Welcome to the red zone
Let me introduce you to the red zone. It’s not a nice zone, like the end zone is for NFL wide receivers, or Timezone is for video game-loving teens. It’s gruesome and cruel, like a war zone, and three of our favourite rookies are already there.
Rookies enter the red zone when their breakeven for the coming round is higher than their average over the previous rounds. The writing on the wall for these players is simply: up your game, punk, or your price will start to plummet. I’m calling it the red zone, by the way, in honour of Grimlock’s outstanding FFGenie, which lists breakevens in red for players in the aforementioned predicament (see example in post).
Read more to find out which three-or-more gamers have crossed into the red zone, which two gamers are prime downgrade targets and which one gamers caught the eye in round five.
Three-or-more gamers
No one who watched Jared Petrenko struggle to shake a -1 for much of Sunday’s match against Melbourne will be surprised to hear that “Petstinko” is one of the first three rookies to find himself in the red zone. The Adelaide defender got to 12 in the end, but the damage was done. And the damage (I sound like a dodgy mechanic) is a breakeven of 56 for a player now averaging 46 points through his first five games. A couple of big-scoring games would, of course, force Petrenko’s breakeven back down, especially after his 12 drops out of calculations. Whether he gets a chance to do that will depend on Adelaide’s selection panel, which wouldn’t have been blown away by Petrenko’s performance and may have to fit in Chris Knights this week. I’m thinking Myke Cook is more likely to be omitted for the Showdown, however, meaning Petrenko will need to fire up if he’s to hang on to his $60,700 profit. He’s already dropped $1400.
Also in the red zone is fellow Crow Patrick Dangerfield, who’s less likely to suffer the selectors’ wrath than Petrenko, but just as likely to start losing DT dollars if he doesn’t make the statisticians sweat. Danger managed just 31 against the dastardly Demons, following on from a 39 that now gives him an average of 51 points per game but a breakeven of 61. Sydney ruckman Jesse White, like Petrenko, has already endured a price fall, losing $2900 after a couple of 30+ scores. He’s averaging 46 on the season, and 41 over his past three, but needs 58 against Richmond to hold his $171,300 price tag.
Just because you’re not yet in the red zone doesn’t mean you’re not playing with fire. I’m backing him to come good, but a couple of below par scores has Brisbane midfielder Daniel Rich staring down the barrel of a 62-point breakeven. We saw he was capable of that and much more in the first three weeks, but it’s been 64 and 50 (admittedly against the awe-inspiring Cats) in recent outings for Rich. Touted as a season-long seventh mid for many, he’ll need to bounce back to keep coaches from taking his $106,400 profit (to date) and hitting the shops. After all, Daniel Cross and Kane Cornes will soon be on special at all good DT stores soon.
Another Adelaide young’un, Taylor Walker, is another who’ll need a decent score this week to avoid a drop. He’s heads into round six with a BE of 50, a mark he’s exceeded only twice in five games and that includes a 51. He lacked time on ground against the Dees, but his spot looks secure with Trent Hentschel still sidelined and part-time forward Kurt Tippett backing Walker to play every game this year.
The rest of the three-or-more gamers have negative or easily makeable breakevens, including a -86 for Hawthorn’s Gary Moss after consecutive 120s. I’m not going to bang on about Moss as I’m too depressed I missed his price explosion ($134,900 rise with more to come). The 85 points produced by Richmond forward Robin Nahas last week gave some easily excitable blokes wood, (well, it made a mate of mine called Woody excited, at least), but I’m worried about his chances of hanging around very long in a team soon to welcome back Cousins, Raines, Richardson and Brown. Tigers teammate Alex Rance looks the goods, though, and is the most consistent rookie in this bracket, while North’s Jack Ziebell and Adelaide’s Andy Otten continue to impress.
