Welcome to a brand new article on DT Talk, “Price Check” - where Chad looks at the market and who you should keep your eye on!
DEFENDERS
West Coasts Matthew Spangher has a BE of -29 this week after averaging 46 in 2 games. Matt Riggio from the Roos has a BE of-23, Scott D Thompson is -18 if he gets a game, and Kepler Bradley has a BE of -5 and an average of 76. On the other end of the scale the Synthetic man Nick Malceski has a BE of 189 after averaging 47 in his 2 games this year. DT Talks own Super Chad has a BE of 154 (despite scoring 91 against shutdown Sydney). The one to keep an eye on though could be Andrew McLeod. The past 2 weeks he has had an opponent, and has struggled with scores of 33 and 26. This means his price has lost 72k in the past fortnight (now at 286k) and gives him a BE of 157 this week. Baring a massive ton, in a couple of weeks he may be at the 200-250k mark and could help relieve any back pain.
MIDFIELDERS
Sharrod Wellingham added 58k to his rookie starting price this week, with another solid hitout. Currently averaging 73, he still has a break even of -54. Another solid hitout could the cash cow fatten up. South Australian Bradley Ebert put in his best game scoring 135 against the side that passed him up at the draft. After his 48k price rise he has a BE of -48 meaning there is another massive rise coming up. Trent Cotchin the number 2 selection at the draft last year put up a 49 this week following his 66 the week before, meaning his BE next week is a -25. He is certainly a downgrade possibility for any cows that have fattened up.
FORWARDS
Another solid effort from rookie listed Shane Valenti who is averaging 58 puts his BE at -62. With many cows maturing (Rioli, Gamble, Hill) Valenti is sure to become a popular inclusion. West Coast’s Ryan Davis also has a BE of -20 after averaging 37, and the other negative break even this week isn’t a rookie. Johnathon Brown after 2 solid (and well overdue) games, has a BE this week of -3, so if you haven’t already, jump on the big fella.
EDIT: A link with all the Break Evens for Round 10 is now available. Defenders | Midfielders | Forwards | Rucks
I got good trade coming up.
Morton-Cotchin
Houli-Bartel
looks good and next week im up grading ellis so its looking up.
thanks Chad
Looking to upgrade some people this week… Any cheap upgrades?
Nick Riewoldt…
what is houli’s breakeven???
Still looking into the trades for this week in BUT, in SC, i am looking at (yummy):
Out= Hill
In= Valenti(cash)
Out K Cornes
In GABLETT
Cornes does not perform anywhere near as well in SC as he does in DT, i am also in the need of a consistant CAPT (as well as having Cox), so i dont think it is a wasted trade, IS IT ???
Riewoldt still has a high BE of 124ish, so if you can wait a couple of weeks he will get cheaper.
Houli has a BE of around 80 I believe.
why get rid of Kane???? WHAT? To gain 10 pts???
thenks Chad, does anyone know if Scott D Thompson is a chance of a game this week?
He is talking about SC warnie, Gablett is highest scoring player in SC (avg 130) and Kane is 86th overall, lost 168k and averages 86.
Yer thats it Chad, in SC he is nowhere near as good…
I am not one to “waste” trades but i am seriously thinking of this one…
By the way in DT i am thinking :
Out Hill in Valenti (cash)
But im unsure whether to upgrade Gamble(forw) or Griffo(Mid)
Which one you reckon ??
depends if you have gamble in your 22. If you have gamble in 22, maybe upgrade him, if gamble is an emergency then i would upgrade Griffo to a gun.
I have Gamble in 22 with what “will be” Valenti and Tippett on bench, so Tippett can come in if need be..
Griffo is on the bench at the minute(with Bird), so he is wasted there as well..
If i go Out= Hill,In= Valenti, i can offload Griffo for PRIDDIS..
What do ya think of that one ???
scott: Slim to none. Can’t see SDT getting back into the team at all unless the Roos get a backline injury or unless he goes on a great run in the twos (at least 3 great games in a row, probably more). Even then you would think that once Jesse Smith returns from injury and gets natch fitness back, SDT would lose his spot again.
