Beams me up, Scotty
If the worst Chook’s Rooks headline of all time hasn’t put you off, read on to see who joined Dayne Beams on a rookie riot in round three.
Now that the prices have started to shift, we’ll categorise the rooks by the number of games they’ve played: the three gamers are the ones you’ll want to sell off for a (potentially) tasty profit in the coming weeks, the two gamers are on the brink of their first price rise and ripe for the picking, while the one gamers are simply under surveillance.
Three gamers
There’s not much excitement in the three-gamer category at this stage, given it’s too early to trade them in and, in most cases, too late to get on board the bandwagon. It won’t be long, though, and these boys’ breakevens will be crucial to judging whether your cash cows have peaked or need more time in the paddock.
The first rookie payments have been doled out, with midfield-listed Daniel Rich, Mitch Robinson and, out of nowhere, Brendan Whitecross, bagging the big bucks. Rich defied Sydney’s DT suffocation syndrome to scoop 84 points and enjoy a $59,300 price rise, with Simon Black copping the Brett Kirk tag. At this rate, Rich won’t reach his peak until he hits $350k. Robinson jumped $54,500 despite his mediocre 48-point effort. He won’t continue to apprecate in value anywhere near as rapidly as that unless he rediscovers his high-scoring form from rounds one and two. In direct contrast to Robinson, Whitecross went under the radar with a pair of 50s before busting out a 110 in round three. The seemingly imminent return of several senior Hawks had me steering clear of Hawthorn rookies this year, but they’re getting hurt faster than they’re healing so this strategy may need a rethink. If you think Whitecross has done his dash (he’s up to $140,400 now), then you might want to consider teammate Gary Moss, but more about him in the two-gamer category.
Other three-game midfielders to enjoy big jumps included Carlton tagger Aaron Joseph and Adelaide pair Andy Otten and Patrick Dangerfield. All three rose by $35-45k, but Andy 3000 has impressed me the most with consistent scores around the 70-mark. Like teammates Sam Jacobs and Jeffery Garlett, Joseph could be made a scapegoat of the Blues’ first loss this season, so check the teams on Thursday. Carlton does have some of it’s 2008 regulars to return, after all.
Demons midfield duo Neville Jetta and Jamie Bennell have also brought up three games, but pedestrian averages of 45 and 39 respectively resulted in pretty paltry profits for their owners. If those sort of scores continue, these two will top out fairly quickly at around $160-180k.
In defence, Kyle Cheney and Jared Petrenko jumped more than $40k after round-three scores in the 50s. They’ll continue to rise for a few weeks yet, unless they’re cut down at the selection table as neither has cemented a spot in their team just yet. Docker Nic Suban was the next best in defence, rising $27,400 after a 51 against Adelaide. Hawthorn’s Ryan Schoenmakers was bumped up by only $12k, but his first-round horror score of 14 will drop out of calculations this week, giving him the chance to start improving his bank balance. Fremantle’s Stephen Hill started slowly but finally pulled his finger out, literally, ending round three with a 73 after managing just 51 points in total over the first two rounds. There’s talk of the dislocated digit forcing him to sit out this week, but I’d say he’ll be given the chance to try to beat his new breakeven of 21.
Of the four forwards who’ve now played three games, Adelaide’s Taylor Walker was the biggest earner, jumping $38,300. The former one-quarter wonder turned it on in terms two and four this time, grabbing an impressive 85 points against Fremantle and a breakeven of -40 for round four. Jack Ziebell and Jeffery Garlett both jumped $34k after serviceable performances throughout the first three rounds. West Coast’s Mitch Brown made a little less – $28k – but recorded a season-best 65 in round three, despite a knee complaint keeping him sidelined for much of quarters two and three.
Sam Jacobs and Jesse White are the only cheap-as-chips rucks to have got a guernsey in all three rounds to date. Both have averaged a touch over 50, but Jacobs has made more money – $35k to White’s $20k – due to his lower starting price. The concern over Jacobs, as I mentioned earlier, is that he’ll lose his place to Shaun Hampson as the Blues look to make ammends for their Saturday night loss.
Two gamers
This is Temptation Town – the place you’ll find the kids on the verge of their first, and often biggest, price rise. The population this week is a healthy nine, with a few all-star citizens in Dayne Beams, David Zaharakis and Alex Rance. As a high-scoring, goal-kicking midfielder, Beams will draw DT comparisons with last year’s standout, Rhys Palmer, who also debuted in round two, incidentally. The major difference is likely to be game time, with Palmer given the opportunity to play almost all of Fremantle’s matches, whereas Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse is more likely to rest his young charge for periods throughout the season. At this stage, though, that’s mere speculation and Beams and his breakeven of -113 look too good to ignore. What most impressed was Beams’ ability to score big (84) against quality opposition (Geelong), something Zaharakis proved unable to do. Zaharakis was noticeably less noticeable against a better side, following up his 107 against Fremantle with a 58 against Carlton. Also counting against Dizzee Rascal is the noise coming out of Essendon about competition being tight for places in the first 22. Check Thursday’s teams before bringing him in, then. He won’t make quite as much cash, but there’s a little more security around Rance, I reckon. Plus he’s in defence, where good cows are less-often sighted. Rance has a breakeven of -86 and will rise by bout $60k this week if he plays and gets another 70, like he has in rounds one and two. Your other two gamers are less tempting, but here’s the lowdown if you’re desperate.