Two gamers
Sadly, every rookie who played their second game in round five scored less on their sophomore outing than on debut, apart from Cook who could be on his way out anyway. Some were significantly worse, like Collingwood’s Jaxson Barham (122 in rd 4/53 in rd 5), while others were pretty consistent, like North Melbourne’s Ben Warren, (64/63), but all were examples of why it’s best to wait two weeks before jumping aboard a rookie bandwagon. (Newbie reminder: prices are only affected once a player has played thrice). If you’ve talked yourself into downgrading one of the red zoners above, then, you’ll be choosing between:
- Jaxson Barham (Coll mid, $86,600, BE -109, scores of 122, 53)
- Andrew Collins (Rich mid, $86,600, BE -67, 84, 49)
- Hamish Hartlett (Port mid, $138,600, BE -63, 95, 73)
- Ben Warren (Nth fwd, $86,600, BE -61, 64, 63)
- Beau Dowler (Haw fwd, $86,600, BE -40, 59, 47)
- Myke Cook (Adel mid, $86,600, BE -28, 45, 49)
- Kristin Thornton (Syd mid, $80,300, BE -11, 38, 34)
I’m hesitant to write off Dowler and Thornton, given the way Moss and Western Bulldogs tagger Liam Picken found form after starting with two lowly scores, but it’ll be the brave souls who back these two over Barham, Collins, Hartlett and Warren. Not that those four don’t have their drawbacks. Pubpork nabbed a NAB Rising Star nomination with his 122-point game in round four, but he’s attracted a lot of criticism for poor disposal in that and the dramatic Anzac Day loss to Essendon. This ain’t a stupid SuperCoach site, so we don’t normally worry about clangers and the like, but you can’t score DT points playing in the VFL and the Pies’ll need to make room for Shaw, Maxwell and possibly Didak. On the upside, Collingwood are only a few more loses away from playing kids pretty consistently for a fair chunk of the year, you’d think. Collins has shown a bit, but faces the same selection challenges listed for Nahas, plus crumbed goals have padded his scores a little and you can’t expect those every week. Hartlett has shown more than a bit, in fact he’s shown an awful lot, but there’ll be a squeeze for spots at Port too, and his high draft position means you effectively miss out on his first one or two price rises. That leaves Warren, who hasn’t scored as heavily as the previous players, but faces less selection worries, particularly after the round five injuries to Harvey and Hansen. Despite all that, the attractiveness of these guys as downgrade options will really come down to the make-up/needs of your team. Warren’s your man if you need a forward, while you’ll have to choose between the others if you’re in the market for a midfielder.
One gamers
Given the absence of defenders in the two-gamer category combined with Petrenko seemingly nearing his peak and Demon defender Kyle Cheney so far failing to force his way back into Melbourne’s best 22, it bodes well that a backman should score freely on debut in round five. North Melbourne’s Levi Greenwood bagged 70 points in his first AFL match and you’d think we’d all be wearing Levis soon as, at first glance, he appears the only downgrade target in the backline. Hopefully Fremantle’s Greg Broughton (ankle) and Essendon’s Michael Hurley (quad), both listed as tests this week, will be back soon to break Levi’s monopoly on cheap defenders.
Also debuting in round five were two forwards, Collingwood’s Brent Maccaffer (62 points) and Bulldog tall Jarrad Grant (22). Wait and see with these guys, given the press for places at Collingwood and Grant’s lacklustre first-up effort.
Are you dumping a red zoner this week? Who for? Bring the love and the loathing (but mostly the love 
) in the comments.
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hey,
these are my trades for the next two weeks, any help would be greatly appreciated:
this week:
out;harvey
in;franklin
next week:
out: t.cloke
in: young gun 86000
out skippy
in riewoldt
HELP WOULD BE VERY MUCH APPRECIATED
@ AWESOME
yeah, harvey for franklin is a good option, but you may also have to consider skippy for voldt this week, as voldt has b/e of 71 and at his current form is likely to jump a lot in price.
DALZIELL OUT FOR A MAXIMUM OF SIX WEEKS NOW instead of the original 12+.
My god I’ve never been so happy to have resisted making trades early in the week. I always wait until the Friday and this kind of thing is exactly why you do that. Dazzle out for a max of 6 weeks… I can wait. I’ll save the trade.
just wondering peoples opinion on these two trades:
malceski > fisher/hodge/mackie???
and
t.tuck > hartlett
which will leave me with 208 K in the bank for kreuzer to cox next week
6 Weeks is along time to have a player sitting on the bench. Even if he gets back after 6 weeks he probably won’t be fully fit so his TOG would be reduced.
Thanks for the good news but i think i’ll be offloading him anyway.
Malceski – This guy hasn’t fired a shot but I wouldn’t be trading him out just yet. Surely you have other rookies in your team that you need to upgrade? Walker/Suban etc.
Makkie is a very cheep option at the moment. his role will change in the next few weeks and hopfully his scores will improve, been a little disapointing to date.
Who’s a good def to bring in for Hansen? Not much solid cheap buys in the backline atm. looking to downgrade and free up some cash.
My backs are:
Cornes, C Lockyer, T Houlihan, R
Hodge, L Newman, C Hansen, L
Hill, S Suban, N Raines, A
does anyone know if hartlett will keep his spot?
@ THE WALL
i plan to to that exact trade daziell to hartlett and upgrade a defender as i have petrenko and suban on the park until PBurg comes back in but even then will still have one of them on the park.
Hartlett in Daz out
@ricky
i hope so, im swapping hartlett for skippy.
