DEFENDERS
Gavin Urquhart enjoyed a price rise last week going up 40k, but still has a negative break even of -22 and averaging 60. Ryan Hargrave from the Bulldogs has had a solid month and now has a BE of -2. Callan Ward is a possible downgrade target in the back or mids. He has put up a 49 and a 59 in his first 2 weeks and has a BE of -45. Andrew McLeod returned a much better score of 81 this week after dropping to 230k. He has a BE this week of 43.
MIDFIELDERS
Ben Davis put up a 92 last week after 43 in his first game to give him a BE of -35 this week. Marc Murphy from Carlton has had a great DT year, has a low BE of 32 for anyone interested in him.
FORWARDS
Jarryd Morton has been sensational for people that picked him up. Went up 36k this week and still have a negative BE (-3). Forward pick of the year (sorry vt, but Medhurst sucks) Bernie Vince also has a negative break even -3 after 117 and 125 in the past fortnight. At the other end of the scale Alan Didak has his lowest score for the season last week with 44 which means his BE is 159. Anyone interested in picking up Didak could be best served to wait a couple of weeks as his price will surely fall.
A link with all the Break Evens for Round 13 is now available.
Defenders | Midfielders | Forwards | Rucks
Good review guys! Hargrave is the interesting one for me. I have four trades left and so cash cows are out for me, but can Hargrave out score Ellis for the rest of the year enough to leave me with 3 trades?
Hmmmm………
Molly
great post chad!
thanks guys, Hargrave has been great recently, but like you Molly i have bugger all trades left (3) so i am only covering injuries from now.
I did take a gamble on McLeod though 232k was too good to ignore. happy with the 81 so far, his problem is no marks, always handball receives so he needs 25-30 touches to get a score of 80. Had a season high 7 marks last week, but only averages 3 marks per game. Used the cash to upgrade Geary to G Ablett so hopefully Ablett will do in the second half what he did in the first half
Hi guys,
Have a backline of -
H.Shaw, Johncock, Roughead, Gilbee, McPhee, Ellis, Ibbotson (Taylor, SD.Thompson)
Enough money to upgrade any of the defenders.
Thinking CCornes, Bock. Leaning towards Bock.
Should I trade Ellis or Ibbotson?
Also, anyone doing PDT maybe have a look if Guerra is available in the draft pool. Coming back from injury, could certainly get you good scores in the second half of the year going into finals.
You’re right Chad, Medhurst sucks… paying $240k for a top 10 forward is totally lame
Haha, thanks Warnie about the Palmer advice. Only problem is that I’ve only got 4 trades left. Palmer’s BE is only 53 so would you wait for a week and hopefully get Priddis or would you trade him this week for Hodge?
Cheers
Or I could trade Taylor to Ward and upgrade Palmer to Swan or Ibbo to Mackie. That would leave me with 2 trades but all my reserves play (Vince, Cotchin, Kreuzer and Ward). Any advice?
Ward looks good on paper and on the field BUT with West coming back in 2 weeks (or 1) will he hold his spot? Also Higgins is due back by rd 16. Doggies supporters love him. He looks like a future gun but if no other injuries occur at the Western Welfare then I would presume Ward might play until West comes in.
Will he be top 10 when it matters Dan? (rounds 18-22). He has been great this year, but not sure if he will be a top 7 forward. BJ and JB will run him over.
Has anyone else heard that Sam Mitchell is playing with busted ribs?
Great work Chad, love the price check! Break evens are great as well!
Desperately looking to upgrade Tippet.
Going to trade out Logan for Ward & then Tippet to either BJ or Chapman.
I’m thinking BJ, any suggestions please?
Are there any 1 gamers who will be better then Ward? Cheers
We will see won’t we…
we can only judge by history not reading tea leaves to see the future - with the facts at hand, he was a good value investment.
DT isn’t about highest averages (although that is nice when it is top 10), it is about getting the best price:average ratio for your money.
At their lowest prices with their current averages:
P Medhurst ($240k av91.91) Ratio: $2595/pt
J Brown ($287k av87.42) Ratio: $3099/pt
B Johnson ($316k av92.73) Ratio: $3604/pt
JB will need to get his avg to 110 to match Medhurst current value
BJ will need to get his avg to 121 to match Medhurst current value
At $2595/pt he was a bargain
Dan.
can use numbers to prove anything though Dan,
Rioli 83500 av 69.42 Ratio $1201/pt
Vince 168000 av 81 Ratio $2074/pt
I guess my line of thinking is, is medhurst someone you will keep all year? if not, is it better to get someone like rioli since you will be using a trade anyway and obviously a better ratio.
hmm, is dan mathman??
royman awaaaaayyyyyyy
looking at rioli to Lucas cost will be $34k???? any opinions on lucas will he get back to his 90avg of last year??
uh… except that I actually agree with you that Rioli and Vince were bargains for the amount of $/pt they gave you
Medhurst is making enough to be a keeper at the moment
Dan.
p.s., maybe MathMan could help factor Standard Deviation into the ratio to help punish inconsistency
TTTraviv Lucas has lost 100k and looks nice at 288k. Last week put up an 80, but his BE is 86 this week, so personally i would wait another week and see how Lucas goes.
