteo – Yep… I did it again and just check out my players over there from last week. 39% of people took my top pick in Ablett for his 108 and 12% took Montagna’s 112. I’ve been very impressed with Adam Goodes lately and he made me proud last week for his 115! Everyone else was very solid with the expection to Bartel who after a promising start fizzled his way to a poor 78. But I did have him a #5 so that saved my cred a little.

This week I have changed the format. Why you ask? Cause I can, and I’ve been dominating with my picks recently, so I am trying a new method to challenge myself ha ha. But seriously, this way I’ll cover more of the BIG guns, with more detail, rather than wasting time of the dudes we don’t even really consider. Let’s face it… if you don’t have any of these gun below… you should have quit along time ago. Hope you enjoy! Lets roll.

GARY ABLETT

Vs Bulldogs @ Etihad

Why? Gary averages a nice 115 in his last 3 against the Bulldogs, with all his scores of 103, 125, 116 happening in 2009. The game is at Eti were Ablett had 103 in his only game there in 2010, but he did average 120 there in 2009. Ablett’s form is good, and he is back on track averaging 127 in his last 2 this year.
Why Not? Last time these guys met was the Q-Final last year. The Cats won by just 14pts and Gary got the nasty Picken tag. As we all know Picken can tag with the best on them, so that worries me a little. Gary had 103 that day but still had 31d. Gary was also only one of four Cats to crack the ton that day as well.
In A Word – Maybe you don’t have Swanny or you hate Swanny and are looking for someone else. Ablett is a sure thing to crack a ton, my prediction… 108.

LEIGH MONTAGNA

Vs Kangaroos @ Etihad

Why? Firstly he has cracked 100+ a nice 73% of the time this year and is one of the most reliable dudes going around. Leigh averages 113 against the Kanga’s in his last 3 with previous scores of 134, 106, 100. Last time he played them he had 134 in Rd.2 this year where he had 35d, 7m. In this game the Saints won by a massive 104pts and the Kanga taggers were pretty quiet. Rawlings didn’t tag anyone and had 34d himself as his role has somewhat changed this year which is nice to see. 8 St Kilda players cracked 100+ and of course Mont was one of them. This game is at Etihad and Montagna just loves it there. In fact, over the last 2 years he has cracked 100+ there a massive 74% of the time.
Why Not? Not many really. His form has been ok, but he is only averaging 93 in his last 3 this year.
In A Word – His form is not bothering me here one bit. He’ll be fine, especially if you are going off his last encounter with them.

PAUL CHAPMAN

Vs Bulldogs @ Etihad

Why? Chapman has cracked 100+ this year a very impressive  88% of the time and there are not many people who are even close to this. His lowest scores this year are 88, 99 and is averaging 115 for the year. Impressive.
Why Not? There are plenty of reasons unfortunately. Last time he played the Dawgs he only had 81 for his 16d and 2.3g, but he did twing his hammy and it did effect his game. Against the Dawgs he averages just 68 in his last 3. In fact he played these guys 3 times last year, and all those 3 scores feature in his 5 worst scores for 2009. His last 100 Vs the guys was way back in ’07, making them his worst team (easy) over the last 3 years.
In A Word – Too risky for this week I reckon. He’s a gun and you can never write him off, but just too risky. You have been officially Calvinatedly warned.

JIMMY BARTEL

Vs Bulldogs @ Etihad

Why? No reasons. Don’t do it.
Why not? Well, here we go. His form is terrible. He is averaging just 83 in his last 3 games this year and did not bounce back well last week after a week off for his 78pts. Jimmy started really well last week and had a 35 at the quarter and then 60 at the half. From here he only managed 18pts (all in the 4th quarter and none in the 3rd), so what happened? Ran out of juice? Who knows. Last time he played them in the Q-Final he had just 87 (19d, 3g) but he copped a cut on his eye which might have effected his game. In his last 6 games he has only cracked 100 a poor 33% of the time. Oh and his history against the Dawgs isn’t great either with previous scores of 87, 100, 69, carrying an average of just 83.
In A Word – His form is just too terrible, and his history here nearly matches it. It’s a big ‘pass’ for me here.

