True story: One of my colleagues this week cut the head off a rooster that reckoned 5am was a reasonable hour at which to wake. In typical chook fashion, the little blighter continued to run around my mate’s backyard long after its head had been lopped off. I had to ask: “Was his name Cale Morton?” You see, along with Josh Going Down Hill, Melbourne midfielder Morton was a seemingly peaked rookie who should have got the chop last week. However, unlike Hill (47 paltry points), Morton pulled a “headless chook”, running around to rack up 95 points in round 8. That added another $7000 to his price tage and sent his breakeven spiralling back down to 25. Read on to see who else you should pick up, who you should stick with (for now), and who you should give the shove.
Three or more gamers
A lot of these dudes are peaking now, or are close to it. There are even a few with breakevens bigger than their averages. The worst offender is Going Down Hill (76 breakeven, 64 average), followed by Cyril Rioli (74 b/e, 71 avg), Craig Bird (53 b/e, 47 avg) and, if he can break back into the Hawks line-up, Cameron Stokes (49 b/e, 47). Unless Hill can do a “headless chook”, he’s clearly priority no.1. Bird and Rioli look to have hit their ceiling, too, but Rioli’s healthy 71 means-point average means you should only be trading him if you’ve got the chance to pick up an undervalued premium (like Paul Chapman), or you don’t want to miss the boat on a tasty two-game rookie (see Wellingham and Myers below). Elsewhere, Matthew Kreuzer, Chris Masten, Sam Lonergan, Nathan J. Brown and Clint Bartram all look capable of rising a little more, but only a little. The rest - including Steven Browne (despite a disappointing third game), Jarrhan Jacky, Austin Wonaeamirri, Brad Ebert, Shane Mumford, Garrick Ibbotson, Ryan Gamble, Kurt Tippett, David Mackay, Harry Taylor, David Armitage, Kieren Jack and rookie superstar Rhys Palmer - all have very getable breakevens and should continue making you moolah in round 9. Oh, and it’s worth noting that Jarryn Geary was second emergency for the Saints last week, in case you were tempted to offload the early-season bolter.Two gamers
Big price rises await these boys if they can earn another dip this weekend. The pickings are pretty slim, but the good news is that, apart from the ruck, there’s someone available in every position. After rounds of 66 and 71, Collingwood centre Sharrod Wellingham is eyeing off a $50,000 hike. And, at $72,600, they don’t come any cheaper. More expensive are Sydney forward Henry Playfair (not technically a rookie, but in the rookie price bracket) and Essendon defender David Myers, although both should jump by anywhere between $30k and $40k. Like all rookies, consider how long they’ll stay in their respective teams before taking the plunge. Particularly risky are Bombers pair Jay Neagle and Darcy Daniher, who have had less-than-impressive scores of 57 and 32 (Neagle, fwd/bac) and 16 and 38 (Darcy, fwd).
One gamers
Promising Richmond rook Trent Cotchin almost added to his tally of VFL games last week before a late call-up see him finally debut for the “proper” Tigers. A couple of goals and a DT score of 66 makes him an enticing prospect next week. The coaches who took a punt on Melbourne rookie Shane Valenti were rewarded with a solid 60-point return, but the biggest debut score was by Matt Riggio, who nabbed 73 for the Roos. His teammate, Alan Obst, managed just 11 points before getting hurt, while West Coast defender Ryan Davis (listed as forward in DT, grrr), picked up 39 DTs. Hey, it’s more than Mark Nicoski can scrape together!Note: Breakevens, actual worth, expected price changes and other vital statistics drawn from Grimlock’s ass-kicking FF Genie.
bloody awesome read - as always Chook!!
i think Valenti will be one of the most picked rookies - well, for people that take it seriously… the option of being a FWD or a MID is so handy!! he will certainly be making his debut (on the pine) for the Warne Dawgs this week…
thought about wellingham… not convinced he will stay on the list… some quick easy money for him you would think!! and can rack them up!!
happy to be offloading josh going down hill this week… but not so happy offloading cyril to bring in chapman… ahh… such is DT!
Got my boy Valenti 3 weeks ago when Hill peaked. Loving that decision.
top post. will be looking at valenti this week. got to get hill off my team. would be very bitter if he pulls a cale morton and racks them up thou. i am weary off DUI wellingham. too many players on collingwoods list who are fighting for that one position.
Im considering getting valenti, but wont he be busted back to the vfl once grimes comes off the long term injury list in 3-4 weeks? I would think the way wona has been playing valenti doesnt have much of a chance. What does everyone else reckon?
