Let me introduce you to the red zone. It’s not a nice zone, like the end zone is for NFL wide receivers, or Timezone is for video game-loving teens. It’s gruesome and cruel, like a war zone, and three of our favourite rookies are already there.

Rookies enter the red zone when their breakeven for the coming round is higher than their average over the previous rounds. The writing on the wall for these players is simply: up your game, punk, or your price will start to plummet. I’m calling it the red zone, by the way, in honour of Grimlock’s outstanding FFGenie, which lists breakevens in red for players in the aforementioned predicament (see example in post).

Read more to find out which three-or-more gamers have crossed into the red zone, which two gamers are prime downgrade targets and which one gamers caught the eye in round five.

Three-or-more gamers

No one who watched Jared Petrenko struggle to shake a -1 for much of Sunday’s match against Melbourne will be surprised to hear that “Petstinko” is one of the first three rookies to find himself in the red zone.  The Adelaide defender got to 12 in the end, but the damage was done. And the damage (I sound like a dodgy mechanic) is a breakeven of 56 for a player now averaging 46 points through his first five games. A couple of big-scoring games would, of course, force Petrenko’s breakeven back down, especially after his 12 drops out of calculations. Whether he gets a chance to do that will depend on Adelaide’s selection panel, which wouldn’t have been blown away by Petrenko’s performance and may have to fit in Chris Knights this week. I’m thinking Myke Cook is more likely to be omitted for the Showdown, however, meaning Petrenko will need to fire up if he’s to hang on to his $60,700 profit. He’s already dropped $1400.

Also in the red zone is fellow Crow Patrick Dangerfield, who’s less likely to suffer the selectors’ wrath than Petrenko, but just as likely to start losing DT dollars if he doesn’t make the statisticians sweat. Danger managed just 31 against the dastardly Demons, following on from a 39 that now gives him an average of 51 points per game but a breakeven of 61. Sydney ruckman Jesse White, like Petrenko, has already endured a price fall, losing $2900 after a couple of 30+ scores. He’s averaging 46 on the season, and 41 over his past three, but needs 58 against Richmond to hold his $171,300 price tag.

Just because you’re not yet in the red zone doesn’t mean you’re not playing with fire. I’m backing him to come good, but a couple of below par scores has Brisbane midfielder Daniel Rich staring down the barrel of a 62-point breakeven. We saw he was capable of that and much more in the first three weeks, but it’s been 64 and 50 (admittedly against the awe-inspiring Cats) in recent outings for Rich. Touted as a season-long seventh mid for many, he’ll need to bounce back to keep coaches from taking his $106,400 profit (to date) and hitting the shops. After all, Daniel Cross and Kane Cornes will soon be on special at all good DT stores soon.

Another Adelaide young’un, Taylor Walker, is another who’ll need a decent score this week to avoid a drop. He’s heads into round six with a BE of 50, a mark he’s exceeded only twice in five games and that includes a 51. He lacked time on ground against the Dees, but his spot looks secure with Trent Hentschel still sidelined and part-time forward Kurt Tippett backing Walker to play every game this year.

The rest of the three-or-more gamers have negative or easily makeable breakevens, including a -86 for Hawthorn’s Gary Moss after consecutive 120s. I’m not going to bang on about Moss as I’m too depressed I missed his price explosion ($134,900 rise with more to come). The 85 points produced by Richmond forward Robin Nahas last week gave some easily excitable blokes wood, (well, it made a mate of mine called Woody excited, at least), but I’m worried about his chances of hanging around very long in a team soon to welcome back Cousins, Raines, Richardson and Brown. Tigers teammate Alex Rance looks the goods, though, and is the most consistent rookie in this bracket, while North’s Jack Ziebell and Adelaide’s Andy Otten continue to impress.

Two gamers

Sadly, every rookie who played their second game in round five scored less on their sophomore outing than on debut, apart from Cook who could be on his way out anyway. Some were significantly worse, like Collingwood’s Jaxson Barham (122 in rd 4/53 in rd 5), while others were pretty consistent, like North Melbourne’s Ben Warren, (64/63), but all were examples of why it’s best to wait two weeks before jumping aboard a rookie bandwagon. (Newbie reminder: prices are only affected once a player has played thrice). If you’ve talked yourself into downgrading one of the red zoners above, then, you’ll be choosing between:

• Jaxson Barham (Coll mid, $86,600, BE -109, scores of 122, 53)
• Andrew Collins (Rich mid, $86,600, BE -67, 84, 49)
• Hamish Hartlett (Port mid, $138,600, BE -63, 95, 73)
• Ben Warren (Nth fwd, $86,600, BE -61, 64, 63)
• Beau Dowler (Haw fwd, $86,600, BE -40, 59, 47)
• Myke Cook (Adel mid, $86,600, BE -28, 45, 49)
• Kristin Thornton (Syd mid, $80,300, BE -11, 38, 34)

I’m hesitant to write off Dowler and Thornton, given the way Moss and Western Bulldogs tagger Liam Picken found form after starting with two lowly scores, but it’ll be the brave souls who back these two over Barham, Collins, Hartlett and Warren. Not that those four don’t have their drawbacks. Pubpork nabbed a NAB Rising Star nomination with his 122-point game in round four, but he’s attracted a lot of criticism for poor disposal in that and the dramatic Anzac Day loss to Essendon. This ain’t a stupid SuperCoach site, so we don’t normally worry about clangers and the like, but you can’t score DT points playing in the VFL and the Pies’ll need to make room for Shaw, Maxwell and possibly Didak. On the upside, Collingwood are only a few more loses away from playing kids pretty consistently for a fair chunk of the year, you’d think. Collins has shown a bit, but faces the same selection challenges listed for Nahas, plus crumbed goals have padded his scores a little and you can’t expect those every week. Hartlett has shown more than a bit, in fact he’s shown an awful lot, but there’ll be a squeeze for spots at Port too, and his high draft position means you effectively miss out on his first one or two price rises. That leaves Warren, who hasn’t scored as heavily as the previous players, but faces less selection worries, particularly after the round five injuries to Harvey and Hansen. Despite all that, the attractiveness of these guys as downgrade options will really come down to the make-up/needs of your team. Warren’s your man if you need a forward, while you’ll have to choose between the others if you’re in the market for a midfielder.

One gamers

Given the absence of defenders in the two-gamer category combined with Petrenko seemingly nearing his peak and Demon defender Kyle Cheney so far failing to force his way back into Melbourne’s best 22, it bodes well that a backman should score freely on debut in round five. North Melbourne’s Levi Greenwood bagged 70 points in his first AFL match and you’d think we’d all be wearing Levis soon as, at first glance, he appears the only downgrade target in the backline. Hopefully Fremantle’s Greg Broughton (ankle) and Essendon’s Michael Hurley (quad), both listed as tests this week, will be back soon to break Levi’s monopoly on cheap defenders.

Also debuting in round five were two forwards, Collingwood’s Brent Maccaffer (62 points) and Bulldog tall Jarrad Grant (22). Wait and see with these guys, given the press for places at Collingwood and Grant’s lacklustre first-up effort.

Are you dumping a red zoner this week? Who for? Bring the love and the loathing (but mostly the love ) in the comments.