Ruck price checks probably the most interesting of all to those of us with McIntosh. It might even be worth waiting a week if you have a reasonable bench ruck and you want to save cash:
* Cox will almost certainly go down (if you don’t already have him). If he plays like the last two weeks, down by at least 25k. If he plays like a DT champ again, probably not by much (and you’d hate yourself for missing all those points!).
* White will probably go down a little but could even go up a little
* Hille will go up
* Sandilands will go down significantly
* Ottens will go down significantly.
* Jolly will go down significantly.
* Simmonds and C Cloke will probably both go up.
Obviously there’s no point waiting for Hille or the lower-cost guys like Simmonds and Cloke and it’s arguable whether there’s any point waiting for White or Cox. If you’re going to any of those guys, do it now.
There’s an argument that waiting a week on Sandilands could save some significant dosh in exchange for the difference between what 211 scores and what Kreuzer/Leuenberger etc scores.
That week will also see Brad Ottens drop in price and gain match fitness. If Ottens regains ‘07 form, you want to be on him, so waiting gives an extra week to scope him out.
Oh, and while Rioli and Vince were good investments, so was Medhurst. Medhurst with the added bonus of looking like a keeper.
The other thing is that you need to calculate those ratios based on when people got on board or got off-board. When the time comes to work out the year’s best cash cows, take Josh Hill’s ratio after round 6-ish rather than his end of season ratio for a more accurate picture
hey guys i have judd,dal santo,goodwin,ablett,black and stevens in my midfield im really tempted to pick up sam mitchell this week or the next. what does everyone think about that? worth it? i would probley downgrade judd or dal santo.
I’m thinking this week:
Gram => McLeod
Palmer => Corey
Thoughts?
Dylan,
I was looking at Sam Mitchell myself, but seems injured or badly out of form. If his kick/handball ratio was better generally, he might be worth considering, however give some thought to Montagna if you can afford him. DT Gun when firing and gets a good % of kicks & marks.
wow i like both of ur trade options i would take them both.
gram to mcleod is a sideways trade
and whilst corey is clearly way better than palmer..the kids a gun and personally i would keep him.(i have him)
Out: Ibbo and Palmer
In: Drummond and Gablett
Drummo is injury prone, but is a consistent 90+ scorer if he gets on the park. As he has played a few ‘half games’ due to getting injured during the match, his price has dropped heaps. Scores in his last 3 weeks of 104, 48 (off injured), 103 means he is ripe for the plucking.
Any comments???
Wallcob,
While Gram to McLeod is somewhat sideways, I think based on potential McLeod could average 10-20 more points + it makes me $70k which is enough to make Palmer into a gun (Also Gram may be dropped based on St Kilda falling out of finals contention whereas McLeod is a certain starter provided he is fit). While I rate Palmer very highly, I have one eye on the finals and believe he may start to struggle toward the end of the H&A season, whereas Corey should be firing.
Ralph Wiggum,
Great trades, although I assume you must have a fair bit of cash in the bank to be able to make them. If you want to save the cash to work on other areas then maybe look at Ibbotson for McLeod and Palmer for Corey/Bartel, similiar to what I am doing.
kenrosewal,
My team is settles, and after the two trades I mentioned i have no other players to upgrade. I have been lucky in that a lot of the players I have had since the start have improved heaps so I havent needed to upgrade them, guys like Burton, Didak, Porplyzia and to a lesser extent guys like McLean and Salopek have done well for me.
I already have Corey in my midfield, and have the cash to get Ablett. If Brady Rawlings, one of the best taggers in the comp cant stop him from scoring 140, then presumably nobody is.
How many trades left Ralph? I have 11 left.
I have 7 left and $214k spare in the bank
Oh and I still have Rioli to cash in, which I will do once a decent forward option is available, or I’ll leave Rioli until finals time, then use that cash to get whoever I need.
yer fair point there ken. however i dont beleive that gram will be dropped…when hes not racking up the points DT wise, the saints have been giving him negating roles. hopwever recently they have given him back his more common role of racking the possies up off half back.
Going pretty well then if your team will be settled after two more. I have 7 players left in the gun in order to get my dream team: Palmer, Gram, Stevens, Ibbotson, Ellis, Rioli & Dew. I will probably keep Ibbotson & Ellis due to the lack of quality backs atm, and one of Palmer or Stevens will stay for the year, as will most likely one of Rioli or Dew at this stage. I want to leave plenty of trades for injuries in finals time.