@AWESOME
if i was you i would do those trades the other way round
this week:
out: t.cloke
in: young gun 86000
out skippy
in riewoldt
you can get Warren or Dowler at that price this week only, less options next week and riewoldt’s BE is very low will almost definately increase in value again
next week:
out;harvey
in;franklin
franklin has a resonably high break even again, you will more than likely save a few dollars from your cap by waiting a week on this trade anyway
Yeqah I’m looking at trading out petrenko, but I already have Rance & Broughton.
I’m thinking of taking a punt on Petrenko scoring reasonably and not getting dropped this week and waiting to see how Levis go.
Maybe M-Rob to Ben Warren, but it seems a lot of people might be doing that…
thanks fred will definately consider that
so u reckon dowler or warren are the way to go?
either way they will probly just be in my reserves list for the rest of the year
but i dont think i will be able to do it in that order because it would mean i would hav to play:
ziebell
walker
brown
in my forward line this week
Hey Boys,
Hope all of your teams went well.
Just got a decision i need someones help, i dont have skippy, do you think its worth getting him once hes fit or should i go for some one like j. reiwoldt?
Very Little Mention here about Grimes after his game in the VFL this week…………………….
At Jacko, its to late to get Skippy, he has made money already, you either have him from the start or you do not have him
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/75896/default.aspx
Razzle Dazzle available in 4-6 meaning he could be back depending on how he heals in more likely 5-7 weeks. ill still be trading him out for hartlett to free up cash cos we have no real experience with dalziells recovery time and id prefer to spend my money elsewhere on mackie or hodge
You ask a lot of questions Leigh.
@ jacko
Times gone with Skippy, made his money and now injury concerns.
Have you considered Aaron Edwards from the Kangaroos??? If u are after a mid priced forward he looks like a good option!!! Costs $213,600 and got 84pts first up. Has been out for discipline reasons of late NOT injuries.
Will play regularly and should score well enough to pick up 80-100K in value.
Just a thought!!!
Huh?
im trading out dazzler this week
was thinking dalsanto or gibbs??
any thoughts?
Robinson : OUT
Barham: IN
Dalzeill: OUT
DalSanto/Gibbs: IN
am i crazy?
or should i do
OUT: T. TUCK
IN: HARTLETT
OUT: Dalzeil
IN: G. ABBLETT
Dunno if hartlett is a definate starter. Got Rich starting also….and beams and robbo on the bench
whatdoyareckonmang?
im torn between trading travis tuck or hasleby. with BE around 100, they both look like they will struggle.
and by dropping them for a 2nd gamer, it will free up funds to get riewoldt in the forward line which would be a handy addition.
Hi guys, is this a reasonable trade or should i be trying to conserve. At the moment ive got 16 trades left so this would take me down to 14 for the season.
Skipworth –> Warren
Rhys Palmer (inj) –> Ablett
thoughts? i could bench palmer for a week or two as i have cover with rich/beams.
for those thinking of trading petrenko or walker, I think Neil Craig plans to play a few rookies this week, to see how they handle pressure. Only crows change this week will be
out: Cook
In: Knights
Maric will do another week on the sidelines.
Why do I know this ? Because I am Neil Craig.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/75881/default.aspx
wow, I just totally made up that name and now some there is some terd image gravatar that doesnt look like me. where the hell did that come from ?
Unless someone else has “swine_flu” as a name ?
bizzzaro-world
swine_flu – it goes off the email you entered… if you make it up (ie. your 1234@hotmail.com) then it will use whatever that person who really owns the email’s gravatar.
be original dude!
@Tim
The “Magic Number” for break evens changes but I’ve just updated the DTTalk BE Calculator to 3986.4(thanks grimlock) which should be about right.
hey, i thought e-mails were supposed to be secret…not that 1234@ hotmail.com is my real address… sneaky, arent i.
I wonder if this will spawn a whole new sport. typing in random e-mails and seeing what picture comes up
Anyone think Hurley a bench rookie keeper when he plays? (in the same style as Rich as suggested by Chook)
@Chook – “under the radar” well said, happens every year. There will be more rookie Mids, don’t worry DTTalkers.
@stinkeye – haha, stat rat.
@Mike Oxbig – punt ON! With Blues, Esse, Freo, Melb, coming up Moss is a big show for good points. If Moss dies in the ass, then he’ll earn you 100k plus.
@rms – thanks for the blog post within a blog post! Skip could be a keeper, I think he has more cash to make.
@Boonta – sideways for sure. Set & forget your rucks!
does any think that paddy ryder will be a keeper this yr.
will he still play ruck if laycock comes back or will he go back 2 defence??
Possible double trade for me this week.
Rich – Hartlett
T.Tuck – Black
+$50,000 in the pocket.
Contemplating the Collins option instead of Hartlett. But even if Collins gets a game this week Hartlett looks entrenched in that 22.