Don’t know why the love for Valenti, there’s been plenty of rookie options in the mids and fwds this year who won’t go back to the rookie list after a handful of games.
Regarding 2-game rookies: I hear Jake Edwards kicked a bag in the twos last week and might be in line for another run in the seniors, any Carlton fans able to confirm/deny?
Heh, I forgot Riggio is in DT as a BACK even though he’s playing pure midfield for the Roos, and only 112k even though he played a couple of games last year. On that performance he might get some extra TOG next week too.
Potentially the mid-year buy of the season if he can keep it up. Kennelly for Riggio frees up a lot of money….
on ya chook
i was one of the lucky ones who sold Hill when he was at his highest value
considering knocking off gamble or dew for valenti next week..and then upgrading cyril.
i hope jake edwards gets a callup, USELESS prick!
I hope he doesn’t get the callup, he’s getting the chop from my team this week unless named.. and quite frankly might get the chop anyway.. he’s a waste of space in my already thin backline..
USELESS Prick!!
Hoping Edwards gets a game this week, otherwise he’s getting the Choparoo and David Myers will be getting a chance to impress Coach Morts
Vezspremi????
top post chook as usual
thinking of upgrading cyril
will have 365 , so not enough to get chappy (N)
thoughts on who i should get ?
gia/o’keefe/BJ/N.brown ??
If you don’t have Valenti, no reason to get him this week! Myers is the one for me as you can get him to fill in your “Bad back” problem.
Will also probably get wellingham this week. Risky but worth it at this stage.
My trades are fast disappearing! Damm you Barry Hall!
Molly
@ Jared .. Im looking to upgrade my forward line too with O’keefe and BJ in mind. Leaning towards O’keefe cause BJ is still playing with an injury according to Eades post match interview.
i can afford the follow players for beau water
any ideas who i should go for, lot of choice
STEVENS, Scott
$304,400
MCPHEE, Adam
$304,000
OSBORNE, Michael
$303,900
LADSON, Rick
$302,700
NEWMAN, Chris
$302,600
BRADSHAW, Daniel
$302,600
ROUGHEAD, Jarryd
$302,000
i had Myres, valenti and woriminiminimini from the start… Already sold Hill. Got Cotchin now.
Tough one Brett. I would probably go with Ladson.
Molly
Brett I would go with Osbourne there.
top post there chook
for a decent summary of the wk just gone i found this http://diehardfooty.com/afl-fantasy-dream-team-round-8-wrap
anyone doing premium dream team?
Informative post thanks.
Going to downgrade Cyril to bump up someone in my defence.
I will be able to afford any defender in the game.
Looking at Heath Shaw as he is top scorer, but thinking that may be a bit obvious. Is he a good long term bet, or is he just going through a good patch?
What about Malceski? (although would be worried about his gore-tex knee blowing up!)
Any other premium defenders worth considering?
i wouldnt go malceski yet, his knee is still suspect in my mind, and chances are he will drop a lot in price over the next few weeks cause of his limited game time. might be a good investment later in the season though.
and get shaw he is a very handy guy to have down back
Go Heath for Shaw!
That’s if you already have Cornes, otherwise get on him.
I need advice. I have a backline at the moment like this:
Cornes
Shaw
King
Osborne
Milburn
Ellis
Jones
Bench: Nathan J brown, Harry Taylor.
I was looking at making some cash this week with a trade to myers etc and perhaps upgrading somewhere else etc BUT my dilemna is whether to trade brown/taylor, or whether to trade Brett jones instead and make more cash. Does anyone see any justification in that? Im happy with my backline, but do you think it can carry taylor’s scores for example if i trade out jones.
4 brett
get scott stevens, the crows play the ball around the backline a lot and he or bock are usualy the spare man that drops in the hole in defense = many marks
brett jones is averaging 69. harry taylor is averaging 54. assuming they both play the year out and keep to their averages you would need to make up at least 15 points a game in order to make that extra cash work. so if you trade a midfielder averaging 70 up to a bartel or similar averaging 110 using that cash it makes your team 25 points per round better off. which is good. but if you want to make the trade just to free up cash for later it might not be worth your while
Lloyd could be a man to watch in the next few weeks. Currently 280k with a BE of 90 next week against Richmond - should come close. I think he is a superstar, but he could struggle this season with bad form, injury and the fact he plays for Essendon. Thoughts?
Whats Myers chance of retaining his spot in the Bombers side???
With Scott Lucas back in the next few weeks i think you could see a different Essendon in the last half of the year, Jobe watson back this week, it will definitely be a big game against the tigers…cant see Knights going easy against his old club.