DANE SWAN

Vs Essendon @ MCG

Why? Firstly because it’s Dane Swan. Last week only 18% of coaches backed in the big fella, compared to the 65% who have done it in previous weeks. I might have scared a few people off, and I do apologise, but we do need to be cautious, and understand all the risks. He left us (and me) with egg on our faces after he had 127 against Geelong. Will you turn your back on him again? No. He averages 125 in his last 3 games this year, and had 30+ touches for the 9th week straight. He also had his 6th straight game where he has kicked at least 1 goal. He averages 110 in his last 3 games against the Bombers with scores of 83, 107, 141. In 2009 the Bombers where his 2nd favourite team to play (of 2 or more games) with those scores up there of 107 and 141. Swanny is at the MCG where he is averaging 128 in his last 3. His form is that hot you can’t really look past him.
Why Not? Well… the 83 he had in his last game against the Bombers is his lowest score for 2010, and the Bombers did it to him in Rd. 5 this year. Collingwood won that game by 65pts and Swanny got an effective tag from Hocking. Swan only managed 25d that night and only 4×100+ scores were had in the game. Meaning maybe another ‘lock down’ DT game again. Also, surprisingly enough, the MCG isn’t his favourite ground. He averages just 106 at the MCG for 2010 and a massive 136 at Etihad. Mad hey!
In A Word – Lock and load. Don’t regret turning your back on him again.

LENNY HAYES

Vs Kangaroos @ Etihad

Why? Lenny is in great form and is averaging 125 in his last 3 this year with 132 last week. Hot hot form in fact. To make things better, Lenny is playing at the ground he just loves, Etihad. He has scored 100+ there a massive 9 times in his last 9 games at an average of 117. Bu the good stuff ends there I’m afraid.
Why Not? It’s not a bad average here Vs them, but it is 99 in his last 3 against the Roos and across his career they are his 3rd worst team. Last time they met (Rd. 2, 2010) Lenny had only 75 pts for his 20d, 5t. The 75 Lenny scored was his 2nd worst score for the year. The Saints thumped the Roos in this game and still Lenny only managed to be only the 15th highest scoring Saint for that game. He wasn’t tagged (which is good) and went head to head with Ziebell, and must have just had a shit day out.
In A Word – His form is hot and he loves Eti, but there are better options I reckon.

ADAM GOODES

Vs Fremantle @ SUBI

Why? I might cop a little for having Goodes in this group here, but he has just been too good, to overlook. So listen up…. He averages 126 in his last 5 games this year with previous scores of 115, 119, 124, 116, 158. See what I mean? He actually doesn’t mind playing Freo either with an average of 111 in his last 3 against them. Add that reasoning to the 115 he had in his last game at SUBI and we are looking at a gun who might fire again. Last time he played these guys was in Rd. 9 this year where he managed 102pts (23d, 8m) and was closely monitored by Tarrent… who is now not playing, yep… lick your lips. Keep in mind that Freo gave the Roos 7×100+ score last week and you might just have yourself a roughie who could and should go BANG again.
Why Not? We have some reasons that might scare you off this inform jet. Freo are his 2nd worst team and in you look past his last 3 games against them you will see that Goodesy has 0×100+ scores  in his 11 matches before that. Old history I know, but worth noting.
In A Word – I like Goodesy this week. Always a slight risk, but his form and recent history is very very promising.

MATTHEW BOYD

Vs Geelong @ Etihad

Why? His form has been awesome up until last week. He still averages 115 in his last 3 this year and this week he is back at Etihad where he averages 135 in his last 3 there. Geelong last week also gave up the most 100_ scores they have for the season against the Pies (7) so maybe he might pop up for one of them if they are giving them out.
Why Not? Last week he had just 82 (told you so) for his 22d which broke his run of 8×100+ scores in a row. In his last 3 against Geelong he has averaged an ok 98, but the problem here is the fact that he has only scored 1×100+ on the Cats in his career of 13 games.  Last time he played the Cats was in that Q-Final where he had 29d (with 78% of them in handballs) for just 81.
In A Word – I’m saying pass again, but what would I know? I only picked Boyd to score low last week as well, but who listened? So yeah.. pass this week and shop for a captain somewhere else.

BRENDON GODDARD

Vs Kangaroos @ Etihad

Why? Owww, I like the look of this. Firstly he averages 112 (112, 115, 109) in his last 3 games this year and has slipped under our radar lately despite his solid form.  Over the last 13 games this year, Goddard’s lowest score is just 96! Last week he floated around loose in defense for his 34d, 7m and even snuck up for 1g. His form against the Roos is great. He averages 125 in his last 2 against them with a massive 137pts (4g, 29d, 11m) in his last against them in Rd. 2 this year. That day he was poorly tagged by Firrito. Goddard also has a smashing record at Eti with 10×100+ scores in his last 10 games there with a super average of 117 (which is 1 game more in a row than Lenny, but with the same average). You liking this?
Why not? I’m clutching at straws here but better write something negative. He’s due… law of averages…. Dunno. No reasons.
In A Word – Not many will go Goddard this week. They will mainly go back to Swanny, or Ablett. So if you are looking for a unique pick…Goddard will be amazing and you should certainly consider him big time.