Anyone know gamble’s break even
around 67 for Gamble to BE
gamble BE 67
Out:hodge in Swan
Out:murphy in Richo
With Hodgey back in a week or two, i would hang onto him if you have the bench to cover him, if no bench to cover fair enough…
With the Murphy/Richo one, i see it as a wasted trade…
dont trade murph…
mickey mcleod….. im watching you
Is Jarryd Morton a temp or is he likely to get regular games?
Bird -> Cotchin = not much
whereas
Tippett -> Morton = $100k
Already got Valenti
Dan.
Why haven;t you listed riewoldt? he’ll be 300k in a few weeks, and hes an absolute gun
gamble has a break even of 111.
Riewoldt also has a break even of 111.
Should I pull the switch now? dont want gamble to lose more money than Nick will…
those b/es are according to fanfooty.com by the way - accurate?
i dont think so.
ffgenie says -
gamble is 67 BE
reiwoldt is 123 BE
I know this question has been asked before, but is there a chance Valenti can be taken off the list and placed back on the rookie list? If so I’ll pick up Cotchin.
Thanks to anyone who answers
thanks Lee - might hold off then. cheers
there is a chance he will when Grimes returns. At this stage, I would guess Demons would keep Wonaemirri promoted rather than Valenti.
Can dt talk please make a post about b/e’s
I keep seeing people make trades based on fanfooty’s breakevens- i dont know where monty plucks them from because theyre wayyy off
So yeah can you say something to clear things up
Hey guys,
I would appreciate some help…
I have seriously screwed up and have only four trades left.
Out Hawkins for Valenti so free up some cash
Out Patful for Wona or Ibbotson
OR
Out Osborne for Thompson or Goodwin
OR
Should wait few rounds before make any other trades regarding patful(back) and osbourne (mid)
focus on next year Veshvi
hj, i haven’t mentioned riewoldt just yet, it is a weekly segment so he will no doubt get a mention in the next few weeks, especially if his knee looks a bit better.
If you have four trades left, unless your very best players get season ending injuries I wouldn’t be trading for probably two months..
Chris, i have updated the post with links at the bottom to pages with the Break Evens.
can anyone give me B/E’s from FFgenie for:
richo
pav
BJ
ling
bartel
joel bowden
would be greatly appreciated as i cant get it to work
pav 113
bartel 139
richo 124
bj 79
ling 97
bowden 108
thanks chad, are they from FFgenie ?
can anyone give me B/E’s from FFgenie for:
richo - 124
pav - 113
BJ - 79
ling - 97
bartel - 139
joel bowden - 108
beat me to it!
Jared: yep
What to people think about Bowden? High BE and plays Sydney this week. Worth jumping on in 2 weeks time? I am certainly considering it.
what you guys pull the trigger on
rioli >> BJ
47 v 79 breakevens
fair chance BJ could get cambell brown this week, who would be/is a tough opponet
if its not this week it will probably be the next
thoughts ?
Why exactly are the BE scores from The Genie different to those from the DT Talk BE Calculator? DT Talk Calculator has Gamble’s BE at around 53pt mark.
hey i am going to downgrade probley tippett this week it was out of him or kennedy from west coast but i think kennedy has better potential but i dont no who i should upgrade out of
out kennelly and in drummond
or
out kruzer and in charman
i was thinking drummond because he was a good dt player last year and i think he can get his b/e every easy this week. who would everyone else go for?
kdtf depends on who you have in your team and how much cash you have. I haven’t seen t he Tigers games past couple of weeks, would want to see what position he plays in.
hey smerg the dt talk calculator is not 100% its about 97-99% right thats why it would be different
and jared i did the rioli swap for johnson and his been getting a good average score and he might be able to lift to what he was like last year so i would do that.
Thanks chad, you’re a gun!
Perfect
anychance of gettin the value of the players included in the breakeven tables?
Thinking of downgrading Symes to Houlihan (I’m not sure he can return to his previous form, and if he does it will take a while) and playing Wonnaeamirri for a couple more weeks.
Spend the Symes money on upgrading Jack and Masten to Kane Cornes and Jimmy Bartel, and then upgrading Wonnaeamirri to Bowden (after watching him for the next couple of weeks), or someone else who is good value at the time.
I decided against trading for Wellingham last week, as I was holding out for Cotchin this week.
Now that this week has arrived, would you guys recommend trading for Wellingham or Cotchin? I note that Wellingham’s break even is more enticing than Cotchin’s (for this week anyway).
