Wookiee week
We all know about the AFL’s indigenous round, its heritage round and even its women’s round, so it’s weird that the league’s rookie round has passed without the slightest bit of fanfare. It might not have been heavily publicised, but round 10 definitely belonged to the youngsters with four rookies rattling off 100s and another 20 cracking a half-century or better – an unprecedented result this season. Also unprecedented is the breakeven of Beau Muston, his -166 even more delicious than the one Bradd Dalziell baked last year.
The tremors from Muston’s earth-shatteringly good scores have been felt as far afield as the US, judging from a phone call I received this morning. Here’s the transcript.
Chook: Morning, Chook speaking.
George Lucas: Howdy champ, it’s Star Wars director George Lucas here.
Chook: The George Lucas. Thanks for putting Natalie Portman in those prequels, man. Getting rid of the original Princess Leia for Portman was like, um, like upgrading Jared Petrenko to a gold-rolled premo like Brendan Goddard.
George Lucas: If I’m picking up what you’re putting down, this Petrenko bloke must be a useless bastard. Anyway, I hear you’re the man to talk to about Wookiees?
Chook: Um, rookies? Yeah, maybe, although my mate Warnie is 21st in the world so he might be better to…
George Lucas: Listen, pal, I ain’t got all day. I’m trying to squeeze every last cent out of the Star Wars franchise so I’ve started casting for a third Ewok telemovie. I’ve got all my grandkids to play the Ewoks, but still need some Wookiees. I’m told there’s an outstanding Wookiee down under called Muston?
Chook: He’s an awesome rookie, but if it’s an actor you’re after, Steve Johnson would be your man.
George Lucas: Is he a Wookiee?
Chook: Er, no, but…
George Lucas: What about Fremantle and Adelaide? My man on the ground says they’ve got more Wookiees than they know what to do with.
I hung up about then, later kicking myself that I’d neglected to mention Quinten Lynch. Now there’s someone who’d pass as Chewbacca. The phone call got me thinking, though: if blokes like Lucas have heard about the rookie crop of 2009, are they a better bunch than the 2008 lot? I guess it’s too early to judge, with the first and second picks still to debut (although Jack Watts and Nick Naitanui are both chances this week), but have your say in the comments. How do Daniel Rich and Andy Otten stack up against the likes of Rhys Palmer and Craig Bird? Will any defenders rival Garrick Ibbotson’s outstanding DT efforts last year? Can Robin Nahas do a Cyril Rioli?
Anyway, on to round 10’s heroes and zeroes.
Three-or-more gamers
As I said in the opener, round 10 was a good’un for the rookies. Even serial stinker Matthew de Boer had a decent DT game, although he was easily overshadowed by teammate Greg Broughton in his third match at AFL level. Freo defender Broughton bagged 105 points in the loss to Richmond, shooting up $60,000 this week. Injury has been his nemesis thus far, and it struck again in the form of a third-quarter ankle injury, although Broughton returned to add another 20 points to his tally. I’d guess he’ll face a fitness test before being named again this week. Brisbane’s Daniel Rich rose significantly too, up $20k after cracking triple figures for the first time this year. He looks to be getting more time on the ball, meaning his scores will benefit, meaning he’s not as close to peaking as I thought, meaning I’m a bit pissed that I sold him last week. Andrew Collins was the third centurian in the three-or-more-gamer ranks, bettering his round-nine 92 with a 103 against Fremantle. His price leapt another $27,500 for a total change thus far of $170,000, making him the second-best bread winner this year behind Brendan Whitecross (up $201k). Don’t we all wish we were among the couple of thousand big-balled coaches who picked that unlikely pair at the start of the year. Forward duo Taylor Walker and Robin Nahas rebounded from poor scores in round nine with a 92 and 84 respectively, while blonde-haired Roo Ben Warren’s 83 was almost 20 points higher than his previous best. He’s got a BE of 10, Walker’s is 21 and Nahas’s is 56.