Personally, I will be back on the Swan train. Up until last week, Swan had averaged me 139 in the last 4 weeks, then I went Montagna. Will not make that mistake again, I’m sorry Swanny, please keep it going big gun. But, on the other hand, geez I like the look of Goddard… bloody hell I do! Anyway, hope you drill a ripper!

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395 Comments

  1. Avatar of baconb
    baconb
    August 11, 2010 • 7:04 pm

    swan swan swan
    f**k the rest

  3. Avatar of nameless
    nameless
    August 11, 2010 • 7:15 pm

    what about the voldt? ave 127 in his last 3 against north melbourne, including 147 last time. i’d consider him

  4. Avatar of Patto.
    Patto.
    August 11, 2010 • 7:21 pm

    Yer, missed the Voldt. Tossing up between him and Swan.

  5. Avatar of Kaiobe
    Kaiobe
    August 11, 2010 • 7:22 pm

    Off Captain topic;

    Who would be best to bring in for Cooney if this virus rules him out.

    I already have Swan, Ablett, Hayes, Selwood & Dal Santo.

    Money is no object. Thinking of Boyd.

  6. Avatar of SettingTheBarlow
    SettingTheBarlow
    August 11, 2010 • 7:28 pm

    I was so close to going Hayes last week but I went Goodes instead. Got a week off so I could take a risk, but I’ll go Swan.

  7. Avatar of Patto.
    Patto.
    August 11, 2010 • 7:29 pm

    Who to bring in for the last three rounds?
    Sylvia, Buddy, Goodes, Didak or Riewoldt? Price is irrelevant.

  8. Avatar of PurpleArmy
    PurpleArmy
    August 11, 2010 • 7:46 pm

    liking the looks of Goodes again, Freo are under manned so i dont think all the young kids will keep up with him. Pretty much all the big saint players will score well so take your pick really……if you dont have swan

  9. Avatar of buck
    buck
    August 11, 2010 • 7:53 pm

    for anyone that’s curious like me:

    nick riewoldt’s past scores against north melbourne since 2008 go: 147, 114, 120, 128. and lachie hansen played a fair portion of the game on him aswell.

    i’ll be locking him in as i have the week off so will be using the opportunity to take a punt.

  10. Avatar of Hurl_the_Pears
    Hurl_the_Pears
    August 11, 2010 • 7:58 pm

    hmm.. Monty or Goddard? Whos more likely to have an easier opponent on them? Dont really know much bout the Kangas…

  11. Avatar of dt lad
    dt lad
    August 11, 2010 • 8:00 pm

    VOLDT was good last week with 122 as captain

    might be going back there this week…..

  12. Avatar of Jonesy
    Jonesy
    August 11, 2010 • 8:07 pm

    hey calvin i got a week off finals this week in both my leagues, so i’m thinking of trying a roughie to try and be the top dream team of the week, because

    1) i came 401st last week with swan
    2) any good team will have swan as captain so if the roughie comes off that will shoot me up the rankings for the week

    i’m thinking maybe gia

    • Avatar of andyjh
      andyjh
      August 11, 2010 • 10:00 pm

      Since i have the week off, i thought i might have a laugh this week and make the big mummy ( shane mumford) my captain. If sandilands doesnt play he could rack up a decent score.

    • Avatar of Calvin
      Calvin
      August 11, 2010 • 10:32 pm

      Gia?? Umm… what about someone like Goddard?
      I reckon he will be under picked this week and could have a 140, Goodes is another option. 70% will go with Swan I reckon this week, so yeah have a stab.
      Gia would be ok, if Boyd or Higgins misses, he kills it if any of those 2 are out

  13. Avatar of maanco
    maanco
    August 11, 2010 • 8:37 pm

    Calvin i love the new format but could you add a few more next time

    eg: J.Selwood, C.Silva, A.Didak, , N.Voldt ect.

    • Avatar of Swamp Dragon
      Swamp Dragon
      August 11, 2010 • 10:05 pm

      Would love to see some more there too – some of the best captains I’ve had for the year have been your roughies – Pendlebury, Thomspon, Hodge, Stanton

    • Avatar of Calvin
      Calvin
      August 11, 2010 • 10:33 pm

      I could… but I’d be here all freaking week doing it.
      Just thought I’d try something different. This took 4.5 hours instead of the usually 6-7 so it might stay for a while.