PS. What would be the minimum amount of trades you would like to have at this stage. I have 10 at the moment and would like to make 2 more this week, before staying quiet for at least a couple of weeks.
I reckon Wellingham would be a better trade than Cotchin. He has another gave up his sleeve and is only $20k more expensive than Cotchin…
the thing with trades is it really is all dependent on luck. i believe there is no way to determine what should be the “correct” amount of trades needed at this point. you can have 4 left and get lucky for the rest of the season. you can have 13 left and never trade again. i am taking the approach that i have 10 left, my team is almost there (still have ibbot and wonna startin) but content to let this ride for 2 or 3 weeks unless injuries. due to the erratic nature of the backline this year I see no clear advantage in trading wona or ibbot up to say a osbourne, birchall, or whoever. esp because they havent hit there max. i am also taking the approach of doing well on the national rankings. If u r focusing on your league then holding trades could be more crucial. Also many of the poor performing teams will be looking to debut youngsters in the next 3 weeks so don’t have the mentality to pick up cotchin now because u have to. There will be another cotchin in the next 3 weeks.
who would everyone downgrade this week out of tippett or josh kennedy from west coast? im thinking of upgrading kruzer to charman or kenelly to drummond
Dylan: Kennelly to Drummond is almost a sideways trade. If you have Kruezer in your starting team then I’d upgrade him instead. I don’t know about Charman being the right pick either (although he is cheap). You could probably do a better trade than both of these.
Jonathon: True, rookies will start getting games the whole way through the year. I think people are wanting to get Cotchin based on his drat pick and also because he plays for Richmond. Richmond should play him through most of the year though.
i do have kruezer starting and who would u get for kruezer? i could get my money up to about $370,000 and they only reason i thought of charman is becasue i dont think he is playing at him best atm and he can get better, and the reason i want to get rid of kennelly is because he is always injured this year and when he does play he has not got many good scores while last year dummond was a very good backline player in dt and looked ok on the weekend after coming back from injury.
jonathon you are a DT god and that is why you are so high on the national rankings. Your insight into the world of DT is unparalleled
just wondering whether people think if chad cornes price will go up or down after round 10?? PEACE
Dylan: I would look at getting Simmonds or Fraser (but not this week) over Charman if you can get $370k. If you don’t need to trade now maybe see how Brad Ottens goes for the Cats. I don’t trust his foot though.
Also apart from last week Drummond hasn’t been that great, it might be worth waiting the extra week and getting McLeod instead. Drummond isn’t going to change much in price this week unless he really rips it up so you don’t have to rush.
David: Chad will go down maybe $15k-$30k next game unless he gets a huge score this week.
ok thanks ed for the info i will look at dummond an little more along with the ruck u mentioned. been a Adelaide supporter i got mcleod at the start of the season wish i had of waited to get him at like next week. big bargain
dylan, is he a bargin? he only gets points when he is a free man, he doesn’t like the hard ball, or having an opponent. He will only go back to big scores if other sides leave him un-manned. wonder how often that will happen?
should get a good score this week though because Essendon are the worst side in the AFL at the moment (sorry warnie).
Yeah, I’ve got the Roo, warnie.
Might go for Chappy or something.
Who is a better downgrade option - Palmer or Ibbotson (i have to trade one!) who who should i downgrade for - Cotchin or Valenti?
Mr Boobies - I’d keep Palmer. Proven big scorer. He’s a keeper. But Cotchin and Valenti??? Cotchin is a far better chance to play out the rest of the season (how long will Valenti last?), but he’s $50,000 more expensive…
You’ll be glad you paid the extra $50,000 if in 2-3 weeks, Valenti is back in the twos and his price is stuck around $150,000…
Who would others pick, Cotchin or Valenti?
I’d pick Cotchin for sure over Valenti, unless you really need the cash now or you never plan on playing/trading them again.
also…who to get: J Brown or B Fevola??? HELP
JB dont even think about it david
Brown!
hey chad were u speaking about mcleod for a bargin? if so i think he would be because he runs of his backline player alot and can set up a forward line players. But with his age and getting tagged he might still slow down a bit. but i cant say much since i go for Adelaide and mcleod is my faverote player but if i was u i would look at picking him up in a few weeks when his break even goes down to a score which is possible for him to get.