Wellingham was a rookie right. Who was he elevated for and how long till that guy returns? Also he’s looked good so far but will he keep getting a game?
Cheers
fred
How good is my backline!!
C.Cornes
H.Shaw
King
P.Burgoyne
McLeod
Gilbee
Bradshaw
Tez,
Scotty is so acurate and love him in Adelaide but isnt a Dt premium..
Bock was the loose man down back last week..
I would go Osborne.
Guys these are my Trades;
This week
OUT: Houli, Rioli
IN: Chapmen, Cotchin
Next week
OUT: Palmer, Gamble
IN: Swan, Franklin
I will only have 50k in bank but that means that my forward line and midfield are all the goods.
Will look like this;
Swan, Corey, Ablett, Stevens, Judd, Cornes
and my forward line
Franklin, Chapman, R.Murphy, Brown, Porps, Pav and Fevola
Need some advise..
I have mentioned above…I’m gettting Cotchi (Love this kid! Good luck for him Tigers supporters) but I can get Wellingham (is that his name) intsted of him.
Not only I get an extra 40k in the bank BUT this might able me to upgrade Palmer –> Bartel next week.
The only problem is I already have Corey & Gablett..
EVeryone knows Bartel is >>>>(bigger than) Swan but is it worth it??
Cheers
What the hell Lucas!
You have to be jking
i think weelingham was elevated 4 rusling or dick who r both out 4 yr so hill get games…also which trade is betta
OUT:stanton
IN:bartel
or
OUT:jack riewoldt
IN:fevola
Marc Murphy in this week for me.
Bartel/Corey (Probably Bartel) in 2 weeks time.
Valenti in next week.
Good times.
Nathan…why get rid of Stanton?
Is it just because you want Bartel?
And dont get Fev…can you get someone else..um..buddy
im only thinkin bout gettin ridda stanton coz he cant handle a tag but yes hopefully mcveigh n watson bein in will stop that tag thats y i am thinkin of getting rid of mckinley or j.riewoldt
also could get rid of bird n get wellingham n get rid of j.riewoldt n bring in any fwd except richo
Any Hawks or DT pro’s got an opinion on Michael Osbourne? Nice average this year and I need a replacement for Guerra.
Any thoughts on H Playfair from Sydney? Only 120k good value i would have thought but undecided.
there is no point in bringing in Marc Murphy, in my view guys like Chapman and Scotland are much options.
Hammer, maybe trade Guerra for Gilbee. His form hasn’t been great of late and has a BE of 115. He’l turn it around in the second half of the season.
lozza,
theres absolutely no problem having the 3 highest averaging players in your midfield even if they are on the same team. that is one kickass midfield. that said, i reckon cotchin is going to be far better a pick up than wellingham and guarranteed to get a game all year so you wont have emergency problems.
why are you upgrading palmer though. bartel and swan are far better than him, sure, but couldnt you put the $100 or so K to better use in the backline upgrading a mid-ranger to a rookie? palmer sohuld guarrantee you around 80 pts each week.
nathan,
stanton should rip this week. no richmond tagger to take him out of the game - look at how loose they left ablett last week. keep him. thats what im doing at least.
upgrade jreiwoldt to a murphy or chapman rather than fev. he cant kick 6+ goals every week.
hahah, upgrading a mid to a premium i meant.
Hi,
Trades im considering this week.
OUT: Nick Riewoldt
IN: Paul Chapman
&
OUT: Josh Hill
IN: Henry Playfair
Then in a few weeks time downgrade Browne, and trade Pfieffer (is he getting a game) for Chad Cornes.
Any thoughts?
mark murphy is a jet, sassy. hes only got less than 90 once and it was a respectable 81. plus hes got more than 100 in half his games. hes getting it so easy with judd in the midfield - for his price i reckon hes a great pick. swan is the only other id really look at in that 400ish range.
kieran, why would you get rid of riewoldt now -chances are hes coming back this week. i think reiwoldts a keeper anyway even if his price is falling. can you trade anyone else to get chappo in? the playfair hill trades a good one, but have you though about valenti? frees up an extra $50k.
i’m not convinced
Chappers all the way
thanks luke, do you think valenti will be a keeper though?
& who do you think I should trade for Chapman out of: Didak, Buddy, J Brown, N Reiwoldt, Tredrea, O’Loughlin ?
definately Tredrea.
yeah and hopefully in 2 - 3 weeks Browne has peaked and Cornes has dropped.
