Calvin’s Captains – Rd. V8

Righteo – arrgg oi oi yo yo whack daddy. Ha ha, turned into a homeboy pirate there! Right, lets get serious. Last week was a wicked week for Gary Ablett owners. Check out my top 5 last week! Gary Ablett popped out a huge 167 against one of his favourite teams. The Swan’s are traditionally one of the hardest team to score against. But big Gazza did what he does best and he smashed them to buggery.

By popular demand, the table below shows the 100+ scores that teams give up to opposition players. There’s no surprise to see the Swans on top, despite what the Cats did to them last week. We are still obviously avoiding the big nuts up there in Geelong, Fremantle and Brisbane (despite their drop in form). The ones we want to be picking captain’s against are the bunnies down the bottom. Richmond are still there and they have now been joined by Port who have given up 26×100+ scores each over the last 5 week. THAT’S HUGE!! This week we see the Hawks and Carlton play these guys, so start licking your lips with your fingers crossed  if you are looking at any of those lads. Good luck everyone and lets get into it!

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Fremantle Vs Collingwood

Swan – 117
Didak – 99
Sandilands – 87
Leon – 87
Pavlich – 87
Pendlebury – 74
Shaw – 58

Righteo, we are kicking off this week’s round from Subiaco! Pavlich’s average here is slightly wrecked as he had just 16 in his last game Vs the Pies as he went out of the game early with a calf injury. Before that he went 92 and 144, not too bad at all. In that last game, Sandi was huge in height and huge in numbers… he had 44h/o, 25d, 8m for his huge score of 138. That 100+ score is his only 100+ number against the Pies in his career of 10 games. Heath Shaw had just 75 and 95 in his last 2 and in his last game Vs the Dockers, Leon Davis had an impressive 119. Didak is one to watch. He had 156 (39d, 2g) in his last game here and that big score of 100+ is his only big one against the Dockers in his career of 9 games, similar to Sandiman. Dane Swan has been good lately, not Gary good, but good. His previous scores here are 72, 122, 150, 100 oh oh oh I missed out his 158 which he had in his last, opps he he. In that last game he had 41d, 11m. Watch out for a huge one again this week.
Swanny at SUBI– Yep, his favourite ground across his career of just 4 games where he has an average of 114, with that 158 coming from this very ground. Umm yeah! Very good!
Taggers Didn’t Work– I hate them. Nevermind. In the last game these guys played, Brougham went to Didak he had 156. Deboer went to Swan (158) but it is worth noting that Crowley DNP.

Westerndawgs Vs Sydney

ROK – 99
Boyd – 94
Goodes – 89
Cross – 87
Kirk – 84
Gia – 83
Cooney – 82
Higgins – 59

Not a great deal here to look out surprisingly, but Sydney are involved. Cross has never cracked 100 Vs the Swan in his 7 attempts and Boyd’s record isn’t much better. He has previous numbers of 75, 131, 76, and that 131 is his only 100+ score Vs the Swans in his career of 8 games. Gia has been outstanding! His form is going mad mad mad! He had 142, 154, 125 in the last 3 weeks and he had 126 in his last games Vs the Swans. In that game he had 26d, 7m, 5t, but before that he had 66 and 57 though… umm, but his form has been far too good to ignore I reckon. But be careful. Higgins had 119 in his last too, but with an average of 59 in his only 3… you’d be passing on him this week. Kirk tagged Griffin last time, and in that game he had 123 as well. ROK ran all over the park last game Vs the Dawgs for his 124. Before that he has some solid scores of 60, 112, 109. Adam Goodes struggled last week against the Cats (and lost me money because of it – had a massive multi arg) He had 126, 43, 100, 110 in his last 4 here, with that 43 coming in the Semi Final in 2008. But as I said, not a huge deal here, so I’d be shopping elsewhere. If you have to pick one though… Goodes for me.

Melbourne Vs West Coast

Grimes – 126
Bruce – 113
Green – 107
Cox – 96
Priddis – 80

Firstly, I’m tipping Melbourne, based on those averages up there. Green has gone 102, 114, 106, 119, 110 in his last 5 here (avg. 110) and should go just as well again against his 2nd favourite team DT wise. Bruce has had 96, 104 and a smashing 138 in his last 3 scores, but it’s Grimesy that gets me interested here. I his only 2 games against the Eagles he has posted 143 and 109 (Rd. 7 and 14, 2009) obviously making them his favourite team… easy! Cox has been doing pretty well lately and does ok here with 112, 93 in his last 2 against them. He never played on the MCG in ’09, but did average 123 there on 2008 from his 3 games. Matthew Priddis scrapped over the line to win me money last week, so I’ll be nice. He averages 80 here in his only 3 games against the Dees and has never cracked the 100 mark.

Brisbane Vs Geelong

Chapman – 113
Ablett – 108 (see corrected post)
Brown – 109
Bartel – 98
Power – 93
Black – 84
Stevie J – 80
Selwood – 78

Brownie has been… poor, lately but has a solid record Vs the Cats here with 140 (23d, 4g, 15m), 67, 119 in his last 3. Simon Black is going ok and he had 127 in his last game here and he is joined by Power who had 128 in the same match. Stevie J has been smashing it in the last few weeks averaging 132 in his last 2 games, impressive! Against the Lions he has only managed 2×100+ scores in his career of 11 games Vs them, umm. Bartel is an interesting one. He scored just 49 (Stiller tagged) in his last game against them and before that he was awesome. In his 5 games before that 49 he scored all 100+ scores at an average of 117, but that 49 looks dirty hey?! Gary Ablett is averaging 131 this year and is going pretty well, ummm really well. Here he plays his worst DT team…EVER. Yeah not what you were expecting hey? Anyway… lets chat about it. He didn’t play in their ‘last game’ in Rd. 15, 2009, but his last 3 scores are 92, 155, 78 and that 155 is his only 100+ score on the Lions in his career against them (12 games). As big as that 155 is, we can not ignore this fact, that they are his worst team to play. PLUS… yeah sorry there is more. This game is at the GABBA…. Gazza also has a poor record there with his highest score being just 88 from his 4 runs there (but his last game there was in ’07). Am I going against him, well… your call, and the way he is going… how can you not? He is smashing it! But… you have been warned.
Lions Win = JB goes offa… yep it’s so true. This year in games where Brisbane have won, Brownie has averaged 115, and when they lose… 62. So how does that compare with the Cats in the past. Well, over the last 4 years when the Lions beat the Cats, JB has averaged 132, and when they lose…74. So will they win? Or are the Lions sliding down the JB slide of shitness again? For the record… Brisbane beat Geelong (108 to 65) in their last game in Rd. 15, 2009.

Kangaroos Vs Adelaide

Harvey – 112
Thompson – 110
Edwards – 98
Goodwin – 95
Vince – 70*

Really quick here. Harvey has scored 84, 119 and a huge 134 in his last few against the Crows and looks the goods again. Thompson made my top 5 last week and did me well (I hope you all betted). He has 119, 95 and 116 in his last 3 and does average 107 in his last 5 as well. Goodwin has had a consistent run against the Roos with his lowest score being just 84 in his last 6 here. Vince’s average of 70 is just from 2 games. Oh and Tyson Edward’s average is made up of 92, 106 and 97 if you’re interested… which I’m not – NEXT

Richmond Vs Hawthorn

Deledio -128
Hodge – 106
Buddy – 103
Mitchell – 101
Sewell – 85
Riolli – 74

Anyone playing Richmond is worth looking at. If Buddy kicks straight… look out. In his last 2 games against the Tigers he has kicked a total of 8.12g for scores of 131 and 120 and averaged 20d. He might be due Warnedawg, be patient. Hodgey could be a good one too with his last scores of 114, 85, 119, 99. His form has been good and his history here is fine… and he is playing Richmond, ummm. Sam Mitchell has been missing for several weeks. Does this mean he is fresh, keen and ready to go? Or stale, rusty and out of touch? Who knows but he does go well against the Tigers. With an average of 111 in his last 5 he is certainly on the radar again this week. During his last 7 games against the Tigs he has a low score of just 87 and a high of 133 – very impressive… but are you going to be fresh or rusty.. let’s find out..
Fresh or Rusty? –  Sam’s last game he sat out was in Rd. 4, 2008. The next week he pumped out 127. Another time he missed was in rd. 17, 2007 and the next week he managed 96. Doesn’t tell us much, but Sam hasn’t really missed 3wks straight before… I am worried.
Don’t Forget Deledio – He SMASHES the Hawks, and smashes them badly! He has scored 139, 125, 120 in his last 3 against them averaging 32d, 5t. Watch out for mega huge crazy game from him again this week.

Port Adelaide Vs Carlton

Marc – 116
Kane – 102
Gibbs – 100
Boak – 96
Judd – 91
Carrazzo – 91
Cassisi – 71

Kane Cornes has scored 4×100+ scores in his last 7 games against the Blues, but does has a 75 in his last. Boak’s averages of 96 is from the only 3 games he has played against the team that smashed up St Kilda last week. Cassisi will struggle despite his improved form. He only has 1×100+ score here in his career of 10 games. Not good Dom. Gibbs has done pretty well against the Power before with scores of 105 and 130 in his last 2. Marc Murphy pumps out good numbers as well. 126 (33d, 3g), 96, 125 are his last 3 score here and he will go well again. Judd is a machine, I love this bloke more than Warnedawg enchiladas. But this week he WILL find it tough. His highest score against the Power is just 100 from the 12 games he has played them throughout his career. Not good!
Kane Will Tag Judd– Sure thing… guaranteed! Always goes to him and will do again! The Power let all the others in Marc and Bryce run free and clamp down the big boy Juddy! This is why Juddy always struggles here. Kane is one of the best at this, even for Juddy.

St Kilda Vs Essendon

Jobe – 118
Hayes – 116
Montagna – 107
Goddard – 96
Dal Santo – 96
Stanton – 74
Hille – 61

Stanton goes well here and should do ok again. But when you seen his previous scores of 100, 56, 65 you start to go ummmmm… before those score though he knocked up 4×100+ scores in 4 games straight. As I said… ummmm, interesting! Jobe Watson is another interesting one. He has previous scores of 146 and 133, yep that’s right, leaves you thinking “why not?”, his history is unbelievable Vs the Saints and his form has been solid as well. Dal Santo was Dal Stinko last week and got a towelling. He had 115 in his last one Vs the Bombers and will be looking to go BANG tjis week after sucking in his last game Vs the Blues. Montagna has had previous scores of 109, 122, 90 here and isn’t really an option I don’t think. Goddard had just 66 in his last here and before that he had 107 and 116. These 100+ scores are his only 100+ scores Vs the Bombers in his career of 10 games Vs them, crazy hey! Lenny Hayes in the stand out of this group though and his form has been back on track to the Lenny of old. 111, 147, 90, 118, 116 are his last 5 scores and if you have Lenny, set yourself for a huge game this week.

This week for me, I’m going back2back Swanny. You can’t ignore him this week. Plenty of roughies this week, read it again for those and don’t forget to use this info to bet within your limits. Ablett makes my list this purely on form and I will never doubt the gun, but you have been warned! – Good luck everyone!!

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