I need to upgrade Jonathon Griffin from the crows. He’s currently on the field. He’s has peaked at 248k as he has a BE next week of 98. Which ruckmen will be best targets? Charman 247k, Lade 274k, Kosch 292k, Hille 295k or maybe even jump on Simmonds? any others?
I wouldn’t trade in Bartel this week … He’s going down in price (or not changing) … The person to upgrade to this week in Priddis - Underpriced and averaging the same almost as Bartel but he is about $30000 cheaper.
Should I upgrade Houli to Priddis?
Or should I upgrade Taylor to someone like Johncock, Birchall or Sam Fisher to name a few.
just on wellingham, wasnt he on the rookie list at the start of the season, wats his chances of staying up for the rest of the year because someone would need 2 be on the long term injury list?
TAC come off the rokkie list 4 eitha brad dick or sean rusling who r both out 4 the yr so TAC will keep playin
Sassy I would go for Hille. I’ve got Simmonds, and he is good, but a bit unreliable. Plus with Hille you’re gunna save about 30k.
Brendan, it depends if you’ve got Taylor as a starter. If so, I would look at upgrading him to Johncock, who is coming good after a slow start to the year. If Taylor’s on your bench though, go for Priddis.
wat about this one:
out tippett in valenti
out tredrae in BUDDY LOVE
thoughts??
Do it Bena….
Buddy’s the gun forward of the year
Just wait a week on the Tredrae to Buddy move. Tredrae is about to go up and Buddy’s BE is pretty high. You’d have to do the Valenti trade this week though.
SC trade this week
OUT: Barlow
IN: S.Fisher
and in DT
OUT: Stanton
IN: Corey
What about Jake King. whats his BE this week?
I think he will drop to 325k soon… not bad for a top DT backman ey?
thinking - out, houli in gun… or out, houli in youngster 4 cash next week…then next week maybe thompson and ibbotson upgrade…WHAT SHOULD I DO????!!! HELP!!
I’m thinking of trading out Masten this week for Cotchin and using the cash to upgrade Cam Wight to Chad Cornes.
Alternatively, hold off on Chad for a week and downgrade Thompson/Rioli to Valenti and then get Chad and another gun forward next week.
Being in Eliminator makes me want to get Chad ASAP though!
Boobies - why would you have to trade one of either Ibbo or Palmer. They are both scoring so well this year they are outperforming many of the so-called DT ‘Guns’!! I wouldn’t worry too much about missing the Cotchin or Valenti ‘boat’. As Johnathon said, there will be many more rookies coming through as the season progresses so don’t get too caught up in the hype over high draft choices. Palmer and Ibbo both still have plenty of cash to be made I would think as well.
kdtf - I would be very wary of the Houlihan trade, the Eagles have been bloody lots of youngsters off their list and none of them are guaranteed of getting regular games, plus there are guys like Kerr, Hansen, Graham, Macnamara, Butler, Hurn and Waters to come back into the side so a lot of the rookies and DT coaches may find themselves out in the cold with non-scoring players.
Add Hunter and Mark Le Cras to that Eagles list as well.
The only reason i need to downgrade either palmer or ibbo is to get enough cash for the tippet - chapman trade. Whilst i lose about 30k cashing one of them in early it is underweighed by the fact i can get Chappers now and save about that much when his price rises next week. The added bonus is i take Chapman’s score instead of Palmer/Ibbo’s.
My backline: Shaw, Birchall, Milburn, Mattner, Gram, Brett Jones, Ibbotson.
This week or in the next 2 weeks, Gram is going to be changed to Chad Cornes.
When should i pull the plug in peoples opinions?
Also should i look to add Jono Brown to my FWD line who have been performing well (Except Burton last rd but ill forgive him):
Franklin, Didak, Pavlich, Deledio, Porplyzia, Burton, Akermanis
Its very unique so i thought it may be smart to keep it that way.
Thoughts on both:
> When to trade Gram for Chad Cornes? And…
> Do i need Jono Brown?
Any opinions on nick malceski?
Quality backman and in a few weeks could be extremely cheap. Still not sure about his knee though.
whos better jake king, jordan mcmahon graham johncock or darren milburn