Wookiee week
We all know about the AFL’s indigenous round, its heritage round and even its women’s round, so it’s weird that the league’s rookie round has passed without the slightest bit of fanfare. It might not have been heavily publicised, but round 10 definitely belonged to the youngsters with four rookies rattling off 100s and another 20 cracking a half-century or better – an unprecedented result this season. Also unprecedented is the breakeven of Beau Muston, his -166 even more delicious than the one Bradd Dalziell baked last year.
The tremors from Muston’s earth-shatteringly good scores have been felt as far afield as the US, judging from a phone call I received this morning. Here’s the transcript.
Chook: Morning, Chook speaking.
George Lucas: Howdy champ, it’s Star Wars director George Lucas here.
Chook: The George Lucas. Thanks for putting Natalie Portman in those prequels, man. Getting rid of the original Princess Leia for Portman was like, um, like upgrading Jared Petrenko to a gold-rolled premo like Brendan Goddard.
George Lucas: If I’m picking up what you’re putting down, this Petrenko bloke must be a useless bastard. Anyway, I hear you’re the man to talk to about Wookiees?
Chook: Um, rookies? Yeah, maybe, although my mate Warnie is 21st in the world so he might be better to…
George Lucas: Listen, pal, I ain’t got all day. I’m trying to squeeze every last cent out of the Star Wars franchise so I’ve started casting for a third Ewok telemovie. I’ve got all my grandkids to play the Ewoks, but still need some Wookiees. I’m told there’s an outstanding Wookiee down under called Muston?
Chook: He’s an awesome rookie, but if it’s an actor you’re after, Steve Johnson would be your man.
George Lucas: Is he a Wookiee?
Chook: Er, no, but…
George Lucas: What about Fremantle and Adelaide? My man on the ground says they’ve got more Wookiees than they know what to do with.
I hung up about then, later kicking myself that I’d neglected to mention Quinten Lynch. Now there’s someone who’d pass as Chewbacca. The phone call got me thinking, though: if blokes like Lucas have heard about the rookie crop of 2009, are they a better bunch than the 2008 lot? I guess it’s too early to judge, with the first and second picks still to debut (although Jack Watts and Nick Naitanui are both chances this week), but have your say in the comments. How do Daniel Rich and Andy Otten stack up against the likes of Rhys Palmer and Craig Bird? Will any defenders rival Garrick Ibbotson’s outstanding DT efforts last year? Can Robin Nahas do a Cyril Rioli?
Anyway, on to round 10’s heroes and zeroes.
Three-or-more gamers
As I said in the opener, round 10 was a good’un for the rookies. Even serial stinker Matthew de Boer had a decent DT game, although he was easily overshadowed by teammate Greg Broughton in his third match at AFL level. Freo defender Broughton bagged 105 points in the loss to Richmond, shooting up $60,000 this week. Injury has been his nemesis thus far, and it struck again in the form of a third-quarter ankle injury, although Broughton returned to add another 20 points to his tally. I’d guess he’ll face a fitness test before being named again this week. Brisbane’s Daniel Rich rose significantly too, up $20k after cracking triple figures for the first time this year. He looks to be getting more time on the ball, meaning his scores will benefit, meaning he’s not as close to peaking as I thought, meaning I’m a bit pissed that I sold him last week. Andrew Collins was the third centurian in the three-or-more-gamer ranks, bettering his round-nine 92 with a 103 against Fremantle. His price leapt another $27,500 for a total change thus far of $170,000, making him the second-best bread winner this year behind Brendan Whitecross (up $201k). Don’t we all wish we were among the couple of thousand big-balled coaches who picked that unlikely pair at the start of the year. Forward duo Taylor Walker and Robin Nahas rebounded from poor scores in round nine with a 92 and 84 respectively, while blonde-haired Roo Ben Warren’s 83 was almost 20 points higher than his previous best. He’s got a BE of 10, Walker’s is 21 and Nahas’s is 56.
At the other end of the scale you’ll now find Jack Ziebell. The North Melbourne forward/midfielder has had back-to-back 50s after missing the club’s game against Geelong, chopping $5000 off his price and saddling him with a BE of 105. A corkie near the nutbag prevented Stephen Hill from contributing much in Freo’s defeat. His 42 points were well under his BE, resulting in the loss of $17 grand and a new BE of 64 – eight points above what he’s averaged this year. At least he’s got familiar company in the red zone with teammate Nic Suban (49 average, 61 BE) joining him. A 68-point game couldn’t drag Melbourne’s Jamie Bennell out of trouble, with his new BE of 56 still six points higher than what he’s averaged this season. Others to watch out for if recalled are Dayne Beams (avg 60, BE 66), Alex Rance (avg 62, BE 79) and Jared Petrenko (avg 42, BE 63).