Also need help with my backline:
Shaw, McLeod, Ibbo, Osborne, Taylor, Bradshaw, Pfieffer.
Im trading pfieffer for Cornes in a few weeks. Any backs who could be a possible replacement for Taylor?
if you can trade tredrea or o’loughlin for chapman then youre laughing. definitely one of those two.
Cheers Hodgey
Ill wait for Palmer to peak but ill do the other trades
would be interestd 2 hear bout ideas on myers v riggio 4 the backline problem
Fitz - What is your backline?
I’m trying to decide who out of Symes and Waters to trade for Milburn…..
Both those 2 are risky for a long term solution for your backline troubles. Personally, I wouldnt touch a Kangaroo rookie with a barge pole…….
Myers is probably a SLIGHTLY safer option, but still very risky.
guys, i have 385,000 in the bank at the moment. not sure which trades to do.
either:
OUT: hawkins
IN: franklin
and
OUT: rioli
IN: richardson
OR
OUT: hawkins
IN: franklin
and
OUT: dean brogan
IN: dean cox
???????????????????????any thoughts
Bozzy, definitely Brogan for Cox, Cox is a must, 9/10 he will score over 90 and Rioli is still scoring at around 75 points.
Does anyone have an view on Playfair. i do like him for the money 120k, main doubt is whether he will keep getting a game. i think could be a good out for Hill. Anyone??
yeah Higgo I had the same problem but decided that for 50K less I could get Valenti who will get a game most weeks. Playfair wont play much once Big Bad Barry Hall is back.
cyril offloaded for giansiracusa who has an average of 92 and will get more if the dogs keep winning. dont forget fev, very handy. go fev
Why does CHOOK get such a big picture??
Oh by the way Chook, Rockets won by 22 tonight!
Boys I need your help…
Am going to trade Bird down yo Wellingham this week and have the following dilemma.
N. Jones up to Swan
or
Gram up to H. Shaw
Let me know what ya think. Love this site!!! DT Talk is fuckn awesome!!!
Uncle_Stan_Stan - both good upgrades!!
Personally, umm, Id go Gram to Shaw. Jones has posted some ok numbers and will get better…then get rid of him later. Gram has been solid but you NEED Heath Shaw!! Fix that backline then ya mids!!
yeah im with calvin for that uncle_stan_stan.
i was wondering weither it would be worth downgrading a player in my foward like tippett for henry playfair? but will henry playfair keep his spot in the side?
Henry must be a chance to make way for Bazza when he returns. Still, that’s probably enough weeks away to get a decent return on Playfair.
Three of the guys who debuted last week - Valenti, Riggio and Cotchin - are tempting enough that I’m thinking about bringing one in this week so that I can get ‘em all. All three play in the middle (despite Valenti being listed as a forward as well, and Riggio listed as a back), and we all know the middle of the ground is the most fertile, DT-wise.
However, all three have major drawbacks. Cotchin and Riggio ain’t cheap, seeing as one was a high draft pick and the other has played a couple of games already. And Riggio plays for North Melbourne, who are coached by Dean Laidley, who is a knob when it comes to giving games to kids. And Valenti has rookie-list issues to overcome.
Massive upside to these boys, but big risks, too.
yeah, havin a serious look at valenti, just need him to warm pine for me while i go on a massive run for finals!! im 0-5!!
my midfield is
cross
goodwin
judd
stevens
mitchell
palmer
hodge(bench)
i wanted to get rid of someone and put palmer in the team when hodge gets back any thoughts on who to get rid of
Thoughts on these trades:
This week:
OUT: Bird, Rioli
IN: Wellingham, Pavlich
Next round or the round after:
OUT: 1 out of Mattner and Gram
IN: Chad Cornes (Bottomed out hopefully)
Will still leave me with 40k in the bank and 9 trades.
Plus
CTR: Corey, Cross, Kornes, Salopek, Stevens, Palmer (Browne/Wellingham)
FWD: Franklin, Didak, Burton, Porplyzia, Deledio, Akermanis, Pavlich (Tippett/Gamble)
I was considering Cotchin instead of Wellingham but then i read up a bit on Wellingham and not only does the extra 40K+ entice me. But i trust Malthouse to give a rookie gametime moreso than Wallace with a No.1 Pick like Cotchin.
I also like my fwd line cos despite it not having the “guns” like Riewoldt, Johnson and Brown, all those players except aker (avgs 80) avg above 85. It also is different to the other people in the top 100 so its a risk u have to take to have a chance of going up in rankings.
Thoughts on those trades though?
Thanks in advance
AdamG03