- Gary Moss (mid, $75,300, avg 58, b/e -60)
- Darcy Daniher (fwd, $116,800, avg 66, b/e -45)
- Liam Picken (mid, $75,300, avg 46, b/e -36)
- Angus Graham (ruc, $86,600, avg 46, b/e -27)
- Brett Meredith (mid, $86,600, avg 45, b/e -25)
- Jake Spencer (ruc, $75,300, avg 39.5, b/e -23)
Notes: Spencer didn’t play round three, so will have to force his way back in to the Demons side before he’ll see y cash. Suspension could stall Bulldogs tagger Picken. Injuries at Hawthorn could help Moss, but a lack of them at Essendon could hinder Daniher.
One gamers
There were just the three 2009 debutants in round three, Greg Broughton (61), Spencer’s replacement John Meesen (58) and Port speedster Wade Thompson (31). We’ll hear more about them next week if they enter two-game territory.
Thanks to all those clever peeps who had a crack at nicknaming the rooks on the weekend. I’ll definitely be dropping some of those into posts throughout the year.
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I’mn keeping anthony as i think those two trades will be crucial in the end. By doing this i will have 2 extra trades minus about 120k that zaha makes which is risky anyway because ei think he will get dropped. Also by not having to cull so many rookies between rounds 5 and 8 i will be able to pick up more premiums when my skippys,raines,ziebells and krakouers prices have peaked. I will also be able to choose when to pick up the underachieving premiums when there prices are cheap.
I think it just comes down to logic. your much better off with 2 extra trades than 120k to spend at the wrong time!
might keep Anthony instead of trading for Zaharakis, hes gonna go good (when he gets a game), he was straight in the side in round 1 so fuckface must like him, just wonder how long till hes looked at as debuting plus i have Robinson as emergency if anything happens so im in no panic about a zero, plus it burns a trade
Keeping Anthony. Trading Knights for Beams this week. Reckon he’s a safer play than Zaharakis.
Callan Ward > Beams or if Tucky’s bad Tuck > Beams
Definitely trading Matt Rosa out this week for either Beams or Z (Yes I realise it was a terrible idea to have Rosa)
and considering trading Raines down to Rance, Rance seems like he has similar scoring potential to Raines and should keep his spot long enough to make some money + the money from the downgrade
who is the best to trade in out of
symes, gilbee or gram
Gram or Symes i’d say i don’t believe the hype around Gilbee. No doubting the blokes talent but good teams will tag him or run through his player.
Gilbee!!!!
has anyone heard anything about jack ziebells injury?
is he likely to be fit to play this week?
who should i get, Dick or Thomson
Im downgrading Hentschel
@ hatz
Gilbee, closely followed by Gram…..Symes a distant 3rd!!!!
Hi All..
My 2c on the Anthony trading debate –
I decided to trade him out on the basis that he wont achieve a price rise for ages..
Remember you only really want him the week of a Price rise.
I think he would be at least 3 weeks away from playing, which he would have to go through the VFL. He would have to spend 2 weeks+ in the VFL to gain match fitness.. Assuming his form then warrants selection, he can play for 2 weeks in the AFL and then if his form in the AFL is good enough you would need to pick him up to get in before the price rises.
So under these assumptions his price rise wont occur for at least another 7 weeks..
By this time we will be screaming to cash in on some of our peaking Mid Rooks like Beams/Mitch or Rich – He seems to be one of the only gun mids who will be a good downgrade target by then..
I agree with you CrowEater Pride,
I was thinking of trading Robinson around the round 8ish which is about the time anthony will be about to go up in price.
I have Ottens, Rich , Robinson and beams as my mid rooks.
I am in a bit of an injury crisis and would love peoples feedback. I need to get rid of leunberger as he is my starting second ruckmen (behind cox). He is worth 190k, i have 35k in the bank, so 235k to play with which can be me nothing good in the ruck department.
I was thinking of downgrading heath hocking (just picked him up before price rise, but i think he will starve now due to less onball time with mcveigh returning) for zaharkis or someone similar (have beams). That would leave me with 400k and my choice at any ruckmen?
Is the 2 trades and downgarde to a rookie worth it to get my hands on jolly? Keep in mind leunberger at season starts was always one of my i want this player our sort of players!
i have 8 rookies with negative break evens this week and broughton and anthony, why waste trades on anthony when cash isn’t a problem.
@ Chestaa
I tend to agree with your thought, carlton have turned into the new sydney this year and all scores v carlton have been low.
Carlton are still a top 8 side. I remember in past seasons when carlton was on the bottom and ess were in the eight and ess were always fav but carlton would come out and beat them. However ess have won the last 4 v carlton and carlton have been fav at least 3 out of the 4. Looks like the trend has changed.
Look for carlton to hit back hard this week against the DT dread team of syd ‘old v new’ !
Zman kicks into 50 will keep him in for awhile yet . The likes of jetta, dyson and myers will be dropped from ess before the Zman IMO.
my 2c
BTW, loved the video you did for the NMFC players Chook!
I’m all over this trade.
Will Davenport actually get a game???
Thinking of trading him for Zaharakis because I’ve already got Robinson, Rich and Beams. Should I save the trade, though?
Help please!
i dont think davenport is too far away… port r shit. and he is 1st emergency – hold that!
I’m still having trouble walking after the Kangas episode, Disco.
Yeah, second that, Warnie. Port’s strength is their midfield, which makes it tougher for someone like Davenport compared to say a Wade Thompson, but I reckon he’ll be given a go soon.