Yeah, there are heaps of other rookies in this bracket who I haven’t mentioned, but I’m only tagging the blokes at the pointy ends – the ones who tore up the previous round and those in danger of haemorrhaging dough.
Two gamers
This is usually where I compare the respective strong suits of players on the brink of their first price rise as coaches try to determine which one or two from the bunch is worth bringing in. This week, though, unless we witness the return of a two-games-earlier-in-the-year type, like Nathan Grima (good in the VFL last week) or Jason Davenport, there’s just the one player to consider, Hawthorn’s Beau Muston. The question is not “which one?”, then but “will I or won’t I?” I will, simply because the rewards outweigh the risks. I wrote last week about Muston’s pros and cons, but a week’s a long time in football and the story has been edited a little. The main cons are Muston’s history with injury, namely three knee reconstructions (which hasn’t changed) and the potential stoush for selection at Hawthorn (which has changed). Injuries to another two teammates on the weekend have eased the pressure on Muston to hold his place. Also, B2 is currently playing at a level that surely makes him undroppable. In the pros box you have his points-earning potential, which he’s twice showed to be enormous, and his money-making potential which, if the big scores keep coming, will be equally as immense. Muston managed 106 in his second match, down from his first-up 127, but still mighty enough to manufacture a monstrous breakeven of -166. If he bags a flat 100 in his next match, his price will jump about $95,000 in one go. Even a 50 would see him soar more than $75k in a week. With that kind of reward and slightly improved job security, I can’t not bring him in. I expect there’ll be one or two others doing the same. Keep in mind, of course, that any money Muston makes will be irrelevant to coaches without sufficient trades to upgrade/downgrade him later in the piece; for those coaches, Muston can only be all about the points.
One gamers
Three rooks lost their league virginities on the weekend, and one was just 17. Hawthorn’s Luke Shiels bagged 70 points but won’t expect to find his name on the senior team sheet every week, regardless of how large his club’s casualty list grows. The same is true of Geelong’s Nathan Djerrkura, who picked up 58 points in the Cats’ walloping of Essendon. West Coast’s Tom Swift has a better chance of getting games, but he was fairly obscure in his 44-point performance on Friday night. His WAFL stats suggest he could come good. All three, for the record, can be picked in the midfield.
Happy trading. Oh, and remember to have your say on how this year’s rookies stack up against the class of ‘08.
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Is Liam Anthony a chance to play VFL at least this week, maybe back in AFL next week…?
Does anyone think if there is the slightest injury to ablett they might leave him out of the long flight to Perth???? Just throwing it out there LOL.
Same can be said for Chappy i guess
does anyone know whats happening with Alex Rance and Mark Coughlan
Will Alex Rance be right to play and/or be selected?
and has Mark Coughlan earned his place back into the side?
cheers
loki, Cogs was in Coburg’s best players so form isn’t an issue. Unfortunately, most of Richmond’s duds played well last week. I see Matt White is injured though, I can’t remember if he played last week but if he did then he’s out and Cogs is the obvious inclusion… saving him from turning into Muston on friday.
Lets not forget there is a split round in the next 4-6 weeks which will bring chads games missed down to 3-5.
@ Warnie
Cheers mate:) The what to do with chad conversation is surely to rage on all week. Not telling you how to run the site or anything but something such as possible trades would be awesome but possible trades for;
* If you have 100k in the bank
* Straight swaps or there abouts
* Downgrade options
+ some pros and cons on those trade options. Really pushing the friendship i know!
@ wce06
Rapt to see chappy is a huge chance of playing this week! Surely a plane ride wont stop the tough bugger from playing. After all his bone was sticking out his finger 2 weeks ago and he is raring to go.
@ Orbs.
The man who knows his shit is Roy. He is going to write up something asap with all of that stuff. He did a bit or research yesterday. So look out for it!! I can’t wait… need destROYs awesome advice! Always proves to be a winner!
Chad to (leaving out Enright, Fisher and Goddard)
X. Ellis, pocket 30k
Mackie, break even with cash spent
Lockyer-spend extra 20k
Bowden-Spend and extra approx. 15
Duffield, pocket 40k
Mundy, injury issues?
Adcock-make 30k
I have been considering Lockyer as they have Melbourne this week, what are peoples thoughts on Joel Bowden, has been stinking recently but it starting to be at the right price for anyone keen, will he turn it around? Duffield and Ellis are the two that are certain to go up in value. if i didnt have him id say Jed has to be a certainty, is back to his 07 form and is really cheap right now, look for him to go up to 400k within 3/4 weeks
Its Liam Shiels not Luke.