      • Avatar of Blue boys
        Blue boys
        August 11, 2010 • 11:24 pm

        Exactly Calvin, good job mate. People chasing roughies really doesn’t work, look at blokes like Swan and Ablett and their top score are as good as anyone and they do it consistently. Maybe snag a roughie that actually does well once every 6 weeks and in the mean time you have lost a couple hundred points.
        For shits and giggles if you have the week off, or if you think you opponent has you covered give it a shot………otherwise stick with the big boys!!!

      • Avatar of mini freo
        mini freo
        August 12, 2010 • 12:23 am

        How bout you leave the us the template like you did when you were busy and we can search up the roughies ourselves. Just a thought

  14. Avatar of BT
    BT
    August 11, 2010 • 9:58 pm

    I think I might go Lenny- his average includes 1 game last year and 1 in ’07, so his form matters more- and besides, he helped me last week as captain (132!!!), so I should repay the faith!

  15. Avatar of eeepobreci
    eeepobreci
    August 11, 2010 • 10:03 pm

    Great stuff, love the format!
    Captain Swan, traded him in rnd 11, but kept Ablett (c) & Swanny scored more, so made him (c) the following week & he scored 150.
    Locked and loaded since rnd 12.
    Wouldn’t surprise me if Gazza has a big game, now that he’s back with Lauren.lol

  16. Avatar of Patto.
    Patto.
    August 11, 2010 • 10:23 pm

    TBH, I don’t like the new set out better. Just my opinion though as you have missed a couple of my players like Riewoldt and Stanton who should and usually are written/researched about.

    Stanton:
    V Pies @ MCG
    Form: 116, 134, 77, 110
    Past 3 against Pies: 139 (earlier this year), 88, 139
    Last game at the MCG: 116
    Certainly one to consider if you are looking for a roughie.

  17. Avatar of Calvin
    Calvin
    August 11, 2010 • 10:36 pm

    At the end of the day… everyone in the AFL can be ‘considered’. But the question is… do you have the balls to do it? Probably not if you are chasing a good national ranking or a win this weekend. But at the end of the day if your teams is shit and you have been knocked out of finals or you have the week off, or maybe you are in the tit-ed cup… “consider” and stab away at a mega roughie… you might as well

  18. Avatar of Kevinf21
    Kevinf21
    August 11, 2010 • 11:02 pm

    lol lets just be sheep and follow calvin and pick swannie
    gee so vanilla

  19. Avatar of LaHug
    LaHug
    August 11, 2010 • 11:31 pm

    Tempted to go a unique… Got the week off and plenty of options. Might do some magic research and see! And if not, I’ll fall back on Goddard or Goodes with the advice of my favourite pirate!

  20. Avatar of geebang
    geebang
    August 11, 2010 • 11:38 pm

    put the (vc) on swan last week and gave selwood the honours.
    lost my second chance final by 2 points
    never again will i go against the big #36

  21. Avatar of McScoundrel
    McScoundrel
    August 12, 2010 • 7:22 am

    Thanks Calvin…Goodes’s 230 was a great platform last week. Swan was my captain in the game he cracked 83 against the Bombs so I’m passing on him this week and its B Goddard for me. After boring weeks of either Swan or Boyd all of a sudden come finals I’m picking rookie captains – Goodes and now Goddard. Goddard should comfortably rack up a ton this week imo.

  22. Avatar of maanco
    maanco
    August 12, 2010 • 7:31 am

    Calvin maybe you could also add a predicted score

    thanks for all your help in 2010

  23. Avatar of tom the bomb
    tom the bomb
    August 12, 2010 • 7:52 am

    I’m definatly going with swan who could go past 110+ for the past nine weeks.
    obviosly looking him in.

  24. Avatar of orbs
    orbs
    August 12, 2010 • 8:17 am

    Calvin as always love your work but im going to say this again to you. Spend the time whacking off instead of writing this. Its a very simple equation;

    If you have Swan make him your captain

    If you dont have swan then you dont give a f**k because you are not in the finals.

  25. Avatar of SloppyJoe
    SloppyJoe
    August 12, 2010 • 10:19 am

    I’ve had Swan Capt for the last 10+ weeks and if this week mattered to me I would definitely have him Capt again.

    But I have a week off in all my leagues and am ranked just outside the top 5k so I figure I’ll take a punt, but I haven’t completely decided yet.

    It’s a loyalty thing.

  26. Avatar of SloppyJoe
    SloppyJoe
    August 12, 2010 • 10:26 am

    Also while I’m here (and though this isn’t on topic), what do people think about young Jones fron the Dogs as a downgrade target – do you think he will play the last 3 games and provide cover?

    I’m looking to downgrade my current bench player this week (Pods) and use the cash to upgrade Grundy the week after. But I need cover for the finals and it sure as hell won’t be provided by Relton.