Who would you prefer?
Stevens or Palmer +$30k
Rioli or Dew + $50k
Are you a saints fan wallcob? While I haven’t seen much of them this year, Gram has been very frustrating DT wise, and therefore I am keen to cash in while his price is pretty high and McLeod has appeared to bottom out. What do you think Gram will average for the remainder of the season?
Prefer Stevens or Palmer + $30k.
Ken I wouldnt trade Gram as his last 3 weeks have been pretty impressive as per wallcobs comments above. I would also keep Stevens until finals time, if not for the whole year. he may have had 2 bad weeks, buit he was worth over $400k a few weeks ago.
My team is in top 1000 nationally so its going OK.
Backs are: Burgoyne, Drummond, H Shaw, S Fisher, Gram, Kennelly, Johncock
Mids: Ablett, Corey, Hayes, Salopek, mcLean, Stevens
Rucks: Cox, Simmonds
Fwds: Didak, Franklin, Riewoldt, Burton, Porplyzia, J Brown, O’Keefe
Very solid team Ralph. I’m coming about 800ish and my team is:
Backs: Cornes, H Shaw, Mackie, Goddard, Ellis, Gram, Ibbotson (Myers & Hansen)
Mids: Thompson, Cross, Swan, Stevens, Hodge, Palmer (McNamara & Bird)
Rucks: Cox, White (Leunberger & Cartledge)
Forwards: Didak, Porplyzia, J Brown, Deledio, Pavlich, Rioli, Dew (Tippet & Valenti)
not a saints fan ken. i just have faith in gram coming good..and he has looked alot better over the last 3 weeks. i recon he will average 70-75 between now and end of the season and il take that, considering trades are low at this stage of the season
What do you guys reckon about picking up Chad? Is he back and going to keep playing? Or should I keep Wonna
Or even pick up Heath Shaw?
or get rid of ellis?
To all,
currently in top 50. 3 trades . 57 000
thinking ibbo>drummond(not many top teams have him and most have ibbo scoring)
then either:
palmer>bartel in 2 weeks (likely) and sit on 1 trade
OR…take a bigger punt and go
palmer>mitchell in few weeks
simmonds>white
and sit on no trades last 5/6 rounds
I would rather come 500 trying to win or finish top 10
than sit back and come 50th
well thats how i play anyway
what do you guys think ?
go for it . or not??
i think not. i recon palmer to mitchel is borderline on sideways trade..not on their quality as afl players..but on there recent DT quality.
simmonds to white is similar to a lesser extent. ibbo to drummond is decent, but unless they are the only trades that you want to do…id keep a couple for injuries.
what does everyone think about mitchell he was at 400k at one stage this season and with a few bad games his cheap as. worth watching?
who are the bargain midfielders who will be even cheaper next week boys?
fair call
thanks for the reply to
drummond does worry with me injuries obvisly
but i still might take the risk
palmer>mitchell is sideways to in my opinion
unless mitchell can get some cheap marks in coming weeks
the reason for it was white will(has/is) getting 17/18 ppg more than simmo. which is alot really(no top teams have white)
but will likely get drummond this week or next
then hopefully sneak bartel in 2 weeks aswell
and sit on 1 trade haha
im pickin up Callan Ward this week 4 n takin out Steven Browne which will giv me 107k 2 upgrade sumwhere else nxt week
Just putting it ot there,
although mcloud did get an alright score,
he still got one ofthe worst in his team and did well v hawks. againsnt most other oppositions they wont do as well and he’l struggle again.
my backlines weak though; gilbee, ibbo, heath, birchall, symes, bock, matner (urquart).. so looking to trade out ibbo and maybe mattner.. anyone looked at Mcphee? or any other good values..
dylan, i think mitchell is a good option at the moment as i am considering him as an upgrade too.. although, he will probably come down even more this week with a breakeven of 118, which is quite gettable for him but based on his recent form i don’t see it happening. (dont take my word for it though) .. along with mcleod i think he should be a serious consideration to free up some cash this week.
Who’s the best prospect between Burgoyne and Milburn. They are nearly identical in their cost and points scored/averages.
I figure I can’t go wrong either way but thought I’d get a few opinions. Most top sides seem to have both players.
Further to the above - the person going out for either Milburn or Burgoyne is Xavier Ellis or Brett Jones. I think between the two, Jones has probably underperformed the most (but has a slightly better average thanks to a good score at the start of the season)
I’m keen to upgrade T Cloke (the last weak link in my forward line) to Chapman this week, but I note that Chapman has BE of 122. Do you reckon it would be better to wait a week (on the assumption that Chapman will be cheaper next week), and utilise Morton who is on standby?
what do people think of Butler? Thinking of downgrading Gibbs to him who i would keep if ratten was gonna put him in the mid but keeps giving him jobs