Of course it is, Dmac. Cheers, bro. The Wookiee talk must’ve got Luke Skywalker in my head. Or something.
@ Alex – My choice would be Lockyer. Bowden’s future isn’t certain with the new coach likely to play the kids.
Chook any thoughts of Clancee Pearce? This is slightly unusal in taking a rookie pre debut. But I think the risk could be worth it. I am looking for someone to save my backline a donut until Hodge comes back. With the way Freo are going he is a chance to play at least a few games. Would love to hear what you think of downgrading Raines to Pearce.
The other consideration is by doing this I can upgrade Travis Tuck to Bartel.
Cheers
@ redbull
Without knowing the rest of your team, I’d reckon downgrading Tuck to Muston and upgrading Raines would be a better option. Obviously depends on whether you’ve got better cover in the backs or mids, and how many premos you’ve got in each possie, too.
Speaking of rookies:
Assuming I downgrade Beams for Muston, I will have to choose two out of Rich, Whitecross and Muston to be on the ground. Which two?
I think Rich must have one of the spots. Whitecross has the consistency on the board, but it’s hard to go past Muston’s back to back hundreds when choosing the 2nd spot….
If Whitecross misses with injury, though, and Beams is back, then I’ll probably cash Whitecross for Muston instead and dodge the choice.
This week is dead set doing my head in! I need some serious help please with my double trade!!
I’m definitely trading down for Muston, going to get rid of either Masten or Beams. Now I want to get Gablett, I can trade either Kerr, Hocking or Rich. My thoughts are:
Kerr: he is a gun, but has been down most of the year, to release him at his lowest point isn’t very smart $ wise is it?
Hocking: he has really suprised me, he is reasonably consistant out of the three, wont set the world on fire but averaging 80 odd aint all bad.
Rich: as good as he is for a rook, is the time right? I know he scored 115 last week, but looking over his form all year we have quite a few 50/60’s which I don’t want for a keeper.
Masten: big mistake, sitting on my bench and just doesn’t live up to the hype!
Beams: will he ever come back? Is only worth 180k so not getting huge return.
I have 11 trades, will bring in Muston/Ablett this week, BUT WHO FOR? In a couple of weeks will see what happens to Fisher/Lockyer & Hodge, will bring one of those in for Chad & then with 8 trades, should be pretty settled for the year with trades for injuries.
Please help I’m struggling with this one!!
Chook thanks for that.
Just to explain further I already have Muston (traded him in for Barham) and until injury struck I thought my backs were set – Goddard, Lockyer, Adcock, Mackie, Hodge, C Cornes, Grimes & Broughton. So really upgrade options for Raines are somewhat limited. Basically I would just be replacing Raines with an untired rookie in Pearce, who just needs to score for the next few weeks. Raines thus far has proved to be a mistake.
By using Pearce as a way to get to Bartel my midfield would almost be set as well. Bartel, Swan, J Selwood, K Cornes, Gibbs & Coughlan with Muston and Anthony as the backups. The aim will be to upgrade Coughlan to Ablett or Hayes shortly. This will mean my team is basically set with 7 trades to cover any injuries or pick up any bargins!
My mids- Ablett, Dal Santo, S. Tuck, Selwood, Haselby, Rich (Cockie, Anthony)
I have 9 trades left, and am looking at trading Chad out and Muston in this week. Problem is, I don’t know who to trade to Muston… Rich smashed a ton last week and now has a BE of 23, trading him out would make me a nice 200k… Cockie should be back soon, has a BE of -5, trading him out would only net me 50k… and Anthony hasnt played obviously but should be in soon. ATM I’m leaning towards trading Rich out for Muston… What do you guys reckon? Worth the trade?
@Ike… I would be downgrading Masten or Beams, upgrading Kerr if I was in your position. At least Masten is playing on your bench for cover, Beams doesnt look like he’ll get another game anytime soon bar injuries. Hope that helps.
@ redbull
Can’t fault your logic, shagger. Pearce is a risk, as is anyone yet to debut, but there aren’t too many others options back there. Consider Grima, Pratt and Hurley, too. I realise Clancee saves you an extra $10k or, in the case of Hurley, about $50k.
@ Ike
Rich looks to be getting more time on the ball. I’d stick with him for a bit longer.
@ Chook/Matty D – thanks guys, you’ve given me some faith in Rich. I am going for the following trade;
Gablett/Muston IN
Kerr/Masten OUT
Hodgey coming back in has thrown a bit of a spanner into the works – was planning on Chad-Hodge in the weeks to come, does anyone know Hodges BE? My computer is too slow for all the calculators!!!