At the other end of the scale you’ll now find Jack Ziebell. The North Melbourne forward/midfielder has had back-to-back 50s after missing the club’s game against Geelong, chopping $5000 off his price and saddling him with a BE of 105. A corkie near the nutbag prevented Stephen Hill from contributing much in Freo’s defeat. His 42 points were well under his BE, resulting in the loss of $17 grand and a new BE of 64 – eight points above what he’s averaged this year. At least he’s got familiar company in the red zone with teammate Nic Suban (49 average, 61 BE) joining him. A 68-point game couldn’t drag Melbourne’s Jamie Bennell out of trouble, with his new BE of 56 still six points higher than what he’s averaged this season. Others to watch out for if recalled are Dayne Beams (avg 60, BE 66), Alex Rance (avg 62, BE 79) and Jared Petrenko (avg 42, BE 63).
Yeah, there are heaps of other rookies in this bracket who I haven’t mentioned, but I’m only tagging the blokes at the pointy ends – the ones who tore up the previous round and those in danger of haemorrhaging dough.
Two gamers
This is usually where I compare the respective strong suits of players on the brink of their first price rise as coaches try to determine which one or two from the bunch is worth bringing in. This week, though, unless we witness the return of a two-games-earlier-in-the-year type, like Nathan Grima (good in the VFL last week) or Jason Davenport, there’s just the one player to consider, Hawthorn’s Beau Muston. The question is not “which one?”, then but “will I or won’t I?” I will, simply because the rewards outweigh the risks. I wrote last week about Muston’s pros and cons, but a week’s a long time in football and the story has been edited a little. The main cons are Muston’s history with injury, namely three knee reconstructions (which hasn’t changed) and the potential stoush for selection at Hawthorn (which has changed). Injuries to another two teammates on the weekend have eased the pressure on Muston to hold his place. Also, B2 is currently playing at a level that surely makes him undroppable. In the pros box you have his points-earning potential, which he’s twice showed to be enormous, and his money-making potential which, if the big scores keep coming, will be equally as immense. Muston managed 106 in his second match, down from his first-up 127, but still mighty enough to manufacture a monstrous breakeven of -166. If he bags a flat 100 in his next match, his price will jump about $95,000 in one go. Even a 50 would see him soar more than $75k in a week. With that kind of reward and slightly improved job security, I can’t not bring him in. I expect there’ll be one or two others doing the same. Keep in mind, of course, that any money Muston makes will be irrelevant to coaches without sufficient trades to upgrade/downgrade him later in the piece; for those coaches, Muston can only be all about the points.
One gamers
Three rooks lost their league virginities on the weekend, and one was just 17. Hawthorn’s Luke Shiels bagged 70 points but won’t expect to find his name on the senior team sheet every week, regardless of how large his club’s casualty list grows. The same is true of Geelong’s Nathan Djerrkura, who picked up 58 points in the Cats’ walloping of Essendon. West Coast’s Tom Swift has a better chance of getting games, but he was fairly obscure in his 44-point performance on Friday night. His WAFL stats suggest he could come good. All three, for the record, can be picked in the midfield.
Happy trading. Oh, and remember to have your say on how this year’s rookies stack up against the class of ‘08.
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i failed poortly on rookies last year, had good selections few and far between. this year, i haven’t been as good as the Warnedawg but i have managed to go thru petrenko (now hodge), rance (now grimes), walker (now franklin – comon lift u muppet), and still have broughton, cheney, rich, ziebell, sidebum, beams, nahas and garlett, with 9 trades and 250k left with which to milk the bulk of them.
i’m just trying to highlight how many there are, and if bought/sold at the right time how consistent the bulk have been with their price rises. can’t wait to cash in over the next few rounds
traded in muston at the last minute before lockout last round as i realised i was gonna make a double upgrade this round and needed to fit him in now or never. good thing he turned out to be delicious!
ive still got wade thompson sitting on my pine for gosh knows how long its been :] #$@&!!!
