The “Magic Number” and How It Works
Ok… So players are a certain price for a reason. Obviously you are paying more for a player who is a gun, and less for a rookie or a crap DTer (well, duh). The prices are based on the player’s average from 2007 where the “magic number” is multiplied by said average and their price is therefore calculated.
In 2007 the salary cap was $6.94 million and in 2008 it is likely to be more than $7.43 million. Last year the “magic number” used to calculate DT prices was $3,927. This year, it seems to be about $4,355*. So, if a player averages 100pts per game, then their price will be $435,500.
Player’s prices fluctuate due to form. To put it simply, they will increase or decrease from performances in their last 3 games. The formulas for working out all player prices are below:
Initial Price = “Magic Number” x Ave Pts in 2007
Recent Market Value = “Magic Number” x Ave Pts in last 3 games
New Price = (3/4 x Current Price) + (1/4 x Recent Market Value)
Rookies, players who haven’t played enough games or missed a fair chunk (if not all of last season) will have dramatically reduced prices. You’re task is to find which dudes are going to going to score more than what their price says they are worth. ie. A player’s price says they are a 60 point per game player but in round one and two they have scored two hundreds, then they are going to go up in value (and go down if they are sucking). Monty’s FanPlanner on his sensational website has all of the player prices in there, so get on it… select your team now!
During the season, check out FanFooty.com.au because each player will have a “Break Even” target to reach. If they smash it, they will go up in value, if they don’t, then their price will slide. Be keen… not long now!
* That’s what I’ve come up with. It should be pretty close according to the prices in the AFL Prospectus.
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Trackbacks
- DT TALK | AFL Dream Team Blog 2008 » A Rookie’s Guide to AFL Dream Team 2008
- DT TALK | AFL Dream Team Blog » The Break Evens
- DT TALK | AFL Dream Team Blog » Should I trade in someone who has already gone up?
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Awesome post warnie, thanks for clearing up how it all works and the formula’s.
no worries chad! it’s good to see exactly how they work out the new prices after the 3 games…
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