  27. Avatar of Gazinator
    Gazinator
    August 12, 2010 • 10:34 am

    Great write up Calvin. I chose Monty last week over Swan and was kicking myself at 3 qtr time. But quality always pulls through, I’ll take the 102 anyday! Only missed out on 25 points in the end :-)

    I have the week off and feel like being risky (rank 1918th) hmmmm times like this I’d go Barlow!

  28. Avatar of magic34
    magic34
    August 12, 2010 • 11:15 am

    Jeez I miss the early-mid part of this season when not everyone had Swanny…He was winning me games off his own boot, but now it seems like every man and his dog has him skipper each week.
    I blame Barlow getting injured – that’s when everyone (in my league at least) seemed to jump on Team Swan

  29. Avatar of McScoundrel
    McScoundrel
    August 12, 2010 • 11:55 am

    I agree mate…that did bring the pack together. I reckon another key moment when the pack was brought together was when volt got injured and we had to pick a “premium” forward. There would have been a gap between teams with volt v teams without volt in much the same way as teams with Goddard v teams without Goddard have gone.

  30. Avatar of TWC
    TWC
    August 12, 2010 • 1:20 pm

    Who is this Dane Swan fella….?

  31. Avatar of Capt_Awesome
    Capt_Awesome
    August 12, 2010 • 1:49 pm

    Only got 2 trades left but a trade of Rockliff to Didak is looking very tempting. Any thoughts?

    • Avatar of toasted
      toasted
      August 12, 2010 • 3:16 pm

      Got to be a winner. But with two trades left do you need to make changes? What is your opponent’s team like? I know it may be cut throat but can you hold off?

  32. Avatar of MC
    MC
    August 12, 2010 • 3:00 pm

    Im am going Swan this week for sure over Boyd.

    But i want to come in and defend Boyd and say it was wet weather last week, that must have played a part in his score you would think. He has been in ripper form and been doing me well and yes Calvin you did pick it so hats off.

    But I think he will score well this week being back to normal.

    • Avatar of McScoundrel
      McScoundrel
      August 12, 2010 • 3:30 pm

      He was well held by some Adelaide plonker and never got into space around the stoppages. What hurt his score most though was that he just forgot to tackle. He only laid one in the first half and then got a few junk points by wrapping a few boys up. Had he been doing that from the start he would’ve got to 100.

  33. Avatar of jvalles69
    jvalles69
    August 12, 2010 • 4:15 pm

    The only problem I see with your setup Calvin..is that it makes it harder for me to bet on dream team points!!! ;)

    Nice work mate, i do lots of the research too, to get my punts in for the week!

  34. Avatar of Shazzam
    Shazzam
    August 12, 2010 • 5:09 pm

    1st time DTer.

    What happens to the guys that are straight into the prelims? No game this week? And my addiction had just change gears. I hope my the world doesn’t end after DT does!!! Or do I?

  35. Avatar of CJ is JC
    CJ is JC
    August 12, 2010 • 6:00 pm

    Alan Didak

    WHY?
    last 4 games this year are 128, 118, 122 and 114 an average of 120.5
    his last 4 games against the bombers are 106, 121, 52 and 122 an average of 100.25
    WHY NOT?
    i dnt know just lock him in aye, if you dont have any one else.
    IN A WORD?
    he is in great form and has done well against the bombers in previouse games take away the 52 you have an average of 116.
    im predicting 120

  36. Avatar of jman634
    jman634
    August 12, 2010 • 6:37 pm

    Joel Selwood.

    The man never gets a mention but his form since round 5 has been excellent.
    He has hit a top score of 162 in round 17 and has the potential to score massively as shown by his 180 odd score last year. His 3 round average is 123 and is probably worth a punt if this is a dead round to you like it is for me.

    Happy dream teaming!

  37. Avatar of Nudge
    Nudge
    August 12, 2010 • 7:15 pm

    Captain! Nah, don’t care, I’m through until next week.
    I’ll be bored out of my brain this weekend!!!!!!!
    Just out of interest though, I’d choose Swan, he’s on such a huge roll and got his bad week out of the way last week.

  38. Avatar of Bull8
    Bull8
    August 13, 2010 • 12:08 pm

    Ya have to look at Volt!

    Been out for most of the season and has played 5 games now so his fitness is there and fresh

    marks and goals and works hard

    hard to keep quite

    Roos wont be able to shut him down

    How soon we forget rounds one and two

    Swan is on fire but if your playing a team with the Swan in it ,,whats the point of both having him as your Captains?? Go big Nick!! Oh and 164 against the Roos in R2 ???

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