For anyone interested, Hayden Ballantyne (Forward, 86k) played his first game in WAFL on saturday, looked really impressive dominating his opponent (Pratt, a Freo rookie -which is good should keep broughton in the side), kicked 5 goals, but most importanty scored 89 DT points. Only issue may be he corked his leg i 4th qtr….however I believe he will get selected this week! Watch out for him he will be the answer to me choosing Wade Fucking Thompson!
Swifty showed good ball winning ability, but his disposal was shocking. If he doesnt improve he may be dropped fairly soon especially if they re-elevate Cockie.
I picked up Grima this week, now I really need him or Cheney to play.
I only have 8 trades and am keen on sniping Kornes. Would like Muston too, since Ablett might be missing for the next few weeks. I have three players that might be OUT:
- T Tuck
- Coughlan
- Beams
If Tuck and Coughlan aren’t playing they will be gone, but if one or both of them are, my decision is going to be quite difficult.
Beams for Muston for me is pretty no-brainer. Unfortunately with Chad -> X as a second trade (12 games left, Chad will miss at least 25% of them if not more and probably not be at full fitness immediately on returning, and I have Hodge on the bench already- have to do it) I can’t really look at upgrading any rookies this week- lucky my other guys getting towards their peak are Rich, Whitecross, Warren and Mitch Brown, all of whom should beat their BE this week and rise a bit higher.
Muston isn’t about the price rise to me, or the earning potential… i don’t have the trades to cash him in, but i have the trades to sell 300k Rick Hadley and buy 86k Muston so that i can upgrade elsewhere… booya!
Had my best week this week (even though i sacked higgins for franky) and scored 2238. I am staring down the barrel of maybe 3 donuts in that backline; Hill, Chad, Broughton and i doubt Malceski will play coz he really stinks.. Only have the big Z playing on the pine… Looks like no Muston for me (quietly hoping everyone else does and he does a hammy)
DT’s ups and downs are scary.
What are anyone’s thoughts on the mediocre mid’s (aka Cross/Foley)?? I figure I’m gonna double trade this wk with a definite of Ziebell -> Muston but the question is to upgrade Cornes -> Goddard or upgrade either Foley/Cross to the likes of Swan/Montagna/Hayes?? Midfield pine is L.Anthony & M.Coughlan, Back pine will be Cornes & Cheney/Broughton…
Great write up Chook! This is my favourite post on DT Talk, after Calvin’s Captains *made* me go for Bryce Gibbs last week! Haha…
My rookies have been great. Nailed most of the stars.
I’ve traded out: Otten, Rich, Petrenko, Walker, Mitch Brown, Robinson… which has allowed me to get in: Swan, Riewoldt, Stevie J, Pavlich, Coughlan.
No I am sitting with 2 onfield rookies: Grimes and Ziebell. On my pine is: Hill, Broughton, Muston, Beams, Warren, Macaffer… Jacobs & Spencer.
The only real shitty ones there are Macaffer and my rucks. Gutted with those.
My semi-plan now is to get rid of Ziebell for Ballantyne, Warren in a couple of weeks for Didak. But the spanner in the works is everyone’s mate, Chad Cornes.
Argh!
Can anyone help me understand how the Break Even is calculated. Cant find answer on the dreamteam website anywhere.
Fine some info here PiesTop4.
http://dreamteamtalk.com/2008/03/31/the-break-evens/
Chad has to be traded surely?.. 6 weeks out and a 153 b/e when he comes back?
Thinkin of doing the stragiht swap for his teamate P.Burgoyne..
Where’s he at at the moment? Had some stomper scores early on but hasnt quite gotten back into it after his suspension..
Hmmm..
Not sure. North dropped the Senior Burger’s scores with a forward tag, is that being done to him consistently?
He is definitely on my list of possible Chad trades, along with Ellis, Mundy and Sam Fisher. I figure all are capable of averaging 90+ for the rest of the season for a reasonable price.
Who knew TOM SWIFT was so cool…
http://www.aintitcool.com/node/41265
Hahahahaha! That phone call was a crack up!