Mids bench is currently Rich and Zaka. Is Collins worth the punt if playing? Does anyone know anything about the kid?
I’m also considering the Rich to Hartlett trade, get some more cash for that rainy day where everyone in your team either seems to be injured and/or suspended
Wouldnt be getting Rich out just yet, thinking of going for the Robinson to Hartlett, shouldve backed my judgement and not gone for Robinson…
Oh well, lesson learnt for next year and beyond
@ alec
Wouldn’t right Robbo off yet, in the best on the weekend and in contention for Johnson’s spot who is out with an injury. Probably between him and Hadley, who was also in the best. Would expect him to stay in top 2 or 3 to return if necessary although trading him depends on which individual you have in your team!!!
why would you trade dalziell to hartlett? apart from the obvious cash benefit, arent you trying to maximise your keepers? if you bought hartlett you would only be keeping him for 4-6 weeks before you would upgrade him again for a player like dalziell aka a gun. seems like a waste of a trade to me.. what about to coughlan however? there you could make the cash and coughlan was a keeper in 05/06 before his injury… too risky?
rookie players lyk hartlett have the potential of being around till they peak or even longer. he looks lyk an absolute gun of a money maker. ur freeing up lots and lots of cash to upgrade a useless rookie to a gun on the otherhand also.
moss? he was 75k but look at him now averaging 90 and named best afield.
i thought of downgrading to coughlan but i think hartletts gonna do just as good as him, isnt an injury concern and is gonna make more money.
Im considering doing the Robbo for Harlett trade also, obviously not a lot of money to be made straight away compare to bringing in someone like Barham .. but there should be more in the long run plus I secure a decent emergency player in my mids.
Yes, I have been thinking about rich -> coughlan. Wait a week obviously. I’d like hartlett but dont like the thought of trading robbo and making no money. My problem is I also have beams playing and robbo and anthony on the bench. Any thoughts as to the best way to go ?
Does anyone know hasleby’s BE? FF genie says 100 and fan footy is telling me something like 50 or so??
@Donut – yo do realise hartlett has already had a shoulder reconstruction so not sure about less risk than coughlan
is jonathan brown carrying a injury?? lot of rumors
is jonathan brown carrying a injury?? ppl have been telling me he is?
arrggh!… i’m so torn between whether to drop dalziell to moss purely for the cash benefit or opt for a proven performer around the 350k and above bracket so as have a keeper and not have to worry about rookie upgrades further down the track! damn it, i see the upside in both situations!!
I will have either 8 or 9 rookies on the field this week due to being decimated by injuries.:( Certainly taught me a lesson about trying to pick the more durable players.
Anyway this week the underperforming and injured Wells will be off to see uncle chop chop and Hartlett is in to the midfield to replace the injured Dalziell and Pestenko is off to chop as well with Hodge into the backline.
That gives me another week to think about what I am going to do about the Dalziell trade but it may be an upgrade to Bartel if I can scrape the cash together.
Then hopefully no more injuries for a while so I can save some trades for the end of the season.
I for one have done the Robinson to Hartlett trade.
CHOOK, I need major help this week.
I suffered both the Hille and Harvey injuries last week, which means I will need to trade them out shortly.
But I’m really keen on the Rich to Hartlett trade. Does everyone reckon he’ll hold his spot? I watched the Saints game, and he looked very good, but I’m worried he’ll suffer from a lack of TOG in that packed Power midfield.
I’m definitely trading HMac in this week, and can’t decide whether to trade Harvey or Rich out. I will cop a zero in my forwards if I keep Harvey, as Didak and Skipworth are on my bench injured.
I still have 18 trades, so should I pull the trigger on Rich to Hartlett? I could also use the money, I only have 61K in the bank.
@Macca09
I’ve given the Rich > Hartlett trade a fair bit of thought this week also.
The downside is that Rich hasnt peaked yet, holding onto him and trading him out later will probably make you and extra 50 grand + the extra to get Hartlett over an 86k rookie
The upside is Hartlett has big wraps on him and has shown he can play at the afl level. I think he is safely in the port 22 right now. He’s a player who i’d expect to pump out similar numbers to Rich dream team wise so your not giving up anything other than the trade.
tough call
with skippy injured, im stuck with two rookies on field in my forward line. so i want to trade him out for a premium.
but i dont know if i should do
tuck->hartlett
skippy -> stevie johnson (or someone close to the 400 000 mark)
or
tuck -> some 86600 2nd gamer (maybe collins or thorton? (i already have barham on the bench))
skippy -> riewoldt
this should hopefully leave me to grab bartel in the mid next week. but then this leaves me thinking that maybe i should wear the two rookies forward this week, get bartel this week and then get skippy out for johnson next week.
oh the possibilities. that definitely something dreamteam is never short of.