The big Q Tip looks more like that Silas from Heros I reckon. On Heros, Maybe that Hayden panitierre could get a gig as the next Princess leia (The cheerleader bombshell!).
Thoughts?
@discomute
coughlan is definately going to play this week. he wasnt chosen last week because subis just too big for him and theyre trying to not get him injured afterall
@ Mike Oxbig
Don’t look at Chad’s BE of 153. He proved earlier this year that when fit, he is capable of big numbers. If fit, he is a keeper in defense. A BE is really only relevant with ur cash cows for offloading purposes.
Either you think Chad will come back in 4 weeks or so and return to his early-season form, or you think he’ll take over six weeks as the noobs from Channel 7 news are saying in Adelaide.
I’ve done pretty well I reckon with wookies so far for the year
Terrible decision to have Hentchsel from the start of the year, and followed up by another bad decision in getting Garlett who only rose $35,000 odd.
Rookie Trades
Robinson ($154k) for Hartlett ($138) = Good Trade
Walker ($167k) for Dowler ($132k) = Good Trade
Garlett ($120k) for Warren ($125k) = Good Trade
Hill ($251k) for Grimes ($186k)= GREAT trade
Lucas ($264k) for Sidebottom ($110k) = GREAT trade
Petrenko ($139k) for Greenwood ($86k) = not so good trade
With Muston to come in this week for Hartlett or Beams, that will leave with with $400k in the bank and 10 trades left
DT alright with me, DT is alright OH YEAH!
Robinson ($154k) for Hartlett ($138) = Good Trade
Walker ($167k) for Dowler ($132k) = Good Trade
Garlett ($120k) for Warren ($125k) = Good Trade
Using 3 trades for for 46k are all good trades? I think they are all duds
Granted Hartlett is a great player, all of those players you traded out are now higher in price. Could have made an extra 150k by holding onto them until now.
Why would you trade out rookies who are playing and rising in price??? (Walker/Robinson)
Especially with Walker who will prob get a lot of games this year due to Hentschel being injured.
I would have only traded one of those players if you were making 70k+ on them???
@ John Cobb
Yeah fair point mate. It’s hard to gauge, but with the club saying they’ll take the chance to fix up his nagging knee injury along with his calf, i wouldnt expect him to be right for a while.. you’d think 4-5 weeks minumum?
Who’s Kane going to kick it to now!? ..hehe
Any suggestions for some other options?
Also looking to go all out and get Goddard but downgrading to free up some cash is also tempting..
Ellis from Hawthorn maybe?
Im bringing in Muston by replacing Otten. it will give me roughly $500k in the bank to use over the rest of the season. Sounds good to me!
I also have Rich – so either way I keep one of Rich/Otten.
Just throwing another name out there, Milburn?
Bit risky on the injury front but here’s a guaranteed starter for a team that loves to rack it up!!!
Sub 300k due to his injury a couple of weeks ago.
Ok so Muston in is a no brainer…
Question: Beams or Barham? Who is more likely to play again?
Beams would have to be the biggest chance to play again!!
@ Mike Oxbig
Yeh the Cornes injury is a concern. Keep in mind that S Burgoyne was initially listed as a 4 week injury and is now looking at a total of at least 10 on the sidelines. I think Port Adelaide’s head doctor is the same guy who offers medical advice on a tressel table down an Adelaide alleyway.
When’s the next Alex Sweet DT? And is the new episode out today or tomorrow?
Muston = what his names says, he is a must and this years Dalziell.
Can someone please create a topic of “What to do with the Chad”. Im down to 8 trades with only 3k in the bank and have both hill and broughton on the bench so can cover him but if he is out for 6 then its not worth it and i can just get mackie instead.
Want to know what everyone else is doing.
Cheers
Thanks Warnie.
Neither have matured in price a cash cow but no point in holding onto Barham if he’s not going to get a game. I wish I could find their VFL stats online somewhere. Being from SA i can tell you the SANFL form but have no clue about the vics.
@ Orbs.
What to do with Chad is coming soon…
Most useless injury lists ever are up on afl.com. Seems like more and more clubs say “TBC” every week. Even clubs who have put up their lists have TBC for players we actually want to know about, like St Kilda for Sam Gilbert!
I would think that Gilbert and Broughton are probably the two most critical bits of injury news (besides Chad Cornes: and this is 4-6 from the club that gives us Shaun Burgoyne still 3-4 weeks away….), we got neither!
Good to see that Whitecross may not miss a game, though… I’d really like to see him get one final price rise in and then upgrade him next week.
Many people will probably wait a week or two and trade Chad for Bowden.
Ok Guys
Need to downgrade one of these three to Muston
Zaharakis,Hartlett or Rich
thoughts?
To quote Simone Black:
“I just give him the ball when he is near me. And why wouldn’t you give it to someone who can travel the ball forward in your direction 70m”
Rich is a keeper
You know i meant “Simon”.
Simone is my wife’s name (seriously).
She has a fantasy footy team too – I wouldn’t marry anyone who didn’t…..it was a pre requisite when i was “future wife shopping” back in the day.
Surely Chad is a straight swap for Mackie if you don’t have him already. Gun, will play all games, gets a ton every other week, bank $5k. Sorted.
Chad has to go. Seriously considering Ellis + 40k.
Wait.. you married Simon Black?
@Raf
Try http://www.injuryupdate.com
Much closer to the mark on injury diagnosis and time out in my humble opinion.
Make that http://www.injuryupdate.com.au
hey everyone
I need some help.
Who should I trade for muston?
Skippy, Rich or Coughlan?
@bill
gotta leave rich given last week and hartlett still has plenty of room so if you must id go zaharakis
@ John Cobb
I was initially talking about Peter Burgoyne as a replacement for Chad, not his brother..
There are actually quite a few different options for Chad now that i look into it a bit more..
By the way.. Who is this Duffield bloke? And why is he getting freakishly good scores!?!
@Oxbig, Duffield’s been one of Freo’s best this year running out of the back through mid. Racked up big scores tail end of last season and I’ve had him in from the start. Bizarrely dropped in rd 3 but will (should) hold his place now. Takes kick-outs as well and kicks to himself a lot before having a little run. Gold.
Cornes 4 Duffield
@fryzie
ha ha – simone black – has a nice ring to it but no, never had a man crush on the lions star. more of a super coach selection….. is this blasphemy??
the man crush is well and truly on joel selwood and any crows youngster. 3 Norwich’s this season already !
cornes OUT fisher or mundy IN – both experienced and durable. no more injuries please.
Ok Chook,
For starters I don’t know if I agree with you on the Princess Leia call, she was fucking smoking in that leather bikini thing in ROTJ.
Anyway this week I think I will be taking advantage of the Muston/Beams trade and then bringing in Saint Nick or Stevie J (if Riewoldt’s BE is still huge then I might leave him for another week).
Haven’t managed to cash in too many of the rookies as yet as they have been filling spots on the field for all my fucking injuries. Also had two wasted spots with Anthony in the mids and Hogan in the fwds. Thanks to the DT servers on 1st lock out.
Have cashed in Hill and Petrenko so far though and will cash in Brown for Ballantyne when he is ready.
As for the last part of your post, I think the rookies are definitely better this year, there has been heaps more of them cracking the ton or scoring in the 90’s than last year. Palmer and Morton are the only two from 08 that spring to mind readily. Heaps more value in the 09 draft.
Like always, a good read:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/78114/default.aspx
Sparlo… you can’t blame the servers on Liam Anthony. Maybe the Kangaroos footy dept. He was named on that first night… we only found out the next day, after lockout, that he had Stress Fractures.
@ Sparlo
Leather bikini or not, Natalie crushes the competition.
Agree on the goodness of this year’s crop. The clubs may be playing more rookies this year with player-poaching GC17 in the back of their minds.
@ hibbo
Chapman as a likely inclusion got me excited. I’d love to see Cheney back too, but can’t